ITB iShares US Home Construction ETF Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions
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01:51
Sep 03
Sep 03
US housing is in a slump.
Hanke says mortgage rates are keyed off the 10-year Treasury and are now higher than at any time since the 2008 financial crisis, making the housing market sluggish and in a slump. Trump's tariffs on Canadian logs also raise lumber costs and add about $8,500 to the price of an average new home.
MED
07:00
Aug 31
Aug 31
High rates and geopolitics stall housing turnaround
The US housing turnaround is being undercut by mortgage rates at or near 7% after a brief dip below 6% in February, the unresolved Iran war, and a new Fed chair being pressured to raise rates.
HIGH
18:54
Aug 28
Aug 28
Elevated mortgage rates slow US housing
Elevated mortgage rates, holding near 6.66%, are having a real effect on the US housing market, which has slowed to a crawl with July home sales the slowest in six months.
MED
20:35
Aug 27
Aug 27
Tariffs raise US homebuilding costs
The latest US tariffs are likely to produce higher American consumer prices, with the effect especially visible in housing and construction because Canadian lumber and wood products are important inputs. Higher material costs can increase the cost of building homes at a time when US housing affordability is already strained.
MED
11:03
Aug 24
Aug 24
Data centers drive a 10-year power cycle.
Data center construction is driving a 10-year investment cycle. Investors are shifting funds towards these longer, more predictable cycles like power equipment and construction, moving away from the shorter and more volatile semiconductor cycle.
MED
03:22
Aug 24
Aug 24
Buy construction stocks for data center buildouts.
Construction stocks are trading at very low PBRs and will benefit significantly from the upcoming cycle of building AI data centers and semiconductor fabs. They are an attractive play for next year regardless of interest rate movements.
MED
03:20
Aug 21
Aug 21
Cheap valuations and improving earnings offer defense.
Sectors like food, shipbuilding, defense, and construction offer cheap valuations and improving earnings, making them attractive defensive plays in a box-range market.
MED
01:44
Aug 21
Aug 21
Undervalued sectors with strong earnings offer opportunities.
Sectors such as food, shipbuilding, defense, and construction have clearly improving earnings, yet their stock prices remain very cheap, making them highly attractive targets in a market experiencing rapid sector rotation.
MED
12:54
Aug 19
Aug 19
Bessent's bond-market pressure and Warsh's expected appointment signal a bearish long-term bond.
Bessent's bond-market pressure and Warsh's expected appointment signal a bearish long-term bond outlook, while prior context flags US10Y topping risk and bullish leanings toward SW, Space, and ITB as watch-level themes.
18:17
Aug 14
Aug 14
ITB bullish on US10Y topping structure
Buy ITB (homebuilders ETF) as author sees US10Y forming a topping structure with potential breakdown below 4.6%, which would be a tailwind for rate-sensitive homebuilders.
MED
12:10
Aug 14
Aug 14
Topping yields bullish for homebuilders ITB
Buy homebuilders ETF ITB as falling short-term rates and a topping 10Y yield structure (key 4.6% breakdown level) reduce mortgage financing costs, providing a tailwind for the rate-sensitive housing/construction sector.
MED
11:48
Aug 13
Aug 13
Housing, autos, consumer-exposed economy sluggish.
Companies more tied to housing, autos, and the low-to-moderate-income consumer describe the economy as OK, not great, and somewhat sluggish, indicating these areas are lagging infrastructure and AI-exposed parts of the economy.
MED
03:16
Aug 11
Aug 11
Oil refiners and construction stocks are rebounding.
Oil refiners are turning profitable with good refining margins and rising oil prices. Large construction companies are also seeing improved domestic housing margins. Both sectors are rebounding from the bottom.
MED
13:00
Aug 08
Aug 08
Home prices to fall 10–20% by 2028.
Investment banks will hold the housing market together until they book IPO fees, then step back, setting up a significant market correction next year. Eventually a general downturn in the economy will lead to a housing market correction, with home prices likely declining 10–20% on average by 2028, giving back pandemic-era inflation.
MED
12:10
Aug 08
Aug 08
Construction growth driven by AI data centers.
Construction is the only bright spot in the July jobs report, with hiring growth driven by data center build-out related to AI, making it the standout sector while the rest of the labor market weakens.
MED
14:00
Jul 24
Jul 24
Homebuilders oversold, cyclical recovery ahead.
Homebuilding stocks have pulled back dramatically, and the market is pricing in extremely poor results. The downturn is cyclical, and the industry has right-sized to a level of activity that is not sustainable. Valuations are substantially discounted, and increasing activity is likely over the next few years, though timing is uncertain.
MED
17:56
Jul 02
Jul 02
Bearish homebuilders as margins compress
Homebuilder profit margins have collapsed from 20% to 11% due to a severe drop in housing production while employment held up, but if mortgage rates stay in the high-6% range, margins will compress further to 8%, forcing homebuilders into aggressive layoffs that would cascade stress through the economy. He expects the housing construction market to remain under pressure.
MED
18:28
Jul 01
Jul 01
The author describes a narrowing rally, a volatility re-bid, unwound inflation trade.
