Fed's Miran Still Wants Rate Cuts Despite Iran War

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  March 04, 2026 at 14:14  |  4:57  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers

Summary

  • Stephen Miran advocates for continued interest rate cuts (specifically 25bps increments) despite recent geopolitical escalations in the Middle East (Iran).
  • He argues that current inflation data does not show long-term expectations unanchoring, viewing potential supply shocks as temporary rather than structural.
  • A key contrarian view is his dismissal of tariffs as a driver of goods inflation; he notes imported prices are not inflating faster than expected, suggesting the "tariffflation" narrative is overstated.
  • Miran highlights the housing market as a primary source of disinflation, expecting a faster convergence of official data to lower "new rent" levels.
Trade Ideas
Steven Miran Chair, Council of Economic Advisers
"My forecast for inflation calls for continuing interest rate cuts... I prefer to still move it 25 clips." The speaker explicitly dismisses the "Iran War" supply shock as a reason to pause cuts. He believes the Fed should look through supply-side volatility. If the Fed continues to cut rates by 25bps despite geopolitical noise, yields on Treasuries will fall, driving bond prices higher. LONG duration to capture the price appreciation from the continued cutting cycle. A massive spike in oil prices that forces inflation expectations to unanchor, causing the Fed to pivot to a hold or hike.
TLT IEF
Steven Miran Chair, Council of Economic Advisers
"Expecting a faster convergence down of new rents... If I end up being worried about housing wrong... we will undershoot our target." Miran's dovishness is predicated on shelter inflation cooling. If the Fed cuts rates based on this "rent convergence" thesis, mortgage rates will stabilize or decline. Lower financing costs combined with the structural housing shortage creates a "Goldilocks" scenario for large homebuilders. LONG Homebuilders as the primary beneficiaries of the "rate cuts + soft landing" thesis. Re-acceleration of shelter inflation or a recession that crushes buyer demand.
ITB DHI LEN
Steven Miran Chair, Council of Economic Advisers
"I don't think tariffs is driving goods inflation. Because imported prices are not inflating faster than we expect to see." The market has priced in a risk premium for retailers and importers due to fears of tariff-induced margin compression. Miran argues this data is not materializing. If goods inflation remains low and tariffs are a non-issue, consumer discretionary stocks are undervalued relative to the actual cost pressures they face. LONG Retail/Consumer Discretionary to fade the "tariff fear" narrative. New, more aggressive tariff policies or a drop in consumer spending power.
XRT AMZN TGT
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 04, 2026, features Steven Miran discussing TLT, IEF, ITB, DHI, LEN, XRT, AMZN, TGT. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Steven Miran  · Tickers: TLT, IEF, ITB, DHI, LEN, XRT, AMZN, TGT