Brad_Setser 5.0 194 ideas

After 1 day
46%winrate
-0.2% avg
54W / 64L · 118/171 ideas
After 1 week
52%winrate
-0.3% avg
59W / 54L · 113/173 ideas
After 1 month
44%winrate
-0.3% avg
37W / 47L · 84/173 ideas
37 winning  /  47 losing  ·  84 positions (30d)
Net: -0.3%
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
USO LONG $124.57 Apr 12
TUR SHORT $42.10 Apr 12
JPY LONG $34.06 Apr 10
USD LONG $62.07 Apr 10
SMH LONG $438.89 Apr 10
USO SHORT $121.90 Apr 08
TLT SHORT $87.20 Apr 08
CNY LONG — — Apr 08
USD LONG $56.11 Apr 08
FXI LONG $35.44 Apr 07
FXI LONG $35.46 Apr 07
GLD SHORT $429.41 Apr 03
USO SHORT $124.52 Apr 01
KRW LONG — — Mar 31
USO LONG $125.99 Mar 27
BNDX LONG $47.81 Mar 20
UUP SHORT $27.66 Mar 20
XLI SHORT $162.56 Mar 20
SPY SHORT $660.91 Mar 19
FXI SHORT $36.42 Mar 18
USO LONG $120.92 Mar 18
FXE SHORT $106.23 Mar 18
KARS LONG $31.90 Mar 18
CNY SHORT — — Mar 18
EUR SHORT — — Mar 18
FXI LONG $36.59 Mar 18
USO LONG $121.40 Mar 18
USO LONG $121.55 Mar 18
TLT SHORT $87.37 Mar 18
UUP SHORT $27.78 Mar 18
By sector
ETF
93 ideas +0.1%
currency
76 ideas +1.2%
Stock
20 ideas -6.1%
sector
4 ideas
Commodity
1 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
FXI 32 ideas
59% W +1.2%
CNY 24 ideas
— —
USD 17 ideas
42% W +1.2%
UUP 16 ideas
14% W -1.4%
JPY 13 ideas
71% W +1.0%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
USD SHORT +22.7%
The Taiwanese Dollar is fundamentally undervalued and should strengthen against the USD, with a potential catalyst being...
Feb 26
CNH SHORT +15.4%
The author asserts that a surge in settlement data is clear evidence of the PBOC intervening to suppress the RMB's rate ...
Feb 27
EWG SHORT +10.4%
The German economy faces a structural headwind as its auto industry loses market share and faces direct, scaled competit...
Feb 19
Worst calls
EWY LONG -23.1%
Korea's trade surplus is expected to expand throughout 2026, driven by high semiconductor prices, which should be a fund...
Feb 27
CNH LONG -20.0%
The author argues that after adjusting for Balance of Payments data discrepancies, China's currency is significantly und...
Feb 20
USD LONG -19.5%
The author has high conviction ("unusual level of confidence" in a follow-up tweet) that China is conducting massive, su...
Feb 24
Buy oil (USO) expecting a price reversal higher due to a specific catalyst: the failure of diplomatic talks, a US blockade on Iranian exports, and resulting near-term physical supply tightness.
USO MED Apr 12, 17:49
"well probably reverses this week given the breakdown in talks/ US blockade on Iranian oil/ likely tightness in spot oil?"
𝕏 @brad_setser ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 12, 2026 at 17:49
𝕏 @brad_setser
Short the Turkish Lira (via ETF TUR) as the central bank is depleting its core reserves (FX securities and gold) to fund interventions, revealing underlying currency weakness and unsustainable policy.
TUR HIGH Apr 12, 17:37
"Turkey sold a ton of fx (essentially draining its securities portfolio) and sold/ swapped gold to generate even more fx to fund its massive March intervention ..."
𝕏 @brad_setser ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 12, 2026 at 17:37
𝕏 @brad_setser
Expect the Japanese Yen to appreciate against the USD as past interventions have set a floor and will eventually lead to a reversal that punishes USD buyers, though the catalyst requires more than just Ministry of Finance action.