The author describes a narrowing rally, a volatility re-bid, unwound inflation trade, and USMCA non-renewal damage as key afternoon shifts, but offers no personal positions or forward calls, only watch-level observations.
18:59
Jun 18
Jun 18
Buy homebuilder ETF as author corrects prior bearish call.
Buy homebuilder ETF as author corrects prior bearish call; Warsh's credible inflation commitment and demonstrated Fed independence should stabilize or lower long-end rates, improving the rate-sensitive setup for homebuilders.
MED
14:45
Jun 09
Jun 09
US housing market is deteriorating fast.
The US housing market is significantly weaker than official data indicates. Inventory is undercounted by about 25%, with many new homes missing from listing sites. Delinquencies are rising off historic lows, including early-stage delinquency in prime loans, which should not happen during the spring selling season. Distress selling is accelerating across many local markets, and foreclosures are set to increase materially by Q4 or Q1 as forbearance and loan modification programs expire. The combination of excess supply, unaffordability, and rising distress suggests home prices will decline, and the selling season next year could be very stressed.
HIGH
10:58
May 19
May 19
Homebuilder confidence survey shows rising future sales and traffic components but remains.
Homebuilder confidence survey shows rising future sales and traffic components but remains below the key 50 breakeven level, indicating ongoing weakness.
HIGH
00:05
May 19
May 19
Notes that home builders face litigation over construction quality.
Notes that home builders face litigation over construction quality; tone is negative but no explicit trade recommendation.
HIGH
15:58
May 06
May 06
Cyclicals benefit from Middle East peace
If the Middle East conflict is resolved, cyclical names will benefit from lower front-end yields, improved consumer confidence, and easing of supply chain pressures. Specific plays include retail (XRT), home builders, and regional banks.
HIGH
19:16
May 04
May 04
Avoid homebuilder ETF ITB as proprietary macro nowcast signals inflation accelerating and rates.
Avoid homebuilder ETF ITB as proprietary macro nowcast signals inflation accelerating and rates rising — a combination that pressures housing demand and homebuilder valuations.
MED
01:03
Apr 22
Apr 22
The article highlights that ITB made a new all-time high in 2023 at elevated rates due to the 30-year fixed mortgage lock-in effect, and that the sector is set for another leg higher if real rates tur
The article highlights that ITB made a new all-time high in 2023 at elevated rates due to the 30-year fixed mortgage lock-in effect, and that the sector is set for another leg higher if real rates turn negative.
Risk: A labor market crack or sharp recession would break the lock-in thesis; homebuilder valuations already elevated.
00:59
Apr 21
Apr 21
Author references 'how the ITB and XLRE divergence tells you where capital is actually flowing', suggesting homebuilders are part of the real estate opportunity set.
Author references 'how the ITB and XLRE divergence tells you where capital is actually flowing', suggesting homebuilders are part of the real estate opportunity set.
Risk: Sensitivity to mortgage rates and housing demand; divergence may be temporary.
19:31
Apr 13
Apr 13
Added to housing and software sectors.
Added to housing and software sectors after trimming energy, believing these sectors will perform well based on underlying fundamentals.
MED
13:00
Apr 11
Apr 11
US home prices have peaked and will be flat.
Home prices in the US have peaked for this cycle, with Q1 2026 likely being the statistical peak. He expects flat to slightly lower prices for the year and potentially years of sideways action, citing affordability issues and specific market weaknesses in Houston and Clearwater. He advises sellers to consider taking offers now.
HIGH
13:45
Mar 16
Mar 16
"I think we should have two cuts later on in the year... the Fed has got to look through this [oil spike]." Homebuilders are highly sensitive to mortgage rates. If the Fed successfully looks through the temporary commodity noise and executes two rate cuts, mortgage rates will decline. Lower mortgage rates improve housing affordability, unlocking pent-up buyer demand and expanding profit margins for large, publicly traded homebuilders who can offer rate buydowns. LONG. A dovish Fed cutting rates into a structurally undersupplied housing market directly benefits major homebuilders. If the Fed is forced to hold rates higher for longer due to sticky services inflation, mortgage rates will remain elevated, suppressing housing demand.
18:12
Mar 14
Mar 14
We still have a little bit of a negative pipeline going forward, meaning that housing construction activity is still going to come down over the next several months. Housing starts are currently trailing housing completions. This means the backlog of construction work is actively shrinking. As this pipeline dries up, residential homebuilders will experience reduced revenues, margin compression, and a decreased need for construction labor. AVOID. The sector is still facing a structural contraction in pipeline activity and will likely need more aggressive monetary policy support (rate cuts) before a true fundamental bottom is formed. The Federal Reserve cuts rates faster than anticipated, which would quickly lower mortgage rates, stimulate new housing starts, and reverse the negative pipeline trend.
About ITB Analyst Coverage
Buzzberg tracks ITB (iShares US Home Construction ETF) across 22 sources. 38 bullish vs 2 bearish calls from 63 analysts. Sentiment: predominantly bullish (44%). 81 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days: 3 watch. Latest voices: Steve Hanke, Kelly Evans, Nikki Waller.