WD WDAY Workday Inc. Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Hardware spend crowds out software revenue.

Enterprise software subscriptions cut for hardware.

Watch enterprise SaaS names as read-through from IBM's revenue miss; discretionary IT spending concerns and capex shift away from software create near-term sector headwinds, but no explicit short or avoid call from the author.

A former Oracle employee discusses the company's full-stack advantage over Amazon and Microsoft while noting growing competition in ERP from Microsoft, SAP, and Workday.

A judge ruled that Workday must face a lawsuit alleging its AI hiring tools discriminated against disabled, Black, female, and older applicants.

Workday must face a California lawsuit alleging that its AI job screening tools are biased, according to a report.

Author explicitly states 75% of holdings are in AI enablers and power/energy stocks with a 10% position in AI beneficiaries, framing these as current long positions with a rotation thesis.

Named as a notable AI beneficiary basket name alongside INTU/CRM/TEAM/SAP; no explicit position language, framed as "good names" in the field.

Named as additional AI beneficiary candidates in a thematic basket; author does not disclose a position, per SPEAKER NOTE these are read-through watch names.

Named as additional AI beneficiary candidates in the same sector bucket as author's core holdings; no explicit ownership or position language attached.

Long large-cap software leaders insulated from disruption

Watch Workday as AI fears are overstated for companies owning critical enterprise data and workflows.

Named as a notable enterprise HR and finance platform deploying AI to enhance workforce productivity in a thematic AI basket.

Named in author's AI beneficiary basket — enterprise software companies cited as long-term beneficiaries of AI adoption and workflow automation growth.

Author argues the AI run will continue with four reasons and lists beneficiary and enabler tickers as thematic read-through baskets, not explicit positions.

Author explicitly states they are invested in and long-term bullish on beneficiaries like RDDT, ZETA, PLTR, and TEAM, arguing their financials are improving and AI will aid their business, making them undervalued buys.

Watch WDAY as Workday faces headwinds from budget prioritization shifting to AI infrastructure and away from discretionary transformation projects.

Watch Workday as a system-of-record data beneficiary; AI increases the value of HR and finance datasets when connected to governed analytics and agent workflows, providing a low-to-medium positive read-through.

The tweet contrasts market reactions to Intuit's modest beat and raise being called a terrible quarter versus Workday's reiterated guidance being called a great quarter, highlighting fintwit's inconsistent framing.

The tweet reports contrasting market reactions to Intuit's modest beat and raise being called a terrible quarter versus Workday's reiterated guidance being called a great quarter, without expressing a forward-looking view.

Avoid seat-model software stocks.

WDAY is explicitly mentioned alongside CRM as a potential move. Same logic as CRM – if the “Claude killed SaaS” narrative is false, WDAY should rebound. Contrarian long on Workday, following the same pattern. WDAY’s HCM/ERP niche may be more vulnerable to AI substitution; execution risk.

Owns Intuit, Workday, Salesforce, Roper for gains.

Long WDAY as a cloud/SaaS player that could be viewed similarly to Salesforce in leveraging AWS infrastructure.

True FCF yield of 7%, 5-year FCF CAGR of 40%, stock down -50% over the past year. Wall Street assumes HR software cycle dead, but the company compounds cash aggressively and the moat is intact. Buying a high-quality compounding machine at half price; market overreaction creates margin of safety. HR software demand could structurally decline if AI agents replace seat-based models; customer concentration or macro slowdown.

The author expresses caution on stocks like WDAY and ADBE that have fallen over 50% and face a growth cliff with forward sales estimates below 20%, suggesting a moody and risky outlook.

Software stocks cheap with growth and AI opportunity.

Buy WDAY as the current 3x sales valuation is an unjustified discount driven by AI fears and management concerns, with fair value closer to 6-8x sales for a business of this quality.

Workday scored 3.67 for AI resilience, identical to CrowdStrike's score. While CrowdStrike is only down 13%, Workday is down 37% YTD, showing a massive divergence in market treatment for the same risk profile. WDAY is mispriced relative to its actual AI disruption risk and offers a strong value entry point. AI models could eventually replicate HR systems, though organizational inertia currently protects it.

Chamath presents chart showing SaaS companies like Snowflake had high valuation multiples (e.g., ~100 years to repay via free cash flow in 2023) that are now compressing sharply. AI disruption threatens the durability of cash flows, leading markets to rerate these companies based on perceived fragility in a world of potential superintelligence. Avoid due to valuation reset and increased discount rates applied to future cash flows. If AI disruption is slower or less severe than expected, cash flows may remain durable.