IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions
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19:35
Jul 17
Jul 17
Long Treasuries, yields falling 3-6 months
Rate-hike fears are overblown; the 10-year yield around 4.5% has already priced in the likely one hike at most, and a weakening economy later this year should push yields lower over the next 3-6 months.
MED
15:57
Jul 17
Jul 17
No upside in long government bonds.
Jamie Dimon would not be a buyer of long-dated government bonds. Even if inflation falls to 2%, the 10-year Treasury yield should be around 4.5% and short rates around 3.25–3.5%, which are already priced in, leaving no upside. He also warns that inflation could reaccelerate, citing the post-1974 recession when inflation climbed from 3.5% to double digits despite falling deficits.
HIGH
17:31
Jul 14
Jul 14
Bond bear market, yields to 5%
We are in a global bond bear market that follows the greatest financial bubble in history. Investors are now starting to care about excessive debts and deficits, and the supply of government bonds is swamping demand. Long-term yields are rising not because of higher inflation expectations or accelerating growth, but because of these fiscal concerns and rising real rates. He expects the US 10-year yield to inevitably retest 5%, last seen in 2023.
HIGH
16:03
Jul 09
Jul 09
Avoid US Treasuries, negative real yield.
Real inflation is around 10% or higher, while the 10-year Treasury yields only about 4.4%. This results in deeply negative real yields, meaning bondholders lose purchasing power. Rising yields reflect distrust in sovereign debt, and the US is debasing the dollar to sustain bond prices. US Treasuries should be avoided as they destroy wealth.
HIGH
14:49
Jul 09
Jul 09
Steepen yield curve; short long bonds.
Fed rate hikes, persistent inflation, and massive supply from AI hyperscaler debt and sovereign issuance will push long-end Treasury yields substantially higher. Investors should steepen the curve: favor belly of the curve (intermediate maturities) and avoid long bonds.
MED
11:00
Jul 08
Jul 08
US 10Y yields to drop after auction
The US 10-year Treasury yield broke above 4.5% due to pre-auction selling pressure. Tonight's auction, if completed smoothly, should relieve that pressure and allow yields to decline, supporting bond prices in the near term.
MED
15:05
Jul 06
Jul 06
US 10-year yield heading to 5%.
Treasury yields are heading structurally higher due to competition for capital from AI-related IPOs and bond issuance, rebuilding of commodity stockpiles, and post-conflict reconstruction. The 10-year could reach 5% by 2027, making Treasuries unattractive to hold.
HIGH
14:00
Jul 03
Jul 03
US fiscal risks make Treasuries unattractive
The US fiscal situation, with national debt at 120% of GDP and interest payments now exceeding defense spending, raises the risk of reduced demand for Treasuries. This could lead to structurally higher interest rates and lower bond prices, making US government bonds unattractive.
MED
08:15
Jul 02
Jul 02
Fed on hold supports US Treasuries.
She expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold for the rest of 2026, providing a supportive backdrop for US Treasury prices.
MED
11:21
Jul 01
Jul 01
10Y yields won't drop; stay near 4.5%
The recent decline in 10-year Treasury yields is unlikely to persist. Persistent fiscal concerns, inflation uncertainty, and a higher term premium should keep yields elevated near 4.5%, even if inflation data improves moderately.
HIGH
21:01
Jun 18
Jun 18
Bond market is an inviting place.
The bond market has already repriced the Fed's hawkish tilt and a potential rate hike, with the 10-year yield now around 4.5% in the middle of a trading range (4.20-4.30% low, 4.625% high). The FOMC caught up to the bond market's earlier pricing, making bonds look inviting.
HIGH
15:40
Jun 17
Jun 17
Rates peaked, start summer bond rally.
Inflation has largely been driven by oil shocks, and with oil prices contained despite the Strait of Hormuz crisis, inflation is likely peaking. The high prints for rates are behind us, and we are entering a ‘summer of the bond market’. If oil and inflation peak, the Fed will have room to cut rates by year-end, leading to a bond rally.
HIGH
06:59
Jun 17
Jun 17
Markets underpriced for hawkish Fed surprise
The Fed cannot cut rates because the US economy is growing resiliently above trend and inflation is staying higher for longer. Markets are underpriced for this inflation overshoot and are oblivious to the risk that Chair Warsh will reduce forward guidance and the dot plot, creating a less dovish, Greenspan-style Fed. The ten-year yield below 4.50% does not reflect this hawkish risk.
MED
08:59
Jun 15
Jun 15
Fed cuts rates next year, buy bonds
The Fed will likely remain on hold this year and pivot to rate cuts next year as the US economy slows. Real personal consumption spending has been negative for three months, savings rate at a three-year low, and wage growth is cooling. With supply-side inflation (oil) fading, demand-side inflation is easing, allowing the Fed to cut rates in 2026 to support a softening economy.
MED
17:21
Jun 12
Jun 12
Long US bonds as yields drop
US 10-year yields at 4.5% represent a danger zone and a line in the sand. Trump must cut a deal to avoid economic damage. Core inflation is not present, full-time job creation is negative, and central banks will eventually cut rates. Yields will fall, making long-duration Treasuries attractive.
HIGH
17:11
Jun 02
Jun 02
10-year yield above 4.5% dangerous.
If the 10-year Treasury yield stays above 4.5% on a sustained basis, the bond vigilantes will emerge. Yields are driven by elevated inflation and the negative feedback loop of rolling over short-term debt at higher rates, squeezing the budget.
HIGH
15:10
May 31
May 31
Buy 10-year when yields high
The 10-year Treasury yield has been range-bound between roughly 3.75% and 4.75% due to government intervention and economic constraints. A tactical trade of buying bonds when yields hit the upper end (4.75-5%) and selling when yields fall to the lower end (3.75-4%) can be profitable.
