Buzzberg Daily

AI-generated daily · Claude Opus + web research · Updated Apr 16, 2026

Total

+2.97%

Positions

Win Rate 54%

13 of 24 days

Sharpe 1.83

annualized

Max Drawdown -6.0%

Avg Daily +0.12%

24 trading days

vs S&P 500 -2.1%

alpha

Direction

7L 2S

90 / 10

Equity Curve vs S&P 500

Buzzberg AI +3.0%

S&P 500 +5.1%

Allocation

Tech 43% Macro 33% Other 12% Crypto 7% Energy 5%

NVDA 20% LONG

GLD 18% LONG

META 15% LONG

TSM 12% LONG

SLV 10% LONG

AVGO 8% LONG

BTC 7% LONG

USO 5% SHORT

TLT 5% SHORT

Market Summary

S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 7,022.95, confirming the risk-on regime as strong bank earnings, an accelerating AI capex cycle, and dollar weakness (DXY ~98) power equities higher. The Iran-US ceasefire creates a binary tail risk but the direction of travel is toward negotiation, keeping WTI contained near $91-93 while gold breaks toward $4,800+ on central bank buying and de-dollarization. TSMC reports Q1 earnings tomorrow before the bell — already previewed blowout $35.76B revenue (+35% YoY) — which should catalyze the next leg of the AI/semiconductor trade.

Current Positions

NVDA long 3d streak

20%

NVDA is on an 11-day winning streak (+20%) as the AI capex supercycle accelerates, confirmed by Meta's 1GW+ custom chip deal with Broadcom and TSMC's record revenue preview. TSMC earnings before the bell tomorrow should catalyze another leg higher for the entire AI chain, and NVDA is the highest-beta liquid expression of that theme. Risk is stretched technicals after the streak — a TSM guidance miss would trigger profit-taking across semis.

Entry: $198.09 Now: $198.03 -0.03% Tech

GLD long 18d streak

18%

Gold spot is near $4,800/oz at record levels, powered by a weakening dollar (DXY ~98 at 6-week lows), persistent central bank accumulation, and unresolved Iran-US geopolitical risk that keeps safe-haven demand elevated. This is the best portfolio hedge that also has offensive upside — if ceasefire collapses, gold spikes to $5,000+; if peace progresses, dollar weakens further and gold holds. Risk is a sudden risk-off liquidation event forcing gold selling for margin calls.

Entry: $439.74 Now: $439.69 -0.01% Macro

META long 2d streak

15%

Meta just announced a sweeping multi-year custom AI chip deal with Broadcom through 2029 starting at 1GW+ of compute capacity, signaling massive sustained AI infrastructure investment alongside existing commitments with NVDA and AMD. The stock has strong bullish sentiment (68% bullish) and the combination of AI capex leadership plus a durable advertising business at a reasonable multiple makes this the best mega-cap AI expression after NVDA. Risk is regulatory overhang or a broader market reversal at the 7,000 SPX level.

Entry: $672.40 Now: $674.30 +0.28% Tech

TSM long

12%

TSMC reports Q1 2026 earnings before market open tomorrow with revenue already previewed at $35.76B (+35% YoY), above street estimates, and EPS expected +50% YoY driven by insatiable AI chip demand. The active LSI packaging technology creates a structural moat locking in AI accelerator customers, and management's guidance for 80 low-NA EUV machines in 2027 signals sustained demand visibility. Risk is that the strong results are priced in or that new China export restriction headlines steal focus.

Entry: $376.30 Now: $361.81 -3.85% Other

SLV long 2d streak

10%

Silver surged 5% to $79.67/oz with the gold/silver ratio compressing to 60.6 as silver outpaces gold for the first time in months. Silver benefits from both the precious metals bull case (weak dollar, geopolitical risk) and industrial demand from solar and AI data center buildouts. The catch-up trade to gold's record run has significant room — the ratio historically overshoots to the downside in precious metals bull markets. Risk is a sharp reversal in gold or industrial demand softening.

