EMB iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions
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16:30
Sep 02
Sep 02
El Nino hurts emerging markets most.
El Nino is not primarily a US inflation story but will create severe droughts and floods in Australia, Brazil, the Mediterranean and parts of Asia. Emerging markets are almost certain to face more inflation and worse economic outcomes, making the bigger trade an emerging market currency and debt trade rather than commodities.
MED
15:06
Sep 01
Sep 01
Emerging markets debt has structural tailwinds.
Emerging markets debt is a structural overweight theme: post-April trade policy, the dollar weakened and capital flowed into EM; many EM countries have better balance sheets and inflation dynamics than developed markets, with focus on policy direction and idiosyncratic opportunities.
HIGH
12:43
Sep 01
Sep 01
Favor quality income and emerging debt.
Despite the preference for equities over credit and government bonds, there are good income opportunities in fixed income and beyond. Wei Li specifically prefers quality income in credit, is overweight emerging market debt, and also sees interesting income strategies in infrastructure debt and private credit.
MED
06:15
Aug 31
Aug 31
Diversify from dollar into alternative assets.
Perceived erosion of U.S. institutional credibility and dollar debasement is pushing investors to diversify away from the dollar into gold, Bitcoin, emerging market debt and non-dollar currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and euro.
MED
22:45
Aug 25
Aug 25
Brazilian credit spreads look too low
Credit investors systematically underestimate default risk, so Brazilian credit spreads stay very low until problems appear and then blow out 500-1000 bps; today's spread level looks underestimated.
HIGH
17:30
Aug 20
Aug 20
Favor income credit over duration bonds
With bonds no longer diversifying as they once did, portfolios should shift toward stable income from corporate credit, emerging market credit, and private credit and infrastructure across public and private markets.
HIGH
23:00
Aug 14
Aug 14
High yields make diversified fixed income attractive
Rieder argues high real rates let investors build a diversified fixed-income portfolio with almost 7% yield at an average A- rating and less than three years of interest-rate exposure, without stretching credit risk. He says high yield should be trading 150-200 basis points lower in yield, and he owns high yield, emerging markets, securitized assets, and more Europe than the U.S.
HIGH
13:21
Aug 13
Aug 13
Emerging market debt provides diversified fixed-income opportunities.
There are attractive opportunities across fixed income, including emerging market debt, providing a more diversified set of options compared to the AI-dominated equity market.
MED
10:22
Aug 13
Aug 13
Emerging markets offer high real yields.
He likes emerging markets because some opportunities offer high real yields and central banks that have built credibility by keeping rates elevated relative to inflation; investors are under-allocated and can shift away from the dollar.
MED
17:32
Aug 07
Aug 07
EM debt attractive, stable dollar.
Emerging markets debt is interesting, particularly because the U.S. dollar is not expected to move aggressively.
HIGH
14:44
Aug 07
Aug 07
Emerging markets debt attractive.
Emerging market debt offers good opportunities, especially if the dollar does not move aggressively. It fits the strategy of achieving higher yields without excessive risk.
MED
10:19
Aug 05
Aug 05
Emerging market debt attractive versus equities.
Emerging market debt can provide equity-like returns with less downside, making it a preferred risk asset.
MED
11:45
Jul 22
Jul 22
Long EM debt on credible policies
Emerging market economies have pursued more credible policies, making EM debt attractive. She warns that passive EM equities are highly correlated with the AI trade, so debt offers a better diversification vehicle.
MED
10:36
Jul 08
Jul 08
Buy emerging market debt
For those wanting exposure to emerging markets, emerging market debt is also attractive as a diversification away from concentrated tech exposure; previously they profited from long EM commodity exporter debt versus importers.
LOW
22:24
Jul 06
Jul 06
Go long emerging market debt
Core inflation is decelerating; real rates at generational highs provide a tether, and there are great opportunities in emerging markets today as disparate locations trade on incremental inputs.
LOW
14:39
Jul 02
Jul 02
Long EM debt for yield pickup
Emerging markets debt offers attractive yield opportunities as part of a global income strategy.
MED
17:16
Jun 09
Jun 09
EM debt higher yields strong fundamentals
Emerging market debt still offers much higher yields and a more positive fundamental backdrop than developed-market bonds. EM bond markets have been making new highs while rich-country bonds make new lows, and this trend should continue.
MED
04:57
May 28
May 28
EM dollar debt outperformance sustainable
Emerging-market dollar-denominated debt has outperformed similarly rated US credit over the long term and benefits from fundamental improvements, positive technicals (limited net supply), and strong demand. The asset class should continue to show resilience even during stress periods.
