#603 Alpha Score 53.4

Jack Farley

Host, Monetary Matters
@JackFarley96 · tracked since Mar 2026
603
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Alpha Score 53.4
Calls
8
Win Rate
62.5%
return
+3.5%
Calls 8 9 Posts tracked · 0.1/day
Calls
7d 0
30d 4
90d 6
Best Calls
CORN Long +18.0%
SOYB Long +11.6%
NVDA Long +6.8%
Worst Calls
LRCX Long -8.8%
SILVER Long -4.3%
SMH Long -3.9%
Most Mentioned
SMH ×4
NVDA ×2
MU ×1
Recent Calls
SILVER Long 1 week ago
IGV Long 1 week ago
MU Long 4 weeks ago
Win Rate 62% Long 8 Short 0
Win Rate
7d 25%
30d 50%
90d 0%
Average Return +3.5% Long Return +3.5% Short Return -
Average Return
7d -1.4%
30d +1.5%
90d -1.3%
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Result
Result
Sort
Theme Stance
Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
May 13
$572.93
-3.9%
AI demand drives semiconductor demand
The semiconductor industry benefits from physical bottlenecks in GPU production, memory manufacturing, and foundry capacity. Only a few players control the market, making it a 'picks and shovels' play with high barriers to entry. This structural advantage supports continued outperformance.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jun 20
$210.69
+6.8%
Nvidia remains top pick
Nvidia is the name he is most excited about right now. Despite bubble risks, its dominance and earnings power make it a strong long. He has had success in semiconductor call options and sees Nvidia as the standout opportunity.
AI Compute
Long
Aug 26
$61.60
-4.3%
Silver has modelable industrial demand.
Jack is more bullish on silver than gold because silver demand from solar, AI data centers and industrial uses is modelable in real supply-demand terms. Silver supply is also less responsive because much of it comes as a byproduct of gold, copper and zinc mines, which can create sharp squeezes.
Commodities
Long
Aug 20
$101.94
+2.4%
Buy cheap software stocks sold off.
For people who believe AI is a bubble, Jack suggests buying software stocks that have been sold off indiscriminately because the market assumes AI will ruin them. Many trade at only 15-20x earnings, so they are an obvious non-bubble pocket of the stock market with upside if those fears are overdone.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Aug 04
$316.21
-8.8%
Semiconductor earnings growth remains exceptional and underestimated.
Extraordinary earnings growth in the semiconductor space will continue, driven by AI capex and hyperscaler spending, making the sector bullish. Analyst estimates for Lam Research are too low; if Lam Research's earnings exceed expectations, memory prices will remain high, leaving Micron trading at only 8x earnings and undervalued.
Foundry Equipment
Long
Aug 04
$895.63
+6.4%
Semiconductor earnings growth remains exceptional and underestimated.
Extraordinary earnings growth in the semiconductor space will continue, driven by AI capex and hyperscaler spending, making the sector bullish. Analyst estimates for Lam Research are too low; if Lam Research's earnings exceed expectations, memory prices will remain high, leaving Micron trading at only 8x earnings and undervalued.
AI Memory
Long
Jun 10
$17.11
+18.0%
Fertilizer cost pinch tightens corn supply
Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten fertilizer trade, raising input costs for US corn farmers. If fertilizer economics become too difficult, farmers may reduce application or switch crops, tightening corn supply and potentially supporting corn prices. The pinch on the producer side could become a price-supportive supply story on the commodity side.
Commodities
Long
Mar 11
$24.75
+11.6%
"China has committed to purchasing at least 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually through 2028... At the same time, the EPA has proposed increasing biomass-based diesel mandates by as much as 67% for 2026, and soybean oil is the leading domestic feed stock." Soybeans are benefiting from a dual-demand shock: guaranteed international trade flows (China) and domestic regulatory tailwinds (EPA renewable diesel mandates). This structural demand will outpace supply, driving up the underlying commodity price. LONG. The Teucrium Soybean Fund provides direct exposure to a commodity with legally and geopolitically mandated demand growth. Changes in EPA regulations, breakdown of the US-China bilateral trade framework, or adverse weather patterns affecting crop yields.
"China has committed to purchasing at least 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually through 2028... At the same time, the EPA has proposed increasing biomass-based diesel mandates by as much as 67% for 2026, and soybean oil is the leading domestic feed stock." Soybeans are benefiting from a dual-demand shock: guaranteed international trade flows (China) and domestic regulatory tailwinds (EPA renewable diesel mandates). This structural demand will outpace supply, driving up the underlying commodity price. LONG. The Teucrium Soybean Fund provides direct exposure to a commodity with legally and geopolitically mandated demand growth. Changes in EPA regulations, breakdown of the US-China bilateral trade framework, or adverse weather patterns affecting crop yields.
Commodities
Showing 8 of 8 calls · sorted by mentions

Jack Farley has 8 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 8 tickers since March 2026. Ranked #603 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: SMH, NVDA, MU.