VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Speaker states foreign and emerging markets had a "monster year" (e.g., +30%), and you could see an "extended move in foreign equities over the next few years." This is due to a combination of relative undervaluation, recent outperformance, positive momentum, and most investors being structurally under-allocated to non-US markets after a long cycle of US dominance. LONG because the shift away from US concentration and toward global diversification is believed to be in its early stages and could persist for years. A resurgence of US market strength and dollar momentum could halt or reverse the relative outperformance.

"You see the last 12 months you see international starting to work... The neutral allocation to foreign today is roughly 60/40... most people are nowhere near 50/50." US retail and institutional investors have spent the last 15 years heavily overweighting US large-cap tech. As international markets begin to show relative strength, portfolios will be forced to rebalance toward historical neutral weightings, driving sustained capital inflows into ex-US equities. LONG broad international equity ETFs to capture the mean reversion in global asset allocation. Continued US economic exceptionalism; a surging US dollar that suppresses foreign equity returns.

We came into the year relatively constructive outside of the U.S. from a stock market perspective... given growth around the world higher to this. Especially in Europe and parts of Asia. The weak dollar story was a huge support to ex-U.S. stocks. International developed markets are benefiting from a combination of accelerating relative economic growth and a weakening US dollar, which boosts the value of foreign earnings when translated back to USD. Long broad international or developed market ETFs to capture the geographic diversification and currency tailwinds that are currently outpacing US domestic growth. A sudden spike in the US dollar due to geopolitical safe-haven flows, or a severe escalation in the Middle East conflict that disproportionately hurts European energy markets.

@TeacherxTrader Not much difference at the high level. I use VEA 🤷‍♂️

Franklin Templeton notes a "regime shift" where earnings growth is broadening beyond the "Mag 7." The Russell 1000 Growth is down YTD while Value is up. The macro backdrop remains strong (GDP growth, spending), but valuations in Mega Tech are stretched. Capital is rotating into sectors with lower multiples that benefit from a resilient economy (Energy, Cyclicals, Small Caps). LONG Cyclicals, Energy, and Value to capture the rotation trade. A sharp economic slowdown or recession would hurt cyclicals more than quality tech.

1. THE FACT: Since 12/8/25, SPX is up 81bp, VEA up 3.3%, Gold up 6.2%, Silver up 35%. During the "silly Traders almanac 'santa window'", SPX -11bp, VEA up 2.25%, Gold -79bp, Silver 7.2%. The speaker emphasizes focusing on causality, not data mining. 2. THE BRIDGE: The speaker highlights strong performance in VEA, Gold, and Silver based on "root causes" rather than seasonal trading patterns, suggesting these assets are fundamentally strong. 3. THE VERDICT: Long VEA, Gold, and Silver based on underlying causal factors, not seasonal trading.

1. THE FACT: The speaker states, "We've preferred VEA and still do." 2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct endorsement of VEA. 3. THE VERDICT: Long VEA.