Simon Waever
Head of Research, Paradigm
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Apr 21
$62.67
+2.8%
EM has built resilience through credible policy responses to recent shocks, and the year as a whole should be good for EM assets assuming a trajectory of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, with external imbalances contained and mechanisms to deal with energy price shocks.
Macro
Long
Apr 21
$96.13
-0.8%
Within Emerging Markets, energy exporters should outperform energy importers in an $80 oil price environment, which is a sweet spot for EM sovereign dollar bonds. Differentiation will pick up, and policy space varies significantly among importers.
Macro
Long
Apr 21
$37.21
-10.9%
Latin America is a key winner, reinforced by the Iran conflict, because the region is physically removed from the Middle East, has many large commodity exporters, and benefits from political realignment with the US. Specific positive catalysts include Argentina's structural reforms and FX purchases, and Venezuela's re-engagement with the IMF.
Macro
Short
Apr 21
$71.07
-24.8%
The US dollar may weaken quickly if the market prices in more Fed cuts, particularly in a scenario of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, leading to a return to trading dollar weakness.
Macro
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