Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 63 videos · 14 channels
Memory / HBM
1 video · 37mConsensus HBM price up >50%, Samsung/Hynix 4.8x forward with 30% Micron discount.
HBM price consensus expected to rise over 50% by year-end
Kim states that consensus expects HBM prices to rise more than 50% by the end of the year, which is key to next year's earnings, yet Korean memory stocks still trade at a 30% discount and 4.8x forward P/E.
Oil supply shock
1 video · 1mHormuz flows half pre-war, product stocks near empty; diesel crack at record $106.
Brent oil near $100 with Hormuz flows at half pre-war levels; product stockpiles near empty
Bloomberg reports Brent is marching toward $100 as Strait of Hormuz crude flows are only about half pre-war levels (~10 million barrels/day). Product flows, especially diesel, are minimal, and Vitol CEO Russell Hardie says product stockpiles are running near empty, risking broader inflation. A deal to reopen Hormuz is the key pivot but not imminent.
Fed and rates
2 videos · 8mEl-Erian against hike; BMO sees convexity sellers keeping long-end yields high.
El-Erian argues against Fed hike despite market pricing 60% odds
Mohamed El-Erian says if he were on the FOMC, he would argue for no hike, citing stable inflation expectations, AI productivity gains, and that current inflation drivers are insensitive to higher rates. He also warns of housing market risks.
Mortgage convexity hedging is last major duration seller; 10-year at 5%-5.25% is a larger buy
BMO's Earl Davis identifies mortgage convexity hedgers as the only significant seller left in Treasuries, with 30-year mortgage rates near 7.25% potentially accelerating duration selling. Dealer liquidity is insufficient for a violent selloff, so he sees 10-year yields at 5.00%-5.25% as a larger buy because rates likely won't stay there long.
US diesel prices at record high, driven by refinery attacks and export policy
Doomberg notes US diesel surged to $5.90/gallon, highest ever, due to Houthi attacks on Saudi refineries and Russian export cuts. He argues the Trump administration is allowing domestic prices to rise while refiners export diesel, a deliberate geopolitical choice.