Andy Constan 5.0 30 ideas
Founder, Damped Spring Advisors
Total Picks
23
Avg Return
—
Avg Long
—
Avg Short
—
Best
—
—
Worst
—
—
Winrate (avg)
54%
Long / Short
13 / 10
Themes
MACRO
12
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AI/SEMI
4
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CRYPTO
3
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ENERGY
2
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CONSUMER
1
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OTHER
1
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| Ticker | Mentions | Stance | Conv | Entry | P&L YTD | Theme | Thesis (click to expand) | Mentioned | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | ×1 | SHORT | MED | $658.06 | Macro | Short the tech sector via QQQ as a directional bet against current tech valuations or momentum. | Apr 24 | ||
| CAR | ×1 | SHORT | MED | $637.72 | Consumer | Short CAR as the gamma squeeze is ending, with the company expected to fill demand, leading to a price decline. The author is maintaining a short position despite being underwater. | Apr 22 | ||
| USO | ×6 | SHORT | MED | $124.08 | Energy | Short December crude oil futures to hedge against a potential cratering in the oil market that would render existing put options worthless. | Apr 14 | ||
| IGV | ×2 | LONG | MED | $79.95 | AI/Semi | Buy the dip in software stocks following a sharp morning selloff, capitalizing on intraday weakness despite unusual price action. | Apr 14 | ||
| STRC | ×2 | LONG | HIGH | $100.01 | Other | Buy STRC to capture the upcoming dividend, as historical price action shows the ex-dividend drop is quickly recovered, creating an arbitrage-like opportunity. | Apr 13 | ||
| SMH | ×3 | SHORT | HIGH | $439.00 | AI/Semi | Initiating the short leg of a semiconductor/software spread trade, shorting SMH while waiting for leveraged fund liquidations in IGV to finish before eventually going long software. | Apr 10 | ||
| VIX | ×1 | SHORT | HIGH | $33.86 | Macro | The author is actively shorting VIX futures from what they perceive as a high, with a defined risk of a 20-point move against them. | Apr 07 | ||
| VXX | ×1 | SHORT | MED | $35.03 | Macro | Short VIX futures expecting implied volatility to decline due to geopolitical de-escalation (Iran-France prisoner exchange deal). | Apr 07 | ||
| USO | ×1 | LONG | HIGH | $137.92 | Energy | The author has initiated a half-sized maximum long position in December crude oil futures from an entry of $70.82. | Apr 03 | ||
| ALLW | ×1 | LONG | MED | $28.00 | Macro | Moderately leveraged risk parity offers superior risk-adjusted returns compared to equity-only portfolios and can be efficiently implemented using the ALLW ETF. | Mar 24 | ||
| TLT | ×1 | LONG | MED | $87.79 | Macro | The author is positioned for a Fed rate cut, which would be bullish for bonds, based on the political expectation that a new Fed chair would receive a "gesture" cut upon confirmation. | Mar 18 | ||
| VEA | ×6 | LONG | — | $67.38 | Macro | @TeacherxTrader Not much difference at the high level. I use VEA 🤷♂️ | Mar 04 | ||
| GLD | ×3 | LONG | MED | $473.42 | Macro | The author is bullish on gold as a hard asset, believing that policymakers will not reverse inflationary "debt wealth transfer" policies, thus devaluing fiat currency. | Feb 25 | ||
| SPY | ×4 | LONG | MED | $693.15 | Macro | The author recommends a permanent long allocation to broad market equities ("beta") based on the thesis that policymakers are committed to a path that supports asset prices. | Feb 25 | ||
| BTC | ×8 | LONG | MED | $64058.15 | Crypto | The author expresses a willingness to buy Bitcoin at current levels, showing conviction despite being at a loss on their existing position. | Feb 24 | ||
| VXUS | ×1 | LONG | MED | $83.42 | Macro | The author favors Rest of World (ROW) assets over US assets, stating their own positioning is based on the belief that a 60/40 portfolio is superior outside the US. | Feb 24 | ||
| SPY | ×17 | SHORT | MED | $687.35 | Macro | The author is avoiding/underweight US stocks based on a relative value view that a 60/40 portfolio offers a better risk/reward profile in the Rest of World (ROW). | Feb 24 | ||
| TLT | ×2 | SHORT | HIGH | $89.90 | Macro | The author argues that in an accelerating economy, the correct portfolio action is to sell bonds, stating they personally hold no US notes or bonds. | Feb 24 | ||
| UUP | ×1 | SHORT | HIGH | $27.09 | Macro | The author has a secular view that the US Dollar will underperform against a basket of Rest of World (ROW) currencies. | Feb 22 | ||
| GOOG | ×1 | LONG | HIGH | $323.59 | AI/Semi | The new Google bond offering is attractively priced ("a steal") relative to its existing bonds on the curve, presenting a buying opportunity. | Feb 09 | ||
| MSTR | ×1 | SHORT | — | $164.04 | Crypto | 1. THE FACT: The user is "selling at 1.06MNAV like a boss." 2. THE BRIDGE: This indicates a belief that MSTR's Net Asset Value (NAV) is at a level where selling is advantageous, implying a potential overvaluation or a belief that the price will decline. 3. THE VERDICT: Selling MSTR at its current NAV suggests a short position. | Jan 20 | ||
| IBIT | ×7 | LONG | — | $53.89 | Crypto | 1. THE FACT: @dampedspring mentioned "tax loss harvesting and bid the close on 12/31." They then stated "$MTPLF trading at 1.36 MNAV and $MSTR expanding MNAV to 1.06 and $IBIT looking incredible as a long digital gold catch up to gold silver." 2. THE BRIDGE: The mention of tax loss harvesting suggests a previous selling pressure that might now be alleviated. The specific valuations (MTPLF at 1.36 MNAV, MSTR expanding MNAV to 1.06) and IBIT being described as "incredible as a long digital gold catch up to gold silver" indicate a bullish view on these digital asset-related equities/ETFs. 3. THE VERDICT: Long MTPLF, MSTR, and IBIT as digital gold plays, potentially benefiting from post-tax loss harvesting dynamics and strong relative valuations. | Jan 14 | ||
| SMH | ×1 | LONG | — | $379.78 | AI/Semi | 1. THE FACT: "Nice breakout in $SMH." The speaker calls this a "mook." 2. THE BRIDGE: A "breakout" is a technical indicator often signaling upward momentum. 3. THE VERDICT: Long SMH due to a technical breakout. | Jan 05 |