CN CNH CNH INDUSTRIAL N.V. Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Macquarie and Baird raise price targets on multiple industrial and financial names while BMO, Wells Fargo, Mizuho, and HSBC downgrade utilities and other stocks with reduced targets.

China's onshore yuan strengthens to 6.7212 per dollar, its strongest level since February 2, 2023.

CNH Industrial says the farm machinery sector is primed for a rebound in 2027 as aging fleets prompt growers to upgrade equipment.

Premarket movers show mixed results with Atkore surging on acquisition news, Bristol-Myers gaining on takeover interest, and several stocks falling on earnings misses or guidance cuts.

The Chinese renminbi has been performing well and will continue to strengthen gradually due to FX policy guidance from China and corporate conversion of large FX stocks into local currency. The currency regime is no longer driven by interest-rate differentials.

Chinese yuan, Singapore dollar and Hong Kong dollar are the best places to be for dollar‑neutral positioning. China structurally supports a stronger yuan, the MAS maintains an appreciation bias for the SGD, and the HKD peg adds stability. These currencies can perform well regardless of the overall dollar trend.

The Chinese Yuan (CNH) is facing downward pressure because Chinese companies are unprofitable, leading investors to seek better returns in markets like Taiwan, Japan, and Korea.

Expects modest further appreciation of 1-2% in the Chinese currency, as exports remain strong and the government doesn't want too much strengthening, but underlying momentum supports.

China's record trade surplus and lagging reserve growth indicate money held overseas. Recent regulatory crackdown on illegal cross-border flows is forcing funds back, supporting yuan appreciation. Expect CNH to strengthen to at least 6.5 per dollar and beyond.

The PBOC is likely to engineer measured RMB appreciation ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, especially given a softer dollar. The currency could trade in a 6.72-6.82 range, with potential upside after the meeting. The policy direction supports a stronger renminbi.

The Chinese renminbi is the easiest trade: both the US and China want a higher RMB, it is the most undervalued major currency, and it is already appreciating; a positive US-China summit outcome will likely accelerate this trend.

The Chinese renminbi is the most undervalued currency in the world and has the strongest momentum. Both the US and China want a higher RMB, and it is already rising. This is the easiest trade because of alignment of incentives and massive valuation tailwinds, and it will likely continue to rise 5-8% per year for the next few years, especially if the Trump-Xi summits go well.

Long equipment finance, rental, and dealer companies as healthy credit, low used inventory, and strong lease conversions support equipment demand.

Long CNH (or Chinese assets) as state bank foreign reserve accumulation, a key supportive flow for the yuan, is expected to resume in the 2025-26 period after a pause.

The author believes China's currency is unsustainably managed and too weak relative to its balance of payments, implying a future revaluation or policy failure.

The author asserts that a surge in settlement data is clear evidence of the PBOC intervening to suppress the RMB's rate of appreciation, implying the currency's upside is actively managed and limited.

The PBoC is removing a key tool used to support the yuan, making it cheaper to hedge or speculate on CNH weakness and signaling a tolerance for depreciation.

The PBoC is making it cheaper for institutions to sell the Yuan, signaling an official tolerance for or desire to see further currency weakness, which is bullish for USD/CNH.

A policy signal from China indicating tolerance for a stronger yuan suggests the currency's recent appreciation against the dollar is likely to continue.

The author implies large-scale Chinese FX intervention is artificially suppressing the renminbi, which will likely provoke a G-7 policy response forcing the currency to appreciate.

The author argues the Chinese Yuan is significantly undervalued against its trading partners and expects this imbalance to be addressed, implying future appreciation.

The author has high conviction ("unusual level of confidence" in a follow-up tweet) that China is conducting massive, sustained FX intervention to suppress the Yuan's strength, creating a strong headwind for CNY appreciation (tailwind for USD/CNH).

The author argues that after adjusting for Balance of Payments data discrepancies, China's currency is significantly undervalued by 27-35%, implying it should appreciate.

The popular "China de-dollarization" narrative is flawed because China's forward adjusted settlements in USD remain enormous (~$1.2T/year), indicating continued structural reliance on the dollar.

1. THE FACT: "When China bullies trading partners, it’s a benevolent partnership based on mutual respect and economic ascendancy. #ChinaAlwaysWins" 2. THE BRIDGE: The tweet suggests China's economic ascendancy and its ability to frame its actions as benevolent partnerships, implying a strengthening of its economic position relative to the US. This could lead to a stronger CNY/CNH. 3. THE VERDICT: Long CNY/CNH due to China's perceived economic ascendancy and strategic advantage in global trade relations.