MED
15:01
May 22
May 22
Long emerging markets for diversification.
Emerging markets, including EM debt, offer a margin of safety and global diversification tailwind given a strong US economy. The firm likes emerging markets quite a bit.
MED
14:28
Apr 23
Apr 23
EM debt offers broadening opportunity.
Clients are also focused on emerging market debt as part of the broadening opportunity in global markets.
MED
03:54
Apr 23
Apr 23
EM debt offers opportunities.
Emerging market debt is another area of opportunity for investors seeking diversification and yield in a broadening market environment.
LOW
20:39
Apr 21
Apr 21
EM energy exporters outperform importers.
Within Emerging Markets, energy exporters should outperform energy importers in an $80 oil price environment, which is a sweet spot for EM sovereign dollar bonds. Differentiation will pick up, and policy space varies significantly among importers.
MED
07:55
Apr 14
Apr 14
Asian credit markets are attractive.
The credit market in Asia offers attractive opportunities due to supply-demand imbalances, with high demand for flexible capital from growing businesses and less developed banking sectors, leading to potential mispricings, especially in Southeast Asia and Australia.
HIGH
22:20
Apr 10
Apr 10
Speaker stated they are "underweight" and "a bit more cautious in those areas with higher spread volatility like high-yield [and] emerging markets." The current environment of military conflict and macroeconomic uncertainty magnifies spread volatility, making lower-quality credit segments particularly risky. Avoid these asset classes due to elevated volatility and unpredictability driven by geopolitical events. A rapid and sustained de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, which would reduce market volatility and credit spreads.
11:45
Apr 09
Apr 09
A pause in US-Iran hostilities is increasing risk appetite.
A pause in US-Iran hostilities is increasing risk appetite, leading to demand for new issuance from riskier sovereign borrowers like Congo, signaling a bullish environment for emerging market debt.
MED
13:01
Apr 07
Apr 07
The speaker states EM debt indices have "done more damage to emerging market investors than any idiosyncratic event," citing examples where they forced ownership of Argentina pre-default (18% weight) and Russia/Ukraine pre-war. Index construction (often market-cap weighted) over-allocates to the most indebted or largest debt stock countries, conflating size with risk. Mandating benchmark neutrality or low tracking error forces low-conviction ownership and creates vintage risk. AVOID because a passive, index-replicating approach is a "very low conviction approach" that systematically exposes investors to concentrated, predictable risks and misses the alpha from active underwriting and avoidance. An index-led rally in a heavily weighted, risky country could cause short-term underperformance for an active manager avoiding it.
00:47
Apr 02
Apr 02
Long Malaysian bonds (via EMB) as the Iran conflict-driven rise in oil prices improves.
Long Malaysian bonds (via EMB) as the Iran conflict-driven rise in oil prices improves the fiscal and economic outlook for the energy-exporting country, attracting capital flows.
MED
11:04
Mar 30
Mar 30
Wei Li states BlackRock has a "modest overweight" in US dollar-denominated emerging market debt, citing the structural improvement in the quality of the asset class and favorable exposure to Latin America and energy exporters/importers. Despite being caught in recent market reversals (dollar strength, curve shifts), the underlying credit quality improvement provides a longer-term positive basis. The asset class is seen as positively positioned for the longer term, warranting attention, though it may face near-term volatility from broader market flows. A severe, prolonged risk-off event or a significant further strengthening of the US dollar.
16:22
Mar 27
Mar 27
Lupin said duration is going to be hard, and being long duration is a difficult trade due to stagflationary impacts from the oil price shock, with EM central banks likely needing to hike rates. In a stagflationary environment, inflation shocks may force EM central banks to hike more than priced in to anchor second-round effects, leading to bond price declines. AVOID long duration positions in EM bonds as the risk-reward is unfavorable. The Middle East war ends quickly, reducing inflationary pressures and allowing central banks to pause or cut rates.
20:44
Mar 25
Mar 25
Kate Moore trimmed emerging market debt from the portfolio in response to the lack of price action or yield move during the crisis. The muted response indicates that EMD may not provide the desired resilience or yield advantage in the current risk environment. Therefore, she is avoiding emerging market debt (AVOID) due to poor risk-reward and insufficient hedging benefits. If global growth accelerates or yields decline, EMD could become attractive again.
About EMB Analyst Coverage
Buzzberg tracks EMB (iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF) across 9 sources. 23 bullish vs 1 bearish calls from 25 analysts. Sentiment: predominantly bullish (67%). 33 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days: 3 bullish, 1 watch. Latest voices: Marvin Barth, Jeff Mueller, Wei Li.