Entry: $71.44 Now: $71.06 -0.53% Macro

AVGO long

Broadcom is the direct winner of Meta's announced multi-year custom AI chip deal through 2029 covering multiple generations of MTIA processors, validating its custom silicon strategy as the foundation of the next AI hardware wave. The stock rose 11% over 7 days and has strong momentum as the custom ASIC market expands beyond NVDA's GPU dominance. Risk is Hock Tan's decision to leave Meta's board creating governance uncertainty and potential conflicts.

Entry: $394.01 Now: $397.29 +0.83% Tech

BTC long 3d streak

Bitcoin consolidates near $74,200 in a weakening dollar environment (DXY ~98) with broad risk-on sentiment as SPX hits record highs. Multiple high-credibility sources are bullish (RaoulGMI, Taiki Maeda), and BTC serves as both a risk-on asset and a digital gold hedge against dollar debasement. A break above $75K resistance could trigger a momentum squeeze. Risk is failure at $75K resistance leading to a pullback to the $70K support zone.

Entry: $74723.70 Now: $74883.50 +0.21% Crypto

USO short

WTI crude fell to ~$91 from $100+ as Iran-US ceasefire talks progress and the direction of travel is toward negotiation. Treasury Secretary Bessent (cred=9) explicitly called for gas prices to fall to $3 by summer, and multiple credible sources (dampedspring, TheStalwart) are bearish. If a second round of peace talks succeeds, oil could rapidly decline to the $80s. This also serves as a portfolio hedge — if ceasefire collapses, oil spikes but gold (our 18% GLD position) offsets. Risk is ceasefire failure sending WTI back above $100.

Entry: $123.10 Now: $127.15 -3.29% Energy

TLT short 2d streak

The 10Y yield at ~4.25% with oil still elevated near $91/bbl and strong economic data (record bank earnings, SPX at new highs) argues against a rate rally. Luke Gromen (cred=8) and SantiagoAuFund are bearish bonds, and the fiscal deficit trajectory supports higher term premium. The Fed's next meeting April 28-29 is unlikely to cut given elevated oil-driven inflation. Risk is a sudden risk-off event from Iran escalation driving a flight-to-safety bid in Treasuries.