JPY USD MED Apr 10, 21:25
"and someday the yen will appreciate and the dollar dip buyers will lose out, but it will take more than the MOF coming in to defend certain levels"
𝕏 @brad_setser ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 10, 2026 at 21:25
𝕏 @brad_setser
Surge in Asian chip exports signals strong underlying demand and market strength for the semiconductor sector.
SMH HIGH Apr 10, 14:59
"Rather large increase in the trade surplus of a couple of important Asian economies in the first quarter... mostly surging chip exports"
𝕏 @brad_setser ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 10, 2026 at 14:59
𝕏 @brad_setser
The author argues that the GCC's role as the low-cost, high-capacity oil producer will act as a persistent cap on oil prices.
USO HIGH Apr 08, 16:21
"markets seek out the lowest cost producer, and for oil that is still the GCC countries ... efficiency gains and a willingness to add capacity serves as a deterrent on prices."
𝕏 @brad_setser ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 08, 2026 at 16:21
𝕏 @brad_setser
The US's reliance on continued fiscal deficits to fund global demand creates Treasury market sustainability risk, implying higher yields.
TLT HIGH Apr 08, 14:59
"Correctly measured (and even incorrectly measured in th 2025 data) the global surplus is now uniquely concentrated in East Asia, and dangerously so -- with straints on the rest of the world economy"
𝕏 @brad_setser ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 08, 2026 at 14:59
𝕏 @brad_setser
China's banking system is structurally increasing its net long dollar position, which should provide underlying support for the USD against the CNY.
CNY USD HIGH Apr 08, 00:49
"External dollar assets up, external dollar liabilities down -- net long dollars way up."
𝕏 @brad_setser ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 08, 2026 at 00:49
𝕏 @brad_setser
The author posits that China's policy mix will lead to a much larger current account surplus, which should benefit export-oriented Chinese equities.
FXI MED Apr 07, 21:00
"monetary easing and fiscal tightening into a property downturn = big increase in the CA surplus"
𝕏 @brad_setser ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 07, 2026 at 21:00
𝕏 @brad_setser
China's macro industrial policies are driving a sustained export boom and expanding trade surplus, which should be positive for Chinese equities.
FXI MED Apr 07, 20:49
"put a bit differently, Chinese 'macro' industrial policies... get an export boom (vehicle exports are already at 10m units a year in the quarterly data, and rising fast!) & a big trade surplus"
𝕏 @brad_setser ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 07, 2026 at 20:49
𝕏 @brad_setser
Expectation of increased official gold sales will likely exert downward pressure on gold prices, creating a short opportunity.
GLD HIGH Apr 03, 16:41
"yes, i would expect more gold sales absent a shift in policy --"
𝕏 @brad_setser ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 03, 2026 at 16:41
𝕏 @brad_setser
A potential increase in Saudi oil exports via the East-West pipeline could pressure global oil prices, particularly Brent, as more supply is directed to Asia.
USO HIGH Apr 01, 15:39
"if the east west pipeline keeps exports up and Saudi oil sells at a premium to Brent (closer to fuel starved Asia) the Saudi current account may end in rough balance (but lots of ifs ...)"
𝕏 @brad_setser ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 01, 2026 at 15:39
𝕏 @brad_setser
The author argues that the Korean won is fundamentally undervalued and suggests the National Pension Service (NPS) should halt its foreign asset purchases as a policy step to support the currency.
KRW MED Mar 31, 16:31
"the way to stop the capital flight is to stop the move; fundamentals don't warrant this level of weakness has the NPS suspended its foreign asset purchases? would be an obvious step to support the won (and Korean households)"
𝕏 @brad_setser ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 31, 2026 at 16:31
𝕏 @brad_setser
The forward oil curve is mispriced to the downside as it fails to price in the persistent supply risk from a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian oil shipments.
USO MED Mar 27, 21:13
"my assumption is that the current curve doesn't reflect the likely outcome if the strait remains closed to non Iranian barrels"
𝕏 @brad_setser ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 27, 2026 at 21:13
𝕏 @brad_setser
Brad_Setser | 194 trade ideas tracked | FXI, CNY, USD, UUP, JPY | Twitter | Buzzberg