Record diesel and Brent near $100 sharpen inflation risk; AI optics/photonics re-rate on Goldman upgrades, Korean memory trades at 4.8x with 50%+ HBM hikes expected, and the Fed path hinges on CPI as convexity lifts long-end yields.
US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg Island and Houthi attacks on Saudi sites pushed Brent toward $100. Hormuz crude flows are roughly half pre-war levels; US distillate stocks are at 25-year lows and diesel cracks hit a record $106. Goldman sees $120 Brent if disruption persists into 2027, while some traders argue attacking Iran's export base is bearish once retaliation fades.
Goldman raised optical module market forecasts to $67.7B for 2026, $131.4B for 2027, and $148.5B for 2028, with 1.6T penetration accelerating on Nvidia's Rubin Ultra platform. Verizon's multi-billion-dollar fiber deal with Corning extends through 2032. Independent photonics voices saw broad re-rating across LITE, COHR, AAOI, GLW, and CIEN.
Kim Jang-yeol argues consensus sees HBM prices jumping over 50% by year-end, key to next year's earnings. Samsung and SK Hynix trade near 4.8x forward P/E after won-strength adjustments, still at a 30% discount to Micron, and HBM's 3x DRAM wafer consumption tightens supply. Daishin notes 2028 HBM demand projections exceed 40 billion Gb.
El-Erian argues against hiking, while Seema Shah warns a September hold risks credibility; markets put 60% odds on a hike with CPI as tiebreaker. BMO's Davis says mortgage convexity hedgers are the last major duration seller, making 10-year yields at 5.00-5.25% a larger buy. Gundlach says funds are 50bps too low and tells investors to avoid 30-year bonds.
Outlier Capital initiated long at $40.8 after Q4 AI Cloud revenue overtook mining and the company owns 5 GW of power with customer prepayments.
Thread Guy re-entered long at $125, citing renewed memory interest and the upcoming Anthropic S-1 as a catalyst.
And I don't know man I I honestly could not believe the Kraken post.
Caesar Capital increased LMND at $51.74, raising average cost to $39.48 and signaling continued conviction.
BMO's Davis would buy 10-year only if yields reach 5.00-5.25%; watching mortgage convexity sellers and dealer liquidity.
El-Erian argues against hiking while Shah warns a hold risks credibility; both need the CPI print before committing.
Grant Beaty says US tanker strikes are fundamentally bearish oil despite the market spike, but escalation and refinery outage risk keep him on watch.
Gundlach warns investors to avoid 30-year bonds globally as US yields rise; sees funds rate 50bps too low.
Veteran PMs are bearish on BAC and GS, buying downside protection on hidden data-center leverage and credit stress.
Cyberattack hit shipments and caused guidance cut; stock selling off on operational uncertainty.