Chris Verrone

Brent Crude broke $85. Qatar Energy halted LNG output. 20% of global energy supply is at risk due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. "Battalion Energy" (BATL) is explicitly mentioned as up ~127% tracking oil. The market is repricing a structural risk premium into energy. Unlike 2022, US producers are insulated from the physical blockade but benefit from global price spikes. Verrone notes Energy leadership predates the war, confirming a structural trend. LONG US-based energy producers and the broad sector. Rapid de-escalation or release of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) dampening prices.

The NASDAQ is down, yet more stocks are advancing than declining. 97% of energy stocks are above their 200-day moving average. This is a "Market of the Many." The concentration risk of the Mag-7 is unwinding, but capital isn't leaving the market; it is rotating into the "average stock" (Equal Weight), Industrials, and Midcaps. Long Equal Weight (RSP) and Industrials (XLI) over the QQQ. A recession that drags down cyclical sectors.

Money is rotating out of mega-cap tech and finds a home elsewhere; banks are breaking out as part of this rotational tape, presenting an opportunity.

Japanese markets sold off heavily (correlated with global risk-off). Verrone argues the structural bull case for Japan (corporate reform, robotics, industrials) remains intact. The sell-off is an emotional reaction, creating an entry point for "oversold conditions." LONG Japanese Equities (Buy the dip). Continued global contagion or Yen volatility.

Global bank stocks are in good shape with sound technical footing, relative leadership, and benign credit conditions. They have reclaimed the bar of leadership not just domestically but also in Europe and Japan, and financial stocks overall remain in a strong uptrend with credit spreads benign.

Main Street/regional banks are the sweet spot now. Large investment banks have had a good run and valuations are full, while improved loan growth, a steepening yield curve, and regulatory tailwinds make regional banks more attractive. Year-over-year comps for investment banking will also get tougher.

Apple is the only Mag-7 stock making a new high in June, signaling relative strength and leadership as money rotates away from other mega-cap names.

Money from the Mag-7 sell-off is flowing into health care, with Eli Lilly making new highs while getting little attention, offering a potential under-the-radar opportunity.

Money from the Mag-7 sell-off is flowing into health care, with Eli Lilly making new highs while getting little attention, offering a potential under-the-radar opportunity.

BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale have strong technical charts and are part of the AI trade through copper buildout. They also benefit from geopolitical factors and look attractive here.

BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale have strong technical charts and are part of the AI trade through copper buildout. They also benefit from geopolitical factors and look attractive here.

BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale have strong technical charts and are part of the AI trade through copper buildout. They also benefit from geopolitical factors and look attractive here.

Consumer discretionary is showing momentum with 80% of discretionary stocks hitting one-month highs, the best rating in about four years. Despite high oil prices, the sector is working, indicating the market sees something constructive for discretionary.

"It's crazy to me that you see all these narratives being written that central banks are going to tighten into this. I think central banks have learned along the way you don't tighten into energy shocks. I think if anything... we should be talking about more cuts, not less cuts down the line." The market is currently pricing in hawkish central bank behavior due to inflation fears from an energy shock. However, if the Fed prioritizes growth and cuts rates instead of tightening, long-duration bonds will aggressively reprice higher as yields fall. LONG long-duration Treasury bonds as a contrarian play against the narrative of central banks tightening into an energy-driven economic slowdown. If inflation becomes unanchored and forces the Fed to actually hike rates despite slowing growth (stagflation), long-duration bonds will suffer severe drawdowns.

Brent Crude broke $85. Qatar Energy halted LNG output. 20% of global energy supply is at risk due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. "Battalion Energy" (BATL) is explicitly mentioned as up ~127% tracking oil. The market is repricing a structural risk premium into energy. Unlike 2022, US producers are insulated from the physical blockade but benefit from global price spikes. Verrone notes Energy leadership predates the war, confirming a structural trend. LONG US-based energy producers and the broad sector. Rapid de-escalation or release of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) dampening prices.