Steven Miran

"My forecast for inflation calls for continuing interest rate cuts... I prefer to still move it 25 clips." The speaker explicitly dismisses the "Iran War" supply shock as a reason to pause cuts. He believes the Fed should look through supply-side volatility. If the Fed continues to cut rates by 25bps despite geopolitical noise, yields on Treasuries will fall, driving bond prices higher. LONG duration to capture the price appreciation from the continued cutting cycle. A massive spike in oil prices that forces inflation expectations to unanchor, causing the Fed to pivot to a hold or hike.

"My forecast for inflation calls for continuing interest rate cuts... I prefer to still move it 25 clips." The speaker explicitly dismisses the "Iran War" supply shock as a reason to pause cuts. He believes the Fed should look through supply-side volatility. If the Fed continues to cut rates by 25bps despite geopolitical noise, yields on Treasuries will fall, driving bond prices higher. LONG duration to capture the price appreciation from the continued cutting cycle. A massive spike in oil prices that forces inflation expectations to unanchor, causing the Fed to pivot to a hold or hike.

Mirren argues tariffs are paid by "exporting nations by way of lower profit margins." If the US maintains higher interest rates to fight tariff-inflation (as noted in the transcript), and exporting nations are forced to cut margins or devalue their currencies to remain competitive against US protectionism, the relative demand for the US Dollar increases. Higher yields + lower imports = stronger currency. LONG the US Dollar against major trading partners. Retaliatory tariffs from other nations could hurt US exports, potentially weakening the dollar in the long run.

Addressing a tech company cutting half its staff, Miran says, "This is how productivity gains and technology work... they allow you to produce more with fewer cuts." He dismisses this as a labor crisis and frames it as "technological progress." This validates the "AI Efficiency" bull case. If companies can maintain or grow revenue while slashing headcount by 50% via AI, operating margins will expand significantly. The primary beneficiaries are the hyperscalers providing the infrastructure (Microsoft, Google, Meta) and the firms successfully executing these cuts. Long Big Tech / Hyperscalers as the drivers of this deflationary productivity boom. Regulatory backlash against mass AI-induced layoffs or a collapse in consumer demand due to rising unemployment.

Addressing a tech company cutting half its staff, Miran says, "This is how productivity gains and technology work... they allow you to produce more with fewer cuts." He dismisses this as a labor crisis and frames it as "technological progress." This validates the "AI Efficiency" bull case. If companies can maintain or grow revenue while slashing headcount by 50% via AI, operating margins will expand significantly. The primary beneficiaries are the hyperscalers providing the infrastructure (Microsoft, Google, Meta) and the firms successfully executing these cuts. Long Big Tech / Hyperscalers as the drivers of this deflationary productivity boom. Regulatory backlash against mass AI-induced layoffs or a collapse in consumer demand due to rising unemployment.

Addressing a tech company cutting half its staff, Miran says, "This is how productivity gains and technology work... they allow you to produce more with fewer cuts." He dismisses this as a labor crisis and frames it as "technological progress." This validates the "AI Efficiency" bull case. If companies can maintain or grow revenue while slashing headcount by 50% via AI, operating margins will expand significantly. The primary beneficiaries are the hyperscalers providing the infrastructure (Microsoft, Google, Meta) and the firms successfully executing these cuts. Long Big Tech / Hyperscalers as the drivers of this deflationary productivity boom. Regulatory backlash against mass AI-induced layoffs or a collapse in consumer demand due to rising unemployment.

"I don't think tariffs is driving goods inflation. Because imported prices are not inflating faster than we expect to see." The market has priced in a risk premium for retailers and importers due to fears of tariff-induced margin compression. Miran argues this data is not materializing. If goods inflation remains low and tariffs are a non-issue, consumer discretionary stocks are undervalued relative to the actual cost pressures they face. LONG Retail/Consumer Discretionary to fade the "tariff fear" narrative. New, more aggressive tariff policies or a drop in consumer spending power.

"Expecting a faster convergence down of new rents... If I end up being worried about housing wrong... we will undershoot our target." Miran's dovishness is predicated on shelter inflation cooling. If the Fed cuts rates based on this "rent convergence" thesis, mortgage rates will stabilize or decline. Lower financing costs combined with the structural housing shortage creates a "Goldilocks" scenario for large homebuilders. LONG Homebuilders as the primary beneficiaries of the "rate cuts + soft landing" thesis. Re-acceleration of shelter inflation or a recession that crushes buyer demand.

"Expecting a faster convergence down of new rents... If I end up being worried about housing wrong... we will undershoot our target." Miran's dovishness is predicated on shelter inflation cooling. If the Fed cuts rates based on this "rent convergence" thesis, mortgage rates will stabilize or decline. Lower financing costs combined with the structural housing shortage creates a "Goldilocks" scenario for large homebuilders. LONG Homebuilders as the primary beneficiaries of the "rate cuts + soft landing" thesis. Re-acceleration of shelter inflation or a recession that crushes buyer demand.

"Expecting a faster convergence down of new rents... If I end up being worried about housing wrong... we will undershoot our target." Miran's dovishness is predicated on shelter inflation cooling. If the Fed cuts rates based on this "rent convergence" thesis, mortgage rates will stabilize or decline. Lower financing costs combined with the structural housing shortage creates a "Goldilocks" scenario for large homebuilders. LONG Homebuilders as the primary beneficiaries of the "rate cuts + soft landing" thesis. Re-acceleration of shelter inflation or a recession that crushes buyer demand.

"I don't think tariffs is driving goods inflation. Because imported prices are not inflating faster than we expect to see." The market has priced in a risk premium for retailers and importers due to fears of tariff-induced margin compression. Miran argues this data is not materializing. If goods inflation remains low and tariffs are a non-issue, consumer discretionary stocks are undervalued relative to the actual cost pressures they face. LONG Retail/Consumer Discretionary to fade the "tariff fear" narrative. New, more aggressive tariff policies or a drop in consumer spending power.

"I don't think tariffs is driving goods inflation. Because imported prices are not inflating faster than we expect to see." The market has priced in a risk premium for retailers and importers due to fears of tariff-induced margin compression. Miran argues this data is not materializing. If goods inflation remains low and tariffs are a non-issue, consumer discretionary stocks are undervalued relative to the actual cost pressures they face. LONG Retail/Consumer Discretionary to fade the "tariff fear" narrative. New, more aggressive tariff policies or a drop in consumer spending power.