Hyperscaler capex is forecast to grow 60% year-over-year, and monetization of AI is showing positive signs with annual revenue run rate increasing to $30 billion. The U.S. has an edge in AI due to relative insulation from energy disruptions.
Selective in Chinese equities, favor certain sectors.
While broadly neutral on Chinese equities, they favor specific sectors including AI, tech, automation, green energy, and digital trade due to selective opportunities.
KWEB
ROBO
ICLN
DIGITAL TRADE THEME
HIGHBloomberg MarketsApr 16, 04:06
Downgraded Japanese equities due to energy dependence.
Downgraded Japanese equities from overweight to neutral due to greater energy dependence, making them less attractive for re-risking compared to U.S. and EM equities.
Upgraded U.S. equities from neutral to overweight due to economic incentives for a cease-fire in Iran and strong earnings upgrades with positive revision momentum, making valuations attractive.
Wei Li states the Middle East conflict is accelerating the theme of "energy security" and "energy independence," which is an "all of the above" approach including traditional and alternative sources. She notes 60% of the global population lives in natural gas-importing countries facing disrupted supply. Geopolitical instability creates a "supercharged environment" for investing in energy security. This theme was already in place due to factors like AI data center power demand and is now being accelerated. The sector should grow in significance within portfolios. This is a structural, long-term investment opportunity catalyzed by current events. A rapid and sustained resolution to Middle East tensions reducing the perceived urgency for energy independence.
Wei Li explicitly names "defense" as a key investment theme being "catapulted" and accelerated by events in the Middle East. Geopolitical conflict increases focus on and spending for national and regional defense, supporting the sector's fundamentals. This is a structural theme with positive demand drivers, making it an attractive area for investment. A sudden and lasting peace that drastically reduces defense spending priorities.
Wei Li explicitly names "infrastructure" as a key investment theme linked to greater focus on "supply chain resilience" and "reshoring," which is being accelerated by current events. Geopolitical and trade disruptions create demand for more resilient infrastructure, both for rebuilding and for securing supply chains. Many infrastructure companies are global, benefiting from the theme regardless of location. This is a structural theme with reinforcing near and medium-term demand drivers. A significant global economic downturn leading to widespread cancellation or deferral of infrastructure projects.