Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
X was dominated by Iran tanker strikes and record diesel, the Qualcomm-Amazon custom silicon deal, and Goldman's optical TAM upgrade; high-quality voices disagreed on whether the oil move is bullish or bearish.
Themes on this desk
Oil and Iran
Tanker strikes, Goldman $120 Brent, record diesel; one trader calls it bearish.
AI optics
Goldman optical TAM to $148.5B by 2028; Verizon-Corning 80M-mile fiber deal.
Custom silicon
Qualcomm-Amazon $4B multi-generation deal and warrant; expands ASIC competition.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Goldman Sachs sharply raises optical module market forecasts
Goldman Sachs upgraded global optical module market forecasts to $67.7B for 2026 (+33% revision), $131.4B for 2027 (+81%), and $148.5B for 2028 (+115%). For NVDA Rubin Ultra, GS increased modeled optical modules per GPU: 1.6T from 0 to 2, 3.2T from 3 to 5, and raised 1.6T+ forecast for 2027 by 61% with 80% silicon photonics penetration.
- $67.7 billion (+33% revision) for 2026 - $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027 - $148.5 billion (+115% revision) for
This indicates significantly higher demand for optical components, benefiting companies in the optical supply chain such as LITE, AAOI, COHR, VIAV, CIEN, and silicon photonics players.
Watch Watch for follow-through in optical stock prices and any confirmation from NVDA or supply chain partners on Rubin Ultra specifications.
Source →Qualcomm's Amazon deal validates AI data center push, but risks remain
Qualcomm's $4B custom silicon deal with Amazon marks its second hyperscaler win, but the author notes the core smartphone business is in decline, the CPU timeline is rumored, and the stock trades at 14x NTM PE. The deal could be a catalyst if details emerge at earnings.
A SECOND HYPERSCALER FOR $QCOM. $QCOM and $AMZN announce $4B custom silicon deal.
The deal could re-rate QCOM if it signals meaningful AI revenue, but execution risks and competitive pressures remain.
Watch Watch for Qualcomm's earnings call for specifics on the Amazon deal and any hyperscaler commitments for its Oryon CPU.
Source →Uber president buys over $5M of stock
Uber president Andrew Macdonald made a $5M+ insider buy, signaling management conviction.
Nice $5M+ insider buy from $UBER president Andrew Macdonald.
Insider buying often precedes outperformance; suggests undervaluation or positive outlook.
Watch Monitor further insider transactions and UBER earnings for confirmation.
Source →Gundlach: Fed funds rate 50bps too low, avoid 30-year bonds
DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach stated that the Fed funds rate is 50 basis points too low relative to the 2-year yield, and warned investors to avoid 30-year bonds globally as US yields continue to rise.
DOUBLELINE'S GUNDLACH: US 2-YEAR YIELD & FED FUNDS RATE ARE OUT OF SYNC, WITH FED FUNDS RATE 50BPS TOO LOW;
Signals potential Fed rate hikes and continued pressure on long-duration bonds, impacting rate-sensitive assets and duration positioning.
Watch Monitor Fed communications and upcoming CPI prints for confirmation of a 50bp hike; watch 30-year yield levels for further increases.
Source →US diesel prices hit record high above $5.90/gallon amid Iran conflict
US diesel prices surged above $5.90/gallon for the first time in history, with some states above $8.00, as Iran rejected the latest US peace proposal and the US and Iran exchanged strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, during peak diesel demand season.
BREAKING: US diesel prices surge above $5.90/gallon for the first time in history, with prices in some states now above
Record diesel prices will feed into inflation expectations and could pressure consumer spending and transport costs, potentially impacting the broader economy and rate-sensitive assets.
Watch Track diesel price movements and any geopolitical developments in the Strait of Hormuz that could further disrupt supply.
Source →