IE IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

10-year yield above 4.5% dangerous.

Buy 10-year when yields high

Treasury yields to rise further

Treasury yields likely to break higher.

Add duration around 4.5% 10-year yield

Bond yields demand rate hikes, not cuts.

Treasury yields attractive, adding duration.

Extend duration at 4.5% 10-year yield

US 10-year Treasuries attractive at 4.4%

Long IEF (10-year Treasury) funded at GC vs paying swap fixed to capture basis spread; a suggested basis trade.

Bearish view on 10-year US Treasuries as rising oil prices force major importing creditors like Japan and China to liquidate USTs to finance their energy deficits, driving yields higher.

Subadra Rajappa stated bonds are "still the place where you want to put your money to work," and that because the Fed is likely to stay on hold, investors will "flock to the belly of the curve." She explicitly concluded, "the belly is going to continue to outperform." A prolonged Fed hold anchors front-end yields, while rising risks to future growth (which could force more cuts later) increase the relative attractiveness of intermediate-term Treasuries (the belly). LONG the belly of the US Treasury curve (e.g., 5-10 year maturities) as demand is expected to concentrate there, leading to price outperformance relative to both shorter and longer maturities. The Fed surprises with a hike or growth proves resilient, reducing expectations for future cuts and causing the belly to underperform.

"Around that seven to 10 year point does provide you quite a bit of protection from a growth shock." The massive spike in oil prices acts as a regressive tax on the consumer, leading to demand destruction and a subsequent economic growth shock. Central banks will not hike into a supply-driven energy shock, meaning the next major move in yields is likely lower as economic growth slows down. LONG medium-to-long duration US Treasuries as a hedge against an impending growth shock caused by triple-digit oil prices. If inflation expectations become unanchored and the Fed is forced to hike rates to maintain credibility, long-duration bonds will sell off.

We're having suddenly severe job losses start and we're having deflation across the board and job losses. They have no choice but by start cutting rates. AI will permanently eliminate entire sectors of white-collar economic activity (legal, medical consulting, basic coding), causing a severe deflationary shock. To combat this unprecedented structural unemployment, the Federal Reserve will be forced to aggressively cut short-to-medium term interest rates back toward zero. Long short and intermediate-duration US Treasuries to front-run the inevitable Fed easing cycle triggered by AI-induced job displacement. AI productivity gains create enough new economic growth to offset job losses, keeping inflation sticky and preventing the Fed from cutting rates to zero.

We still need to be underweight duration. We still need to price out some rate cuts. People still need to digest this shock from a price perspective. The market entered the year pricing in aggressive rate cuts from central banks. However, the sudden inflationary shock from $100+ oil will force the Fed and ECB to hold rates higher for longer to prevent second-wave inflation. As rate cut expectations are priced out, bond yields will rise, causing bond prices to fall. Shorting long-duration Treasuries capitalizes on the market's forced adjustment to a higher-for-longer interest rate environment driven by the energy shock. The energy shock quickly morphs into a severe deflationary recession, forcing central banks to panic-cut rates to save the economy, which would cause bond prices to rally.

If the bond markets face declining liquidity then they're going to act with their feet and basically yields will start to come down. So, I think you could see potentially here the risk of a bullish flattening. Consensus is positioned for a steepening yield curve, but term premiums are actually peaking. As liquidity tightens and markets move to a risk-off stance, investors will seek the safety of government bonds, driving mid-duration yields lower. LONG. Mid-duration bonds offer a safe haven and capital appreciation potential as the yield curve flattens in response to a slowing liquidity cycle. A resurgence of inflation caused by a robust real economy could force the Fed to maintain or raise rates, causing bond yields to spike and prices to fall.

