Bloomberg Surveillance 2/25/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Macro Disconnect: Despite President Trump's "Roaring Economy" rhetoric (SOTU), bond yields remain sedate (~4%), and economists like Neil Dutta argue private demand is actually slowing, not accelerating.
- Tariff Confusion: The administration is navigating a legal pivot from IEEPA to Section 122/301. While currently at 10%, the intent is to raise tariffs to 15% "where appropriate," creating uncertainty for importers and supply chains.
- NVIDIA as the Market Linchpin: NVDA earnings are viewed as the critical sentiment lever. Bulls (Zino, Emanuel) see sustained margins and demand; the lone Bear (Goldberg) argues capacity constraints and capital market stress cap upside.
- Geopolitical Risk: Peter Tchir predicts kinetic military action involving the U.S. and Iran within weeks, favoring defense and energy assets.
- AI Disruption: A clear bifurcation is emerging—Hardware/Infrastructure (NVDA) is winning, while Software (WDAY, CRM) is suffering from displacement fears ("AI deflation").
Trade Ideas
Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, etc.) have massively stepped up capex plans for 2026/2027. This spend flows directly to Nvidia. Despite fears of a bubble, the market is compressing multiples for future years (healthy behavior), and gross margins are sustaining in the mid-70s. LONG NVDA into/after earnings. Gross margin compression below 75% or supply chain hiccups.
The semiconductor industry is at a historic peak of capacity constraints (TSMC manufacturing and packaging). Nvidia cannot physically ship enough units to beat elevated expectations significantly. Furthermore, capital market stress is emerging for financing the massive data centers required to use these chips. SHORT NVDA (Goldberg is the "Sole Sell" on the street). Nvidia secures unexpected capacity or pricing power offsets volume constraints.
The U.S. administration is signaling imminent action regarding Iran ("weeks away"). Tchir expects "kinetic" military attacks to bring Iran to the negotiating table. This geopolitical escalation historically benefits defense contractors and oil prices. LONG DEFENSE SECTOR / LONG ENERGY. Diplomatic resolution occurs without military escalation.
TJX reported an earnings beat and is on an 18-year winning run. The consumer is becoming "choosier" and hunting for value. TJX benefits from the trade-down effect where consumers seek discounts rather than full-price retail. LONG TJX. Supply chain disruptions from new tariffs increase costs.
BlackRock has been adding gold to portfolios, and it has been a top contributor. Gold is no longer just a hedge/ballast; it is a structural investment driven by central bank diversification and geopolitical/inflation fears. LONG GOLD. Real interest rates spike significantly.
Jonathan Ferro
Anchor, Bloomberg Television
Workday shares down ~10% pre-market; stock down 40% YTD. The market fears AI will disrupt enterprise software demand (seat-based pricing models under threat). Earnings guidance softened, validating these fears. AVOID WDAY (and broader SOFTWARE SECTOR facing AI deflation). Oversold bounce if management articulates a clear AI monetization strategy.
Julian Emanuel
Evercore ISI
The sector is a "consensus overweight" coming into the year, but valuations remain expensive. In the current environment, the market is "shooting first and asking questions later" regarding sector rotation. Financials are vulnerable to this sentiment shift despite no systemic failure. AVOID US BANKS. Economic growth accelerates ("Roaring Economy") boosting loan demand.
Kate Moore
Head of Thematic Strategy, BlackRock
The firm remains cautious on taking risk in duration (long-term bonds). Despite the "sedate" yield environment, structural headwinds (deficits, inflation stickiness) make long-duration bonds unattractive compared to equities or gold. AVOID US TREASURIES (Long Duration). A sharp recession forces the Fed to cut rates aggressively.
Neil Dutta
Renaissance Macro (Quoted)
Housing starts are running below completions by over 1,000 units. This mathematical reality means housing units under construction must fall. Combined with waning demand (no "Golden Age" for private demand), this weighs heavily on the construction sector. SHORT HOMEBUILDERS / CONSTRUCTION SECTOR. Unexpected drop in mortgage rates reignites demand.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 25, 2026, features Angelo Zino, Jay Goldberg, Peter Tchir, Lisa Abramowicz, Kate Moore, Jonathan Ferro, Julian Emanuel, Neil Dutta discussing NVDA, XLE, ITA, TJX, GOLD, WDAY, KBE, TLT, ITB. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Angelo Zino, Jay Goldberg, Peter Tchir, Lisa Abramowicz, Kate Moore, Jonathan Ferro, Julian Emanuel, Neil Dutta · Tickers: NVDA, XLE, ITA, TJX, GOLD, WDAY, KBE, TLT, ITB