Michael McKee

"They've [oil prices] jumped up over the last week... the longer it [the war] does, the worse the impacts are going to be." The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is introducing a risk premium to crude oil. While the US is not a net importer, global pricing mechanics mean WTI and Brent rise. This directly benefits the Energy sector (XLE) and the commodity itself (USO), acting as a hedge against the broader market volatility caused by the war. LONG energy as a geopolitical hedge and inflation beneficiary. Rapid de-escalation of the conflict or demand destruction from a recession.

"They've [oil prices] jumped up over the last week... the longer it [the war] does, the worse the impacts are going to be." The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is introducing a risk premium to crude oil. While the US is not a net importer, global pricing mechanics mean WTI and Brent rise. This directly benefits the Energy sector (XLE) and the commodity itself (USO), acting as a hedge against the broader market volatility caused by the war. LONG energy as a geopolitical hedge and inflation beneficiary. Rapid de-escalation of the conflict or demand destruction from a recession.

Inflation is re-accelerating in the services sector, and the speaker explicitly states this data denies the Fed the reassurance needed to lower inflation targets. If the Fed cannot cut rates while other central banks (ECB, BOJ) potentially soften, the interest rate differential favors the US Dollar. Sticky inflation equals a hawkish Fed, which equals a stronger USD. Long USD exposure via UUP or direct forex positions captures the yield advantage. If inflation is driven purely by supply shocks rather than demand, it may eventually crush the consumer, leading to a recession that forces the dollar down.

"Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two sided description... reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments could be appropriate." The market had priced in cuts. The explicit mention of potential *hikes* ("upward adjustments") re-prices the yield curve higher. Higher rates for longer strengthen the USD against other currencies. LONG USD and Yields (Short Bonds) as the Fed signals the inflation fight is stalled. Rapid deterioration in the labor market could force the Fed to cut despite inflation.

Treasury intervention to cap long-end yields faces limits: doubling bond buybacks to around $8 billion won't move the market, and if Treasury issues short-term bills to finance yield suppression, front-end yields will rise and the Fed will have to absorb higher-yielding supply, making the Fed's job harder.

The Japanese yen has been driving global trading as Japan moves rates higher and is expected to hike again, pulling money back to Japan and reducing buying of US Treasuries, German bunds, and French OATs. That flow dynamic supports yen strength and adds pressure on the Fed to keep rate spreads from collapsing.

There is an upward bias in yields because of competing demand for capital, a fiscal deficit with no signs of becoming under control, and energy supply shock and inflation pressures; the market is more focused on AI funding than on the rest of the debt backdrop.

The US-Japan joint intervention arrested the yen's slide temporarily, but interest rate differentials and lack of fundamental Japanese action mean the yen is likely to weaken again. The bet is that depreciation will resume within days to a week as traders dip back into selling yen.

"If the court decides that the president has unlimited power to fire people for really no cause, then the president could totally remake the Fed in his own image with people who would cut rates." If the Supreme Court strips the Federal Reserve of its independence, the market will immediately price in a politically captured central bank. A Fed mandated by the executive branch to aggressively cut interest rates—regardless of underlying economic data—will drive real yields negative and unmoor inflation expectations. Gold is the ultimate beneficiary of fiat debasement fears and negative real rates. LONG GLD as a macro hedge against the Supreme Court ruling in favor of executive power over central bank independence. The Supreme Court rules to protect Fed independence, maintaining the hawkish status quo and keeping real rates elevated, which acts as a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.

"It takes time to get production back online... You have to have the refineries available to process it and they will be overwhelmed. It could take a couple months before prices start to come down significantly." The geopolitical closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a severe supply bottleneck that cannot be quickly resolved by policy or immediate production hikes. This structural supply deficit will keep crude prices elevated well above $100, driving massive free cash flow for domestic oil producers and energy sector equities. LONG. Sustained high oil prices directly translate to earnings beats and margin expansion for unhedged exploration and production companies. A sudden geopolitical ceasefire or an accelerated demand destruction scenario (recession) that causes oil prices to crash.

The rest of the world in a kind of a different position because they don't have all the oil that we have. So the impact on them is going to be much worse with inflation. Global energy shocks are disproportionately hurting foreign economies (Europe, Japan, Australia) because they rely heavily on imported energy. The US, possessing massive domestic oil reserves and production capabilities, is insulated. US energy producers will benefit from elevated global oil prices while facing less domestic economic devastation than their international peers. LONG US domestic energy producers who benefit from high global energy prices and geopolitical supply constraints. A severe global recession could destroy aggregate demand for oil, causing commodity prices to crash despite supply constraints.

We also had a durable goods orders for January report that showed defense military aircraft orders were down 23.7%... all of this is before the war. So we don't have any impact of that in this data. The massive 23.7% drop in defense orders is a backward-looking anomaly from January, before the outbreak of the current war. Given the new geopolitical reality and ongoing conflicts, defense spending will inevitably surge. The market may misprice these defense contractors based on stale January data, creating an entry point before the wartime order flow is reflected in upcoming earnings. LONG major US defense contractors to capitalize on the inevitable rebound in military procurement driven by global conflicts. Supply chain bottlenecks could prevent defense contractors from fulfilling new orders quickly, or geopolitical tensions could unexpectedly de-escalate.

We also had a durable goods orders for January report that showed defense military aircraft orders were down 23.7%... all of this is before the war. So we don't have any impact of that in this data. The massive 23.7% drop in defense orders is a backward-looking anomaly from January, before the outbreak of the current war. Given the new geopolitical reality and ongoing conflicts, defense spending will inevitably surge. The market may misprice these defense contractors based on stale January data, creating an entry point before the wartime order flow is reflected in upcoming earnings. LONG major US defense contractors to capitalize on the inevitable rebound in military procurement driven by global conflicts. Supply chain bottlenecks could prevent defense contractors from fulfilling new orders quickly, or geopolitical tensions could unexpectedly de-escalate.

We also had a durable goods orders for January report that showed defense military aircraft orders were down 23.7%... all of this is before the war. So we don't have any impact of that in this data. The massive 23.7% drop in defense orders is a backward-looking anomaly from January, before the outbreak of the current war. Given the new geopolitical reality and ongoing conflicts, defense spending will inevitably surge. The market may misprice these defense contractors based on stale January data, creating an entry point before the wartime order flow is reflected in upcoming earnings. LONG major US defense contractors to capitalize on the inevitable rebound in military procurement driven by global conflicts. Supply chain bottlenecks could prevent defense contractors from fulfilling new orders quickly, or geopolitical tensions could unexpectedly de-escalate.

The rest of the world in a kind of a different position because they don't have all the oil that we have. So the impact on them is going to be much worse with inflation. Global energy shocks are disproportionately hurting foreign economies (Europe, Japan, Australia) because they rely heavily on imported energy. The US, possessing massive domestic oil reserves and production capabilities, is insulated. US energy producers will benefit from elevated global oil prices while facing less domestic economic devastation than their international peers. LONG US domestic energy producers who benefit from high global energy prices and geopolitical supply constraints. A severe global recession could destroy aggregate demand for oil, causing commodity prices to crash despite supply constraints.