Entry: $86.78 Now: $86.31 +0.54% Macro

History

Date	Daily	Cumul.	L/S	Top Positions	Best	Worst
Apr 15	+0.36%	+2.97%	7L / 1S	NVDA GLD META TLT	META +1.6%	GLD -1.1%
NVDA long 22% +0.81% GLD long 20% -1.12% META long 15% +1.63% TLT short 12% +0.56% SMH long 10% -0.06% BTC long 8% +0.79% GOOGL long 7% +1.15% SLV long 6% -0.67%
Apr 14	+0.29%	+2.60%	9L / 1S	USO JPM AVGO NVDA	NVDA +4.0%	USO -3.5%
USO long 20% -3.54% JPM long 15% -0.75% AVGO long 15% +0.24% NVDA long 10% +3.97% MRVL long 8% +1.11% MSFT long 8% +2.09% GLD long 8% +2.20% NEM long 6% +2.03% BTC long 5% +1.35% LULU short 5% +1.18%
Apr 13	-0.06%	+2.31%	8L / 1S	USO XOM GLD GS	USO +2.9%	VIXY -3.4%
USO long 22% +2.91% XOM long 18% +0.05% GLD long 15% -0.31% GS long 12% -2.54% VIXY long 10% -3.38% NOC long 8% +0.28% SPY short 7% -0.86% SLV long 5% -0.57% CVX long 3% +1.67%
Apr 10	+0.27%	+2.37%	8L / 2S	GLD GOOGL LLY AMZN	AMZN +2.0%	LLY -1.8%
GLD long 20% -0.34% GOOGL long 18% -0.29% LLY long 15% -1.84% AMZN long 10% +2.02% SMH long 9% +1.83% PLTR short 7% +1.46% INTC long 7% +0.99% TLT short 5% +0.41% SLV long 5% +1.04% BTC long 4% +1.42%
Apr 09	+1.40%	+2.10%	8L / 2S	META GOOGL SMH MSFT	INTC +5.3%	TSLA -0.9%
META long 18% +2.89% GOOGL long 15% +0.38% SMH long 12% +1.83% MSFT long 10% -0.03% GLD long 10% +0.95% BTC long 8% +1.29% INTC long 8% +5.29% JPM long 7% +0.71% TSLA short 7% -0.90% TLT short 5% +0.00%
Apr 08	-1.61%	+0.69%	7L / 2S	XLE USO RTX GLD	GOOGL +3.6%	USO -9.0%
XLE long 22% -3.02% USO long 18% -9.03% RTX long 14% +3.16% GLD long 12% +0.18% UNH long 10% -0.54% GOOGL long 8% +3.62% SPY short 7% -2.27% TSLA short 5% +1.36% BTC long 4% +1.82%
Apr 07	+0.20%	+2.30%	9L / 1S	LMT GLD USO BTC	INTC +4.3%	LMT -1.4%
LMT long 18% -1.44% GLD long 16% +1.29% USO long 14% -1.34% BTC long 11% -0.42% TSLA short 9% +1.42% RTX long 8% -0.08% JPM long 8% +0.83% INTC long 6% +4.25% AMZN long 5% +0.77% NFLX long 5% +0.14%
Apr 06	+0.12%	+2.10%	9L / 1S	GLD USO LLY NVDA	BTC +3.1%	LLY -1.0%
GLD long 20% -0.54% USO long 15% +0.86% LLY long 14% -0.99% NVDA long 12% +0.06% STNG long 10% -0.63% ITA long 8% +1.49% XBI long 7% -0.20% TLT short 6% +0.16% LNG long 4% +1.37% BTC long 4% +3.10%
Apr 03	-0.06%	+1.98%	8L / 2S	GLD USO NVDA XOM	NVDA +0.2%	SLV -0.5%
GLD long 20% -0.05% USO long 17% -0.35% NVDA long 14% +0.19% XOM long 10% +0.12% LLY long 10% +0.00% LMT long 7% -0.21% TSLA short 7% +0.13% CRWD long 6% +0.10% NKE short 5% -0.23% SLV long 4% -0.48%
Apr 02	+2.16%	+2.04%	8L / 1S	GLD USO VLO LLY	USO +10.6%	SLV -1.9%
GLD long 20% -0.97% USO long 18% +10.62% VLO long 15% +0.38% LLY long 12% +1.27% SLV long 10% -1.93% LMT long 8% +2.28% NVDA long 7% +0.97% ALK short 5% +0.41% NEM long 5% +3.05%
Apr 01	+2.06%	-0.12%	8L / 1S	GLD XOM LLY RTX	SLV +7.3%	TSLA -5.2%
GLD long 22% +3.64% XOM long 18% -1.60% LLY long 14% +3.64% RTX long 10% +3.35% NVDA long 10% +5.92% TSLA short 8% -5.19% SLV long 7% +7.33% JNJ long 5% +0.59% VZ long 6% -0.34%
Mar 31	+0.42%	-2.17%	7L / 3S	USO GLD MU XLE	MU +2.7%	XLE -1.4%
USO long 20% +0.88% GLD long 15% -0.67% MU short 15% +2.70% XLE long 10% -1.45% SPY short 10% +0.71% UUP long 10% +0.00% SBUX short 7% +1.08% XLU long 5% -0.52% BTC long 5% -0.83% LLY long 3% +0.09%
