#163
Alpha Score 78.5
Brad Setser
Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Feb 13
$38.37
-7.6%
The author presents a high-conviction, data-driven case that China's current account surplus is massively understated and growing, implying its export-driven economy is far stronger than official data suggests.
The author presents a high-conviction, data-driven case that China's current account surplus is massively understated and growing, implying its export-driven economy is far stronger than official data suggests.
Macro
Long
Feb 13
$26.94
+3.4%
The lagged effects of the dollar's strength will continue to act as a headwind for trade, implying the strong dollar trend and its consequences are not yet fully priced in.
The lagged effects of the dollar's strength will continue to act as a headwind for trade, implying the strong dollar trend and its consequences are not yet fully priced in.
Macro
Long
Feb 17
$12.49
-11.6%
The popular "China de-dollarization" narrative is flawed because China's forward adjusted settlements in USD remain enormous (~$1.2T/year), indicating continued structural reliance on the dollar.
The popular "China de-dollarization" narrative is flawed because China's forward adjusted settlements in USD remain enormous (~$1.2T/year), indicating continued structural reliance on the dollar.
Other
Long
Mar 18
$121.55
+16.1%
A physical oil shortage and price spike in Asia will inevitably lead to higher global oil prices, assuming the Strait of Hormuz shipping situation is not resolved.
A physical oil shortage and price spike in Asia will inevitably lead to higher global oil prices, assuming the Strait of Hormuz shipping situation is not resolved.
Energy
Long
Feb 19
$406.80
+54.0%
The author forecasts that strong and rising demand for AI/data center hardware will be a primary driver of the US trade balance, implying continued fundamental strength for the semiconductor sector.
The author forecasts that strong and rising demand for AI/data center hardware will be a primary driver of the US trade balance, implying continued fundamental strength for the semiconductor sector.
AI/Semi
Long
Feb 11
$88.06
-3.1%
China's massive foreign exchange inflows are creating a structural, forced bid for US Treasuries, as it's the only market deep enough to absorb the capital needed to manage the CNY.
China's massive foreign exchange inflows are creating a structural, forced bid for US Treasuries, as it's the only market deep enough to absorb the capital needed to manage the CNY.
Macro
Long
Mar 20
$47.81
+0.5%
The author believes the market is over-pricing future interest rate hikes in Europe and the UK, suggesting a contrarian trade where those hikes fail to materialize, which would be bullish for bond prices.
The author believes the market is over-pricing future interest rate hikes in Europe and the UK, suggesting a contrarian trade where those hikes fail to materialize, which would be bullish for bond prices.
Macro
Long
Mar 18
$31.90
+11.3%
Weak domestic auto sales in China will force manufacturers to maintain or increase their export volumes, supporting their growth relative to global competitors.
Weak domestic auto sales in China will force manufacturers to maintain or increase their export volumes, supporting their growth relative to global competitors.
Other
Long
Mar 17
$57.96
-1.1%
The author argues that Japan has the capacity and incentive to intervene in currency markets by selling its USD reserves to strengthen the Yen, countering its recent weakness.
The author argues that Japan has the capacity and incentive to intervene in currency markets by selling its USD reserves to strengthen the Yen, countering its recent weakness.
Macro
Long
Mar 16
$68.59
+11.3%
The US tax code continues to incentivize American multinational corporations to maintain operations in low-tax jurisdictions like Ireland, providing a durable tailwind for the Irish economy.
The US tax code continues to incentivize American multinational corporations to maintain operations in low-tax jurisdictions like Ireland, providing a durable tailwind for the Irish economy.
Macro
Long
Mar 13
$10.65
-1.7%
The bearish argument against European automakers is weak because they can leverage their existing European supply chains for exports, maintaining competitiveness.
The bearish argument against European automakers is weak because they can leverage their existing European supply chains for exports, maintaining competitiveness.
Consumer
Long
Mar 12
$185.28
+15.9%
A change in Nvidia's IP location to the US will force its Singapore tax HQ to send large royalty payments back home, which should boost reported US profits in 2025.
A change in Nvidia's IP location to the US will force its Singapore tax HQ to send large royalty payments back home, which should boost reported US profits in 2025.
AI/Semi
Long
Mar 01
$75.67
+42.7%
The author forecasts a strong February trade surplus for Taiwan, suggesting the number could surprise to the upside and be bullish for the Taiwanese economy.
The author forecasts a strong February trade surplus for Taiwan, suggesting the number could surprise to the upside and be bullish for the Taiwanese economy.
Macro
Long
Feb 27
$151.37
+39.3%
Korea's trade surplus is expected to expand throughout 2026, driven by high semiconductor prices, which should be a fundamental tailwind for the export-heavy Korean equity market.
Korea's trade surplus is expected to expand throughout 2026, driven by high semiconductor prices, which should be a fundamental tailwind for the export-heavy Korean equity market.
Macro
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