Capital Flows 5.0 3 ideas

if they try to really push down the dollar, it might cause equities to go up... but there's a very significant downside scenario similar to 2025 where because foreigners aren't hedged in their dollar risk... every major equity index in the world is like at all-time high valuations. The incoming administration may attempt to devalue the US Dollar to rebalance global trade. Because foreign investors hold massive, unhedged positions in US equities, a falling dollar will force them to sell their US stock holdings to manage their currency risk, triggering a broad market selloff despite domestic liquidity. WATCH. The global positioning mismatch creates a massive tail risk for US equities if the government actively pursues a weaker dollar policy. The administration abandons the weak dollar policy, or domestic retail and institutional buying absorbs the foreign selling pressure.

Oracle is the only company that is basically levering up really aggressively and pulling all negative returns into the present and pushing all future returns into the or all exponential returns into the future. Larry Ellison is aggressively using the company's balance sheet and capex to build AI infrastructure. Because he owns 40% of the company and they have heavily bought back shares, the public float is incredibly small. The recent stock drawdown has already priced in the heavy capex, creating a bottoming formation before the exponential AI revenue is realized. LONG. Oracle is a high-conviction, leveraged play on AI infrastructure with a tightly controlled float and a founder aggressively aligning the balance sheet for massive future growth. AI capex fails to generate the expected exponential returns, or competitors like xAI outcompete them in the specific infrastructure race Ellison is betting on.