Critical Minerals: Africa's Strategic Moment | Bloomberg Next Africa
Speakers
Summary
- The Copper Supercycle is driven by AI and Grids: Copper prices are at all-time highs, driven not just by EVs, but significantly by the build-out of AI data centers and global power grids. Africa (specifically the DRC and Zambia) is central to this supply, with Zambia targeting a 3x production increase to 3 million tonnes by 2031.
- Infrastructure is the New Geopolitical Battleground: A "railway race" is unfolding. The US/EU are backing the Lobito Corridor (Atlantic access), while China is refurbishing the Tazara railway (Indian Ocean access). This competition creates a floor for infrastructure investment and de-risks logistics for miners in the Copperbelt.
- Botswana's Strategic Pivot: Historically dependent on diamonds, Botswana is aggressively diversifying into copper, manganese, and soda ash as diamond demand softens. The government is launching a state-owned exploration company to de-risk projects for private investors.
- AI in Mining: The era of "easy finds" is over. Companies like KoBold Metals are deploying AI to analyze historical data and explore vast areas (3,000 sq km in DRC), signaling a shift from traditional prospecting to data-driven exploration.
Trade Ideas
There is a geopolitical race to build rail. The US/EU are funding the Lobito Corridor (Angola-DRC-Zambia), and China is spending $1.4B to refurbish the Tazara railway (Zambia-Tanzania). This is government-guaranteed infrastructure spending. It benefits the engineering and construction firms contracted to build these lines. Furthermore, improved logistics lower the "all-in sustaining costs" (AISC) for miners in the region, making the miners themselves more profitable. LONG. Infrastructure plays and the miners that utilize these specific corridors. Project delays or geopolitical friction slowing down funding disbursement.
Tiwa Adebayo
Reporter, Bloomberg
Copper prices are at all-time highs. Demand is soaring due to "grid expansions, electrification, and the rapid build-out of AI data centers." Zambia and DRC are the richest copper regions, with Zambia targeting a triple in production by 2031. The supply constraint is geological and logistical. Existing large-cap miners with established assets in the Central African Copperbelt (like Ivanhoe and Glencore) are the immediate beneficiaries of this volume push and price appreciation. The AI data center narrative adds a new, non-cyclical demand layer to the traditional industrial thesis. LONG. Pure-play copper miners and those with significant African belts are best positioned. Political instability in DRC/Zambia or failure of logistics infrastructure (rail) to come online on time.
Bogolo Kenewendo
Minister of Minerals and Energy, Botswana
The Minister of Minerals explicitly states, "global demand for diamonds softens" and admits that having a "monolithic economy [dependent on diamonds] isn't always the best." Botswana is actively pivoting *away* from diamonds toward copper and manganese. When the world's leading diamond jurisdiction signals a strategic pivot away from the stone due to softening demand, it confirms a structural bearish trend for natural diamonds (likely due to lab-grown competition and macro headwinds). AVOID. The sector faces structural demand destruction. A sudden resurgence in luxury goods demand in China/US could spike diamond prices temporarily.
Benjamin Katabuka
CEO, KoBold Metals DRC
KoBold Metals is launching the largest exploration campaign in the DRC, using AI to digitize decades of data because "most of the easy mines of the world have already been found." Exploration is moving from physical prospecting to data science. This implies a premium on mining services companies that offer proprietary geological data analysis or AI-driven surveying. WATCH. Look for public mining service companies adopting similar AI tech or junior miners partnering with tech-first explorers. High cash burn rates for exploration companies with no guarantee of discovery.
Tiwa Adebayo
Reporter, Bloomberg
Despite the hype around "critical minerals" (lithium/cobalt), Gold remains the "continent's most enduring mineral story." Ghana has overtaken South Africa as the top producer, and gold remains the critical source of FX and revenue for these economies. While the world pivots to green metals, the economic stability of these mining jurisdictions still rests on gold. High production levels in Ghana and Burkina Faso, combined with central bank demand (implied as "underpinning economies"), support the miners operating there. LONG. Gold miners with West African exposure remain cash cows despite the lack of "green tech" multiple expansion. Local resource nationalism or tax hikes as governments seek to capture more revenue from legacy minerals.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 28, 2026, features Matthew Hill, Tiwa Adebayo, Bogolo Kenewendo, Benjamin Katabuka discussing ITB, PAVE, IVN.TO, COPX, FCX, GLNCY, ALUK, BOTZ, GLD, GDX. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Matthew Hill, Tiwa Adebayo, Bogolo Kenewendo, Benjamin Katabuka · Tickers: ITB, PAVE, IVN.TO, COPX, FCX, GLNCY, ALUK, BOTZ, GLD, GDX