HIGH
05:26
May 25
May 25
Treasury yields to rise further
The global bond selloff is structural, driven by fiscal indiscipline, massive defense and infrastructure spending, aging demographics, and geopolitical turmoil, not just the Iran war. Therefore, US Treasury yields will continue to rise, with the 10-year heading to 4.75-5% and the 30-year to 5.5-6%.
HIGH
07:44
May 19
May 19
Treasury yields likely to break higher.
US Treasury yields are at critical levels and could break higher, with potential for further curve steepening, as the Fed faces uncertainty on inflation and the market doubts the Fed's ability to react hawkishly, while the economic data and geopolitical risks support higher yields.
MED
17:21
May 12
May 12
Add duration around 4.5% 10-year yield
The 10-year Treasury yield around 4.5% is an attractive level to add duration because rates are likely to move lower over the next six months. The bond market has been range-bound, and the current yield offers an asymmetric payoff profile. Inflation is sticky but largely driven by temporary oil and gas spikes, and the equity-bond correlation is negative, making duration a diversifier rather than a pure hedge.
HIGH
06:00
May 10
May 10
Bond yields demand rate hikes, not cuts.
Bond yields across the curve are signaling that the Fed needs to hike rates, not cut. The 2-year yield is near 4% and the 10-year at 4.44%, well above the fed funds rate of 3.62%. The market is repricing rate expectations higher, and inaction would mean failing to achieve the 2% inflation target, which has not been met for over five years. This implies bond prices will fall further as yields rise.
HIGH
14:31
May 08
May 08
Treasury yields attractive, adding duration.
Treasury bonds, especially at the long end, are cheap and attractive. The 10-year near 4.5% and the long bond at 5% offer embedded value from steep curves and roll-down. Adding duration globally is warranted as yields are high.
HIGH
21:33
May 04
May 04
Extend duration at 4.5% 10-year yield
When the 10-year Treasury yield rises to 4.5% or slightly higher, that is the time to extend duration because the economy and stock market do not perform well above that level, and Fed/treasury policy will likely keep yields in a range.
MED
14:00
May 01
May 01
US 10-year Treasuries attractive at 4.4%
US 10-year Treasuries at 4.4% offer a compelling yield in a high-quality, intermediate duration fixed income portfolio. With inflation moderating, real yields are attractive and provide a strong source of income and total return.
HIGH
18:42
Apr 27
Apr 27
Long IEF (10-year Treasury) funded at GC vs paying swap fixed to capture basis spread; a suggested basis trade.
HIGH
14:10
Apr 16
Apr 16
Bearish view on 10-year US Treasuries as rising oil prices force major importing creditors like Japan and China to liquidate USTs to finance their energy deficits, driving yields higher.
HIGH
21:29
Mar 18
Mar 18
Subadra Rajappa stated bonds are "still the place where you want to put your money to work," and that because the Fed is likely to stay on hold, investors will "flock to the belly of the curve." She explicitly concluded, "the belly is going to continue to outperform." A prolonged Fed hold anchors front-end yields, while rising risks to future growth (which could force more cuts later) increase the relative attractiveness of intermediate-term Treasuries (the belly). LONG the belly of the US Treasury curve (e.g., 5-10 year maturities) as demand is expected to concentrate there, leading to price outperformance relative to both shorter and longer maturities. The Fed surprises with a hike or growth proves resilient, reducing expectations for future cuts and causing the belly to underperform.
17:44
Mar 16
Mar 16
"Around that seven to 10 year point does provide you quite a bit of protection from a growth shock." The massive spike in oil prices acts as a regressive tax on the consumer, leading to demand destruction and a subsequent economic growth shock. Central banks will not hike into a supply-driven energy shock, meaning the next major move in yields is likely lower as economic growth slows down. LONG medium-to-long duration US Treasuries as a hedge against an impending growth shock caused by triple-digit oil prices. If inflation expectations become unanchored and the Fed is forced to hike rates to maintain credibility, long-duration bonds will sell off.
15:43
Mar 16
Mar 16
We're having suddenly severe job losses start and we're having deflation across the board and job losses. They have no choice but by start cutting rates. AI will permanently eliminate entire sectors of white-collar economic activity (legal, medical consulting, basic coding), causing a severe deflationary shock. To combat this unprecedented structural unemployment, the Federal Reserve will be forced to aggressively cut short-to-medium term interest rates back toward zero. Long short and intermediate-duration US Treasuries to front-run the inevitable Fed easing cycle triggered by AI-induced job displacement. AI productivity gains create enough new economic growth to offset job losses, keeping inflation sticky and preventing the Fed from cutting rates to zero.
11:36
Mar 16
Mar 16
We still need to be underweight duration. We still need to price out some rate cuts. People still need to digest this shock from a price perspective. The market entered the year pricing in aggressive rate cuts from central banks. However, the sudden inflationary shock from $100+ oil will force the Fed and ECB to hold rates higher for longer to prevent second-wave inflation. As rate cut expectations are priced out, bond yields will rise, causing bond prices to fall. Shorting long-duration Treasuries capitalizes on the market's forced adjustment to a higher-for-longer interest rate environment driven by the energy shock. The energy shock quickly morphs into a severe deflationary recession, forcing central banks to panic-cut rates to save the economy, which would cause bond prices to rally.
About IEF Analyst Coverage
Buzzberg tracks IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF) across 13 sources. 29 bullish vs 14 bearish calls from 55 analysts. Sentiment: predominantly bullish (22%). 69 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days: 1 bullish, 1 bearish, 1 watch. Latest voices: Gareth Soloway, Jamie Dimon, Peter Boockvar.