Daily Alpha · Substack
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Substack's full-text items were IREN deep dives and Fidenza Macro AMA; IREN long thesis rests on AI Cloud inflection and owned power, while Fidenza turns constructive on AI and favors short USD/JPY.
Themes on this desk
IREN transition
Outlier Capital long at $40.8; AI Cloud revenue overtook mining with 5GW power and prepayments.
AI and FX
Fidenza Macro turns constructive on AI; highest conviction short USD/JPY.
IREN positioned as asymmetric AI cloud play due to market misclassification
Outlier Capital argues IREN is mispriced as a Bitcoin miner despite transitioning to a full-stack AI cloud provider. The author initiated a long position at $40.8, citing IREN's ownership of land, power, substations, and data halls as enabling customer prepayments and asset-backed financing for its $25-30B FY2027 capex, unlike peers CoreWeave and Nebius which are already priced for their identity change.
If the market re-rates IREN from a miner to an AI cloud, the equity could see significant upside; the author suggests a 5x path from current levels, implying potential for substantial returns.
Watch Watch for Horizons 2-4 acceptance by Microsoft in the December quarter and conversion of $4B contracted ARR into recognized revenue; also monitor if AI Cloud revenue continues to outpace mining revenue.
Source →USD/JPY short is highest conviction trade
Geo Chen identifies short USD/JPY as the one trade he doesn't want to miss, expecting a faster and deeper selloff than consensus anticipates due to aligned macro factors.
A significant USD/JPY decline could impact Japanese equities, carry trades, and global risk sentiment, with implications for currency-hedged investments.
Watch Watch for USD/JPY breaking key support levels; a rapid move lower would confirm the thesis.
Source →