PIMCO’s Marc Seidner: Why Private Credit Looks Like 2007 All Over Again

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 01, 2026 at 14:00  |  38:17  |  Meb Faber Show
Speakers
Marc Seidner — Managing Director, PIMCO

Summary

Marc Seidner, PIMCO's CIO of Non-traditional Strategies, discusses the golden age of fixed income with high-quality intermediate bonds yielding 7%, calls out private credit as reminiscent of 2007, and recommends global diversification favoring value, real assets, and emerging market bonds. He highlights geopolitical risks and the K-shaped economy as key drivers for portfolio construction.

  • Fixed income offers compelling yields, especially high-quality intermediate duration bonds (7% yield).
  • Private credit markets show deterioration similar to pre-2008 subprime, with overvaluation and transparency issues.
  • Global diversification is critical; value, real assets, and international bonds are favored over US large-cap growth.
  • Emerging market bonds provide high real yields due to better fiscal/monetary discipline than developed markets.
  • Commodities and TIPS are recommended as hedges against geopolitical risk and inflation.
  • The K-shaped economy is widening disparities between upper and lower income earners and businesses.
  • Specific sovereign bonds: US 10-year (4.4%), Australia 10-year (5%), UK 10-year (4.75%), Japan 30-year hedged (6.5%) are attractive.
  • Politics and geopolitics are now primary drivers of markets, requiring an 'expect the unexpected' mindset.
Trade Ideas
Marc Seidner Managing Director, PIMCO 15:06
Avoid private credit and BDCs
Private credit and direct lending markets show deterioration similar to subprime mortgage buildup pre-2008. Too much money chasing too few good ideas, underwriting weakness, and lack of transparency make the sector risky. BDCs trade at large discounts to NAV, signaling overvaluation.
BIZD BDCs (Business Development Companies) HIGH
Marc Seidner Managing Director, PIMCO 22:00
Long broad-based commodities
A broad-based, actively managed commodity portfolio can hedge geopolitical and supply chain risks, provide diversification, and capture elevated risk premiums in commodity spreads. Investors are underweight commodities.
PDBC MED
Marc Seidner Managing Director, PIMCO 24:12
10-year TIPS at 2% real yield
10-year TIPS paying a 2% real yield provide a straightforward inflation hedge and attractive real income, especially given potential supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks.
10-year TIPS HIGH
Marc Seidner Managing Director, PIMCO 29:00
US 10-year Treasuries attractive at 4.4%
US 10-year Treasuries at 4.4% offer a compelling yield in a high-quality, intermediate duration fixed income portfolio. With inflation moderating, real yields are attractive and provide a strong source of income and total return.
US 10-year Treasuries HIGH
Marc Seidner Managing Director, PIMCO 29:06
Australian 10-year bonds at 5%
Australian 10-year government bonds yielding 5% provide a high-quality, global diversification opportunity with a meaningful yield pickup versus US Treasuries.
Australian 10-year government bonds HIGH
Marc Seidner Managing Director, PIMCO 29:13
UK 10-year bonds at 4.75%
UK 10-year government bonds at 4.75% offer similar appeal to Australian bonds, with high credit quality and attractive real yields in a global fixed income context.
UK 10-year government bonds HIGH
Marc Seidner Managing Director, PIMCO 29:48
Japanese 30-year JGB hedged 6.5%
Japanese 30-year government bonds hedged back to dollars yield 6.5%, offering an interesting global diversification opportunity with a high yield after hedging cost.
Japanese 30-year government bonds (USD hedged) HIGH
Marc Seidner Managing Director, PIMCO 30:33
EM bonds offer high real yields
Emerging market bonds (Peru, Mexico, South Africa, Brazil) offer high real yields (3%+ real) due to disciplined policymaking and lower inflation than developed markets. These provide attractive income and diversification.
PPLT Mexico government bonds South Africa government bonds EMB HIGH
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This Meb Faber Show video, published May 01, 2026, features Marc Seidner discussing BIZD, BDCs (Business Development Companies), PDBC, 10-year TIPS, US 10-year Treasuries, Australian 10-year government bonds, UK 10-year government bonds, Japanese 30-year government bonds (USD hedged), PPLT, Mexico government bonds, South Africa government bonds, EMB. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Marc Seidner  · Tickers: BIZD, BDCs (Business Development Companies), PDBC, 10-year TIPS, US 10-year Treasuries, Australian 10-year government bonds, UK 10-year government bonds, Japanese 30-year government bonds (USD hedged), PPLT, Mexico government bonds, South Africa government bonds, EMB