Garfield Reynolds

Markets are drastically underestimating the lingering inflation impact from the war. Refined fuel prices are up 50-60% year-to-date, far more than crude, which is the real‑world inflation driver. This will lead the Fed to stay aggressive, keep the dollar rising as the preferred haven, and push Treasury yields higher across the curve.

Alphabet is well advanced in developing a new AI chip that could improve its development processes. If earnings confirm this, it could spur strong gains not only for Alphabet but for the broader AI space.

Chinese AI stocks are benefitting from a powerful trend toward cheaper, competitive Chinese AI products, amplified by the DeepSeek IPO and growing doubts about US AI providers' ability to justify enormous chip and data-center spending. This bifurcation makes China's AI plays an attractive long.

Refined petroleum product prices (gasoline, diesel) are set to remain elevated and likely rise further because of reduced refining capacity globally. Damage to refineries in the Persian Gulf from hostilities and Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries are keeping a large volume of refined product supply off the market. The resumption of fighting after the brief ceasefire will push pump prices back up, making this a hidden driver of inflation and a direct long opportunity in fuel products.

After a week of heavy selling driven by the SK Hynix offering overhang, Samsung earnings disappointment, and Iran-related geopolitical fears, South Korean equities are set to rebound sharply. The Hynix ADR pricing removes an overhang, and the easing of Middle East tensions and lower oil prices improve risk appetite. Foreign investors are no longer forced to sell Korean stocks due to concentration limits, and depressed valuations now present a compelling re-entry opportunity, likely triggering sharp upward moves and sidecar trading halts.

Samsung and SK Hynix share prices have corrected, removing the forced selling pressure that came when they breached portfolio concentration limits. Foreigners are now buying Korean shares again. Valuations are cheaper and AI demand remains strong, making this a good entry point for Korean tech.

Samsung and SK Hynix share prices have corrected, removing the forced selling pressure that came when they breached portfolio concentration limits. Foreigners are now buying Korean shares again. Valuations are cheaper and AI demand remains strong, making this a good entry point for Korean tech.

The Japanese yen remains under sustained depreciation pressure because the Bank of Japan is perceived as behind the curve on inflation, its newly appointed board members are instinctively dovish, and upcoming JGB sales like the 30-year auction face weak demand, keeping upward pressure on yields and yen selling. Even if the dollar pulls back temporarily, the yen will stay weak until either the Fed turns rate-neutral or the BOJ meaningfully accelerates rate hikes.

Markets are listening to President Trump's optimism about a Iran deal and are focusing back on AI, so investors are buying tech stocks that benefit from AI.