"We think the bond market has this wrong. We don't think the ECB, Bank of England will be hiking. Bond markets should be thinking about more Fed easing, not less... Treasuries will work as a hedge on a significant economic slowdown." The market is currently pricing in sustained high rates due to the immediate inflationary shock of $100+ oil. However, this energy spike acts as a regressive tax that will crush consumer spending and trigger a broader economic slowdown. When growth stalls, central banks will be forced to cut rates, driving bond prices higher. Long US Treasuries as a hedge against an impending macro growth shock, fading the market's current "higher-for-longer" pricing. If inflation becomes structurally unanchored and the Fed is forced to hike rates despite a slowing economy (true stagflation), long-duration bonds will suffer severe drawdowns.

"What is going on with crude, there has been a significant increase in inflation expectations for the U.S. That tells you they are not about to cut interest rates. The Fed is going to be sidelined..." Surging oil prices act as an immediate stagflationary shock, driving up headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations. This dynamic prevents the Federal Reserve from executing planned rate cuts, causing bond yields to spike and the prices of long-duration bonds to fall. SHORT long-duration US Treasuries. The oil shock causes a severe, immediate global recession, prompting a massive flight-to-safety bid into US Treasuries that overrides inflation concerns.

"The Fed also knows that easing... with gasoline prices going up isn't going to bring them down... leads you to inflation. So they're not going to react to this [weak jobs report]." Normally, a report showing 92,000 jobs lost would trigger a "flight to safety" into bonds (yields down, TLT up) anticipating Fed cuts. However, the Fed is explicitly paralyzed by the oil shock and fear of 1970s-style reinflation. This breaks the "bad news is good news" correlation. If the Fed cannot cut despite job losses, long-duration bonds may not rally as hard as expected, or could sell off if inflation expectations unanchor. WATCH. The trade is ambiguous; the recession signal says buy bonds, but the inflation signal says sell. Avoid aggressive positioning until the PCE data confirms the inflation trend. The Fed ignores inflation to save the labor market (bullish for bonds).

"I think the Fed's got to cut rates ultimately... when they pause long enough, they're going to meet and they're going to cut interest rates." The catalyst for rate cuts will be financial contagion (bank losses on private credit) or geopolitical stress. Rate cuts will drive Treasury yields down and bond prices up. Long duration (Treasuries) to capture capital appreciation from the inevitable Fed pivot. Inflation re-accelerating could force the Fed to keep rates "higher for longer."

The 10-year yield hit one-month highs (gaining 20bps in a week). Schumacher states this environment is a "tough deal for bonds to digest" and "probably pretty negative actually." Rising oil prices drive inflation expectations (breakevens) higher. As inflation expectations rise, bond yields must rise (and prices fall) to compensate investors for the eroded purchasing power. SHORT long-duration treasuries (TLT) or intermediate treasuries (IEF) as yields continue to price in the "inflation fear." A flight-to-quality event (panic in equities) could bid up bonds despite inflation, or the Fed could signal unexpected dovishness.

The 10-year Treasury yield pushed toward 4.25% - 4.50% early in the session. Subsequently, payrolls printed a shocking -92k jobs. Misra argues that 4.25% is a "buy zone" because the oil shock acts as a tax on the consumer, eventually destroying demand. Collins agrees, viewing 4.50% as an overshoot and fair value closer to 3.50%-4.00% as the Fed is forced to cut to save the labor market. Long Duration. The weak payrolls print confirms the "bad news is good news" for bonds thesis, overriding short-term inflation fears from oil. Stagflation where the Fed is forced to hike/hold despite weak growth due to unanchored inflation expectations.

Waller states, "I've been more worried about the labor market versus the inflation risk... I've always believed inflation was going to come back down once tariff affects pass through." He also notes regarding oil: "For us, thinking about policy... this is unlikely to cause a sustained inflation." The bond market often sells off (yields up) on headline inflation fears (oil spikes, tariff talk). Waller is signaling that the Fed will *look through* these supply-side shocks. His reaction function is asymmetric: he will ignore high headline inflation caused by oil/tariffs but will cut rates aggressively if the "fragile" labor market cracks. LONG. You are buying the Fed's willingness to cut rates despite temporary inflationary noise. If oil prices do not "unravel" and instead trigger a wage-price spiral, the Fed will be forced to pivot back to hawkishness.

