CNH CNH INDUSTRIAL N.V. : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

The author believes China's currency is unsustainably managed and too weak relative to its balance of payments, implying a future revaluation or policy failure.

The author asserts that a surge in settlement data is clear evidence of the PBOC intervening to suppress the RMB's rate of appreciation, implying the currency's upside is actively managed and limited.

The PBoC is removing a key tool used to support the yuan, making it cheaper to hedge or speculate on CNH weakness and signaling a tolerance for depreciation.

The PBoC is making it cheaper for institutions to sell the Yuan, signaling an official tolerance for or desire to see further currency weakness, which is bullish for USD/CNH.

A policy signal from China indicating tolerance for a stronger yuan suggests the currency's recent appreciation against the dollar is likely to continue.

The author implies large-scale Chinese FX intervention is artificially suppressing the renminbi, which will likely provoke a G-7 policy response forcing the currency to appreciate.

The author argues the Chinese Yuan is significantly undervalued against its trading partners and expects this imbalance to be addressed, implying future appreciation.

The author has high conviction ("unusual level of confidence" in a follow-up tweet) that China is conducting massive, sustained FX intervention to suppress the Yuan's strength, creating a strong headwind for CNY appreciation (tailwind for USD/CNH).

The author argues that after adjusting for Balance of Payments data discrepancies, China's currency is significantly undervalued by 27-35%, implying it should appreciate.

The popular "China de-dollarization" narrative is flawed because China's forward adjusted settlements in USD remain enormous (~$1.2T/year), indicating continued structural reliance on the dollar.

1. THE FACT: "When China bullies trading partners, it’s a benevolent partnership based on mutual respect and economic ascendancy. #ChinaAlwaysWins" 2. THE BRIDGE: The tweet suggests China's economic ascendancy and its ability to frame its actions as benevolent partnerships, implying a strengthening of its economic position relative to the US. This could lead to a stronger CNY/CNH. 3. THE VERDICT: Long CNY/CNH due to China's perceived economic ascendancy and strategic advantage in global trade relations.