Steve Hanke

Buy gold as retail demand is cited as surging; directional call is explicit but reasoning is asserted without data or quantification, making conviction low.

Hanke notes an "armada going in to start a war with Iran" and predicts "the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be closed." The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. A closure would cause an immediate, violent supply shock, sending crude prices (WTI) significantly higher from the current $65 level. LONG Oil (USO) and Energy Producers (XLE) as a geopolitical hedge. Diplomatic resolution or de-escalation would cause the war premium to evaporate quickly.

Buy silver as China's new export controls constrain global supply, creating a fundamental supply/demand imbalance that supports a continued price rally.

Short long-duration Treasuries as the 30-year yield breaks above 5% resistance; Hanke argues wartime fiscal pressures historically cause bond underperformance, with bond vigilantes now forcing yields higher against a backdrop of U.S.-Iran conflict.

Buy copper via miners as AI infrastructure, EV adoption, defense spending, and renewables buildout collectively drive demand above available supply, creating a structural price tailwind.

The US and its allies are rearming, which requires vast amounts of raw materials, and geopolitical risks (Iran war, Strait of Hormuz) are disrupting supply. This is driving a commodity super cycle where prices of hard assets will trend up with spikes. Specific commodities like ferro vanadium, molybdenum, lithium, tantalum, aluminum, tin, steel are already surging.

Hanke notes an "armada going in to start a war with Iran" and predicts "the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be closed." The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. A closure would cause an immediate, violent supply shock, sending crude prices (WTI) significantly higher from the current $65 level. LONG Oil (USO) and Energy Producers (XLE) as a geopolitical hedge. Diplomatic resolution or de-escalation would cause the war premium to evaporate quickly.

Japan's monetary policy is misunderstood. Money supply growth is anemic, so inflation will fall, not rise. Japanese bond yields will come down, and the yen carry trade will stay attractive, causing the yen to continue depreciating against the dollar.

If the 10-year Treasury yield stays above 4.5% on a sustained basis, the bond vigilantes will emerge. Yields are driven by elevated inflation and the negative feedback loop of rolling over short-term debt at higher rates, squeezing the budget.

Short BTC as it fails to participate in a ~30% Nasdaq rally from March lows, signaling structural weakness; speaker argues asset has zero fundamental value and is purely speculative with no demand floor.

The US and its allies are rearming, which requires vast amounts of raw materials, and geopolitical risks (Iran war, Strait of Hormuz) are disrupting supply. This is driving a commodity super cycle where prices of hard assets will trend up with spikes. Specific commodities like ferro vanadium, molybdenum, lithium, tantalum, aluminum, tin, steel are already surging.

"The de-dollarization narrative is basically BS... If you look at last year, the net investment inflow into the United States increased by a little over 31%... the dollar is very strong." Despite geopolitical turmoil and narratives of BRICS nations moving away from the dollar, global capital is actually fleeing to the safety and yield of US assets. This sustained capital inflow structurally supports the value of the USD against foreign fiat currencies. Going long the US Dollar captures the reality of global capital flows, fading the inaccurate "de-dollarization" media narrative. Accelerated money supply growth (M2) and aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could eventually debase the currency and weaken the dollar relative to its peers.

Hanke states that the "most important price in the world" is the EUR/USD exchange rate, and his model places fair value between 1.20 and 1.40 (currently trading lower). While the Dollar is "King," it is currently expensive. Hanke expects the exchange rate to slide back into his fair value zone, implying Euro appreciation against the Dollar. Long the Euro (via FXE) or Short the US Dollar (DXY) to capture the mean reversion to fair value. Geopolitical instability in Europe or the ECB cutting rates faster than the Fed, which would weaken the Euro.

Hanke highlights that the Federal Reserve (specifically Vice Chair Bowman) is moving to loosen bank regulations, including supplemental liquidity ratios and mortgage origination rules, to "re-empower commercial banks." Hanke argues that bank regulation *is* monetary policy. By loosening these rules, banks can expand their balance sheets and reclaim mortgage market share from non-banks. This regulatory shift directly increases the profitability and lending capacity of the traditional banking sector. Long Commercial and Regional Banks as they benefit from a structural shift in regulatory favor and increased lending volume. A sudden recession or credit event that causes loan defaults to spike before the volume benefits materialize.

Hanke highlights that the Federal Reserve (specifically Vice Chair Bowman) is moving to loosen bank regulations, including supplemental liquidity ratios and mortgage origination rules, to "re-empower commercial banks." Hanke argues that bank regulation *is* monetary policy. By loosening these rules, banks can expand their balance sheets and reclaim mortgage market share from non-banks. This regulatory shift directly increases the profitability and lending capacity of the traditional banking sector. Long Commercial and Regional Banks as they benefit from a structural shift in regulatory favor and increased lending volume. A sudden recession or credit event that causes loan defaults to spike before the volume benefits materialize.