Nvidia Forecast Fails to Relieve Concerns | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 2/26/2026
Speakers
Chris Miller — Author, "Chip War" / Professor, Tufts University
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- Nvidia's "Greatest Print" Paradox: Despite beating earnings with >75% gross margins, NVDA stock fell ~5.3%. The equity market is punishing the "Capex Spend" narrative, while the credit market views NVDA as the next "Triple-A rated name" with tightening spreads.
- The AI Capex Disconnect: Investors are punishing Hyperscalers (customers) for high spending, which logically hurts the recipient (NVDA) in the short term. However, "Chip War" author Chris Miller argues the infrastructure build-out is necessary and barely scratching the surface of demand.
- Smartphone Contraction: IDC forecasts a 13% drop in smartphone shipments due to a "memory shortage," signaling supply chain bottlenecks are returning, which is deflationary for hardware volumes but inflationary for component pricing.
- Housing Pivot: 30-year mortgage rates dropped 6% (relative change) for the first time since 2022, creating a potential inflection point for real estate activity just as political discussions (Trump/NYC Mayor) turn toward housing funding.
Trade Ideas
NVDA reported >75% gross margins and record growth, yet stock fell 5.3%. Credit analyst Schiffman calls it "the greatest print in the history of the stock market" and notes credit spreads are tightening, predicting NVDA will become a Triple-A rated issuer. There is a massive dislocation between Equity sentiment (fearing Capex saturation) and Credit reality (seeing robust cash flow and solvency). Miller confirms that AI demand is structural, not cyclical, and Hyperscalers (MSFT/META/GOOGL) are "investing capital into cash flow-generating assets." LONG. The credit market is often the "smart money." When credit spreads tighten while equity drops on a beat, it usually signals a buying opportunity in the equity once sentiment stabilizes. If the "return on investment" for AI (productivity gains) fails to materialize in non-tech sectors, the Capex cycle will collapse.
CRM (Salesforce) stock is up 3.5% post-earnings and announced a $50B stock buyback. In a market jittery about "AI spend with no return," investors are flocking to "System of Record" companies that demonstrate capital discipline (buybacks) alongside growth. LONG. The buyback provides a massive floor for the stock and signals management confidence in cash flow. Slowing enterprise software spend.
PARA is surging 10.2% on takeover bids (Skydance/Apollo implied). NFLX is up 3.2%. Consolidation in the media sector is accelerating. PARA is the target, but NFLX benefits from the "scarcity value" of being the dominant, standalone winner as legacy players merge to survive. LONG. Momentum trade on PARA (event-driven) and NFLX (sector leader). Regulatory blocking of M&A deals.
Charlie Pellett
Anchor/Reporter, Bloomberg
IDC reports the smartphone market is set to fall 13% specifically because of a "memory shortage." A "shortage" that is severe enough to kill 13% of global smartphone volume implies massive pricing power for the manufacturers of that memory. While bad for phone makers, this is bullish for the commodity price of DRAM/NAND. LONG. Supply constraints equal pricing leverage for memory fabricators. Demand destruction if end-users simply refuse to buy expensive devices.
Carol Massar
Anchor, Bloomberg
30-year mortgage rates fell 6% (relative decline) for the first time since 2022. Housing affordability has been the primary lock on the market. A sharp drop in rates acts as an immediate liquidity injection for homebuilders and mortgage activity. LONG. Lower rates directly correlate to increased mortgage applications and new home starts. If rates fall due to a severe recession/unemployment, buyers won't qualify regardless of the rate.
Charlie Pellett
Anchor/Reporter, Bloomberg
Victory Capital agreed to buy Janus Henderson (JHG) for $57.04/share. JHG shares are up 5.5%. This is a confirmed M&A event. The target (JHG) typically trades up to the offer price (minus risk premium), while the acquirer often drops (Victory down 7%). LONG JHG (Arbitrage/Deal closure). Deal falls through due to regulatory scrutiny.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 26, 2026, features Robert Schiffman, Charlie Pellett, Carol Massar discussing NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, CRM, PARA, NFLX, SOXX, XLRE, ITB, JHG. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Robert Schiffman, Charlie Pellett, Carol Massar · Tickers: NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, CRM, PARA, NFLX, SOXX, XLRE, ITB, JHG