China Investigates Deadly Coal Mine Blast | The China Show 5/25/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 25, 2026 at 05:26  |  1:32:55  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Tracy Chen — Portfolio Manager, Brandywine Global
Yan Wang — Chief EM & China Strategist, Alpine Macro
Karen Young — Senior Research Scholar, Columbia University
Stephen Stapczynski — Asia Energy Coverage, Bloomberg

Summary

The China Show covers the impact of a potential US-Iran deal on oil prices, a deadly coal mine blast in China lifting coking coal futures, and a tech rally driven by DeepSeek's permanent price cuts and Huawei's chip breakthrough. Bond market analysts see structural yield rise, while a strategist predicts long-term RMB appreciation. The show also discusses Indonesia's new commodity export policy and cross-border trading crackdowns.

  • US and Iran close to a deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz, oil dips below $100.
  • China coal mine explosion kills 82, coking coal futures spike on safety crackdown fears.
  • China launches crackdown on illegal cross-border trading, impacting broker stocks.
  • DeepSeek makes 75% discount permanent on flagship AI model, boosting developer sentiment.
  • Huawei claims breakthrough in 1.4nm chip technology, narrowing gap with TSMC.
  • Tracy Chen sees structural bond selloff, expects US 10yr yield to reach 4.75-5% and 30yr 5.5-6%.
  • Yan Wang forecasts long-term RMB appreciation to 4 per dollