#671 Alpha Score 10.9

u/raytoei

Reddit r/ValueInvesting
· tracked since Mar 2026
671
BUZZBERG Alpha Score combines three things: realized average return, confidence in the sample size, idea volume, and speaker reputation. Speakers with only a few calls are pulled closer to the platform average; speakers with many evaluated ideas keep more of their own return. Reputation only boosts: 5.0 or lower is neutral, while scores above 5 add weight. Scores are normalized to 0-100; 100 is best. Read the FAQ
Alpha Score 10.9
Calls 9 11 Posts tracked · 0.1/day
Calls
7d 1
30d 7
90d 9
Best Calls
GOOGL short +6.3%
MSFT long +2.1%
RDDT long +1.2%
Worst Calls
BSX long -17.5%
AMD short -16.0%
SPOT short -12.3%
Most Mentioned
AMD ×2
AAPL ×1
GOOGL ×1
Recent Calls
MU short 4 days ago
LULU short 1 week ago
BSX long 1 week ago
Win Rate 56% Long 4 Short 5
Win Rate
7d 38%
30d 50%
90d
Average Return -5.0% Long Return -3.4% Short Return -6.2%
Average Return
7d -3.0%
30d -4.2%
90d
Result
Result
Sort
Theme Stance
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Short
May 23
$467.51
-16.0%
Advanced Micro Devices will also leave the Russell 1000 Value Index and become pure growth. Similar forced selling dynamic as GOOGL; value funds must reduce or eliminate exposure. Short-term bearish due to passive rebalance outflows before the June 29 deadline. Strong secular AI demand could attract growth fund buying that offsets selling; AMD is volatile.
Advanced Micro Devices will also leave the Russell 1000 Value Index and become pure growth. Similar forced selling dynamic as GOOGL; value funds must reduce or eliminate exposure. Short-term bearish due to passive rebalance outflows before the June 29 deadline. Strong secular AI demand could attract growth fund buying that offsets selling; AMD is volatile.
AI/Semi
Short
May 30
$971.00
-9.7%
Micron is up 225% YTD (as of article date), a “parabolic” move in a cyclical commodity semiconductor stock with no commensurate earnings growth. Such extreme price action often precedes sharp reversals; the article explicitly calls out this “flashing yellow light” and the overall chip mania. Short Micron as a bet that the bubble in DRAM/memory names will deflate, returning to more normal valuation multiples. AI-driven demand for HBM could sustain revenue growth; short squeezes in a still-hyped sector may delay the pullback.
Micron is up 225% YTD (as of article date), a “parabolic” move in a cyclical commodity semiconductor stock with no commensurate earnings growth. Such extreme price action often precedes sharp reversals; the article explicitly calls out this “flashing yellow light” and the overall chip mania. Short Micron as a bet that the bubble in DRAM/memory names will deflate, returning to more normal valuation multiples. AI-driven demand for HBM could sustain revenue growth; short squeezes in a still-hyped sector may delay the pullback.
AI/Semi
Short
May 24
$127.18
+0.9%
Consumer spending at LULU declined in Q1, worsened in May; analysts cite incoherent designs and lower-quality fabric as key reasons for falling interest. Continued sales weakness and unresolved board/CEO issues will pressure the stock further, likely extending the downtrend. Short LULU on expectation of further earnings misses and negative momentum until a clear turnaround catalyst appears. A sudden CEO-led restructuring or buyout could reverse sentiment; seasonal athletic wear demand may surprise.
Consumer spending at LULU declined in Q1, worsened in May; analysts cite incoherent designs and lower-quality fabric as key reasons for falling interest. Continued sales weakness and unresolved board/CEO issues will pressure the stock further, likely extending the downtrend. Short LULU on expectation of further earnings misses and negative momentum until a clear turnaround catalyst appears. A sudden CEO-led restructuring or buyout could reverse sentiment; seasonal athletic wear demand may surprise.
Consumer
Long
May 23
$57.78
-17.5%
BSX trades at ~$57 vs Morningstar fair value of $81 and CFRA $67.63; EPS CAGR estimated 11-16% over next 5 years; CEO Mahoney has driven 16% EPS growth since 2010 with 85% accuracy. Valuation gap (discount to fair value) combined with strong product moats (PFA, WATCHMAN) and a proven management turnaround creates a buying opportunity. BSX is undervalued relative to its historical and projected earnings power, with catalysts from new product cycles and a long-tenured CEO. Competition from JNJ and Medtronic eroding PFA market share (projected drop from 58% to 48% by 2026); execution hiccups and recent guidance down; sector becoming capex-heavy and binary.
BSX trades at ~$57 vs Morningstar fair value of $81 and CFRA $67.63; EPS CAGR estimated 11-16% over next 5 years; CEO Mahoney has driven 16% EPS growth since 2010 with 85% accuracy. Valuation gap (discount to fair value) combined with strong product moats (PFA, WATCHMAN) and a proven management turnaround creates a buying opportunity. BSX is undervalued relative to its historical and projected earnings power, with catalysts from new product cycles and a long-tenured CEO. Competition from JNJ and Medtronic eroding PFA market share (projected drop from 58% to 48% by 2026); execution hiccups and recent guidance down; sector becoming capex-heavy and binary.
Healthcare
Long
May 23
$308.82
+0.5%
Apple will join the Russell 1000 Value Index, moving from pure growth to a blend of value and growth. Value-focused ETFs will be forced buyers of AAPL, driving incremental demand. Short-term bullish due to passive inflows from value indexes. Already large position in many funds; the effect may be diluted; growth funds may sell slightly, but net likely positive.
Apple will join the Russell 1000 Value Index, moving from pure growth to a blend of value and growth. Value-focused ETFs will be forced buyers of AAPL, driving incremental demand. Short-term bullish due to passive inflows from value indexes. Already large position in many funds; the effect may be diluted; growth funds may sell slightly, but net likely positive.
Consumer
Short
May 23
$382.97
+6.3%
Alphabet will be removed from the Russell 1000 Value Index, meaning value-focused ETFs must sell GOOGL shares. Index rebalancing creates forced selling pressure from passive funds, often leading to short-term price dislocations. Sell into the expected selling wave before the final reconstitution on June 29. The market may have already priced in the change; short squeeze if buyers step in; actual net flows could be offset by growth index additions.
Alphabet will be removed from the Russell 1000 Value Index, meaning value-focused ETFs must sell GOOGL shares. Index rebalancing creates forced selling pressure from passive funds, often leading to short-term price dislocations. Sell into the expected selling wave before the final reconstitution on June 29. The market may have already priced in the change; short squeeze if buyers step in; actual net flows could be offset by growth index additions.
AI/Semi
Long
May 23
$418.57
+2.1%
Microsoft, like Apple, will be reclassified as part growth and part value, entering the Russell 1000 Value Index. Inflows from value index funds create a tailwind, similar to AAPL. Short-term bullish on index reconstitution buying. Microsoft’s size limits percentage impact; offsetting selling from growth funds possible.
Microsoft, like Apple, will be reclassified as part growth and part value, entering the Russell 1000 Value Index. Inflows from value index funds create a tailwind, similar to AAPL. Short-term bullish on index reconstitution buying. Microsoft’s size limits percentage impact; offsetting selling from growth funds possible.
AI/Semi
Long
May 01
$167.43
+1.2%
RDDT reported adjusted EPS of $1.01 (vs. $0.57 est.), revenue $663M (vs. $608M est.), and Q2 guidance above consensus; ad revenue grew 74% YoY. The stock has fallen 36% YTD into “value territory,” but the earnings beat and positive guidance may reverse the downtrend, especially with the author’s multiple buys at lower levels. A beaten-down growth stock with a strong quarterly surprise could see a short-term price recovery; the author is betting on mean reversion and underlying business momentum. Slowing DAU growth (17% YoY vs 30.7% prior), AI competition replacing user-generated content, and weak market sentiment for social media names.
RDDT reported adjusted EPS of $1.01 (vs. $0.57 est.), revenue $663M (vs. $608M est.), and Q2 guidance above consensus; ad revenue grew 74% YoY. The stock has fallen 36% YTD into “value territory,” but the earnings beat and positive guidance may reverse the downtrend, especially with the author’s multiple buys at lower levels. A beaten-down growth stock with a strong quarterly surprise could see a short-term price recovery; the author is betting on mean reversion and underlying business momentum. Slowing DAU growth (17% YoY vs 30.7% prior), AI competition replacing user-generated content, and weak market sentiment for social media names.
Consumer
Short
Apr 29
$434.20
-12.3%
Subscriber guidance missed by 1M, and Q2 operating income forecast of €630M was below €680M consensus. Stock trades at 33x forward earnings – high multiple leaves little room for growth disappointments. Price hikes are slowing subscriber additions, and rising costs pressure margins; near-term momentum is negative. Earnings beat (€3.45 vs €2.95) shows profitability improving; Deutsche Bank analyst maintains Buy with $675 target; AI music strategy could unlock future growth.
Subscriber guidance missed by 1M, and Q2 operating income forecast of €630M was below €680M consensus. Stock trades at 33x forward earnings – high multiple leaves little room for growth disappointments. Price hikes are slowing subscriber additions, and rising costs pressure margins; near-term momentum is negative. Earnings beat (€3.45 vs €2.95) shows profitability improving; Deutsche Bank analyst maintains Buy with $675 target; AI music strategy could unlock future growth.
Consumer
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