Gromen states, "Ultimately, every time the dollar gets too strong, the treasury market is going to dysfunction. It is a mathematical certainty." He explicitly advises to be "short bonds" and "short duration." As oil prices rise (due to Iran/Hormuz conflict), foreign nations (importers) must sell their US Treasury reserves to raise cash to buy expensive oil. This creates a massive "natural seller" of Treasuries, driving prices down and yields up. SHORT long-duration US Treasuries as foreign central banks liquidate holdings to fund energy needs. The Federal Reserve implementing Yield Curve Control (YCC) to cap rates, which would force bond prices up artificially.

"If four is the neutral funds rate, then about four and a half is the neutral two-year note and around low fives is the neutral five. We're about a 100 basis points below those." Bond yields and prices move inversely. Bianco argues the market is mispricing yields by ~100 basis points too low. As the market accepts the "3% inflation world," yields must rise to 5-6%, causing bond prices (TLT/IEF) to fall. SHORT long-duration Treasuries to capture the move to higher yields. A sudden economic collapse or recession could force yields down (flight to safety).

Miran states, "My forecast for inflation calls for continuing interest rate cuts... I prefer to still move at 25 clips." He explicitly rejects the idea of pausing due to the recent oil shock, noting, "It's difficult to get excited about a policy implication [from oil]... pass through into core inflation... is quite limited." The market fears the Fed might pause cuts due to Middle East energy inflation. Miran argues the Fed will look through this "headline shock" because the macro backdrop (restrictive policy) is different from 2022. If the Fed continues cutting 25bps despite oil rising, yields at the long end (which price in growth/inflation) might wobble, but the policy-sensitive rates will drop, supporting bond prices. Long Duration Treasuries as the Fed commits to the cutting cycle regardless of supply-side noise. A sustained, massive spike in oil that unanchors long-term inflation expectations (which Miran admits would change his mind).

"My forecast for inflation calls for continuing interest rate cuts... I prefer to still move it 25 clips." The speaker explicitly dismisses the "Iran War" supply shock as a reason to pause cuts. He believes the Fed should look through supply-side volatility. If the Fed continues to cut rates by 25bps despite geopolitical noise, yields on Treasuries will fall, driving bond prices higher. LONG duration to capture the price appreciation from the continued cutting cycle. A massive spike in oil prices that forces inflation expectations to unanchor, causing the Fed to pivot to a hold or hike.

Dimon calls inflation the "skunk at the party" and doubts rate cuts. Tengler advises to "stay relatively short" and "don't take a bet yet on the long end" of the curve. War is inflationary (supply shocks). If inflation spikes, the Federal Reserve cannot cut rates. Long-duration bonds (TLT) are highly sensitive to sticky inflation and will sell off (yields rise) if the "disinflation" narrative breaks. AVOID long-duration treasuries; prefer short-term bills (cash equivalents). A recession triggered by high oil prices could eventually force a flight to safety in bonds.

"I don't think you're going to get much in the way of capital gains... Treasuries, in other words, are where they should be." He suggests the Fed may not cut rates because the economy is strong. If yields remain range-bound (4.0% - 4.5%) and rate cuts are off the table, long-duration bonds offer no price appreciation potential. Investors are strictly "earning the coupon." NEUTRAL on price action. (Hold for income, but do not buy for a trade). The economy crashes unexpectedly, forcing the Fed to cut rates aggressively (bullish for bonds).

"The outlier... is treasuries... actually down a little bit... inflationary impact of higher oil prices... maybe the cost if the US gets dragged into an extended conflict." Normally, bonds rally (yields drop) during war. However, the speaker argues that inflation fears (from oil) and fiscal concerns (war spending) are overpowering the safety bid. Additionally, investors are selling liquid bonds to raise cash for margin calls. SHORT US Treasuries (expecting lower prices/higher yields) despite the risk-off environment. A severe equity crash that forces a traditional "flight to quality" regardless of inflation concerns.