Trump Vows Iran Pressure With Naval Blockade, Yen Resumes Rally | The Opening Trade 5/1/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 01, 2026 at 12:08  |  1:36:13  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Bruce Richards — CEO, Chairman, and Founder, Marathon Asset Management
Paul Jackson — Head of Crypto, Blockworks

Summary

The video covers the ongoing Iran naval blockade and its impact on oil, aluminum, and currency markets. Yen intervention and central bank rate hike expectations (ECB/BOE) are key themes, alongside strong tech earnings from Apple and a tariff relief for Scotch whisky. Private credit and software investing are also discussed.

  • President Trump vows to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, squeezing Iran's oil exports.
  • Japan intervenes to support the yen, but the weakness is expected to persist until a BOJ rate hike.
  • Aluminum faces a record supply deficit due to smelter shutdowns, with prices targeting $4,000/mt.
  • ECB signals a likely June rate hike, seen by some as a policy mistake given oil-driven inflation.
  • Apple reports strong earnings and iPhone demand, but warns of rising memory chip costs.
  • Diageo shares rise after Trump promises to remove tariffs on Scotch whisky.
  • Private credit defaults hit a record in Q1, but the next vintage is viewed as attractive.
  • Software stocks (Salesforce, ServiceNow, Intuit, Adobe) are called undervalued with AI conversion upside.
Trade Ideas
Greg Shearer 25:55
Aluminum deficit largest since 2000
The aluminum market faces the largest relative supply deficit since 2000, driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which has taken about 4% of global supply offline for at least a year. Prices are expected to move up towards $4,000 per metric tonne in the near term and stay elevated for a few months until demand destruction kicks in.
JJU HIGH
Paul Jackson Head of Crypto, Blockworks 37:55
Yen weakness to continue until BOJ hike
The yen intervention is a time-buying strategy and will not reverse the underlying weakness. The yen will continue to weaken until the Bank of Japan delivers a rate hike, which is likely in June but not yet certain. Speculators should watch for further intervention, especially ahead of the Golden Week holiday.
USD/JPY MED
Bruce Richards CEO, Chairman, and Founder, Marathon Asset Management 87:40
Software stocks cheap with AI upside
Select software companies like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Intuit, and Adobe are trading at roughly 8 times forward earnings, which is very cheap given their high margins and strong earnings. These companies have significant upside potential as they transition to AI-first software platforms, though not all will succeed.
CRM NOW INTU ADBE HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published May 01, 2026, features Greg Shearer, Paul Jackson, Bruce Richards discussing JJU, USD/JPY, CRM, NOW, INTU, ADBE. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Greg Shearer, Paul Jackson, Bruce Richards  · Tickers: JJU, USD/JPY, CRM, NOW, INTU, ADBE