Mar 27	+2.36%	-2.59%	6L / 3S	GLD USO GOOGL BTC	USO +10.3%	LMT -3.7%
GLD long 20% +3.21% USO long 15% +10.28% GOOGL short 15% +2.44% BTC long 12% -2.22% AMD long 10% -3.69% META short 10% +2.09% XOM long 8% +5.68% LMT long 5% -3.72% TLT short 5% -0.64%
Mar 26	-0.40%	-4.95%	7L / 3S	ARM GOOGL GLD TLT	GOOGL +3.2%	PLTR -4.6%
ARM long 20% -0.97% GOOGL short 15% +3.22% GLD long 15% -2.27% TLT short 10% +0.46% XOM long 10% +1.32% NVDA long 10% -3.34% SPY short 5% +1.35% BTC long 5% -2.92% PLTR long 5% -4.58% USO long 5% +2.37%
Mar 25	-0.44%	-4.56%	8L / 2S	XOM PLTR CVX GLD	BTC +1.4%	MU -4.6%
XOM long 20% -0.31% PLTR long 16% -0.23% CVX long 12% +0.01% GLD long 10% +0.54% AVGO long 9% -0.50% BKR long 7% -2.70% MU long 7% -4.59% BTC long 5% +1.43% COIN short 9% +0.85% SPY short 5% +0.15%
Mar 24	-0.67%	-4.11%	7L / 3S	GOOGL NVDA AMD PLTR	AMD +1.7%	PLTR -3.3%
GOOGL long 20% -3.15% NVDA long 17% +0.87% AMD long 12% +1.69% PLTR long 10% -3.33% JPM long 10% +1.30% USO short 10% +0.61% MSFT long 8% -2.32% PFE short 5% -0.75% GLD short 3% -1.37% VIXY long 5% +0.27%
Mar 23	-2.07%	-3.44%	8L / 2S	USO MU MRVL XLE	PLTR +6.7%	USO -8.8%
USO long 18% -8.75% MU long 17% -4.41% MRVL long 13% +1.70% XLE long 12% +0.42% GLD long 10% -1.98% NVDA long 8% +1.71% TLT short 7% -0.61% PLTR long 6% +6.73% UNG long 5% -5.41% SPY short 4% -1.13%
Mar 20	-1.12%	-1.37%	8L / 2S	UBER AVGO XLE LNG	TLT +1.8%	AVGO -2.7%
UBER long 20% -2.01% AVGO long 17% -2.67% XLE long 14% +0.00% LNG long 10% -0.32% AMD long 10% -1.25% AMZN long 9% -1.41% GOOGL long 7% -1.84% TLT short 6% +1.77% SPY short 5% +1.47% QCOM long 2% -1.55%
Mar 19	-0.91%	-0.25%	7L / 2S	MU XLE BTC NVDA	XLE +1.6%	BNO -2.9%
MU long 22% -2.59% XLE long 17% +1.64% BTC long 15% -1.12% NVDA long 12% -0.74% TLT short 10% -0.68% BNO long 8% -2.88% COIN long 6% -0.24% MSTR long 5% -0.93% SPY short 5% -0.04%
Mar 18	-0.38%	+0.66%	8L / 2S	USO NVDA XLE GLD	USO +2.4%	BTC -4.6%
USO long 20% +2.42% NVDA long 18% -1.12% XLE long 12% -0.46% GLD long 10% -1.17% ITA long 9% -0.81% BTC long 8% -4.58% MS long 7% -0.84% QCOM long 6% -0.54% TLT short 5% +0.47% LULU short 5% +0.29%
Mar 17	+0.79%	+1.04%	8L / 1S	NVDA XLE JPM BTC	MU +4.4%	ADBE -0.9%
NVDA long 22% -0.33% XLE long 16% +0.79% JPM long 13% +0.38% BTC long 12% +0.25% GLD long 10% -0.10% MU long 9% +4.36% GOOGL long 8% +2.04% COIN long 5% +3.14% ADBE short 5% -0.85%
Mar 16	+0.15%	+0.24%	9L / 1S	XLE NVDA RTX USO	BTC +3.9%	DAL -3.2%
XLE long 20% +0.59% NVDA long 15% +1.20% RTX long 12% +0.97% USO long 10% -3.15% LMT long 8% -0.22% DAL short 8% -3.18% CB long 7% +0.35% GLD long 7% -0.17% BTC long 7% +3.89% TLT long 6% +0.70%
Mar 13	-0.40%	+0.09%	7L / 3S	XLE USO GLD CF	JETS +2.6%	CF -5.1%
XLE long 20% +0.00% USO long 15% +1.68% GLD long 15% -1.13% CF long 12% -5.12% CVX long 10% -0.27% JETS short 8% +2.63% NVDA long 8% -1.71% ADBE short 5% +0.29% TLT short 4% +0.55% BTC long 3% +1.73%
Mar 12	+0.49%	+0.49%	8L / 1S	USO GLD NVDA RTX	USO +8.7%	MU -3.1%
USO long 20% +8.68% GLD long 18% -1.90% NVDA long 15% -1.08% RTX long 12% -1.79% ORCL long 10% -2.45% MU long 8% -3.07% SPY short 7% +1.06% SLV long 5% -1.95% MSFT long 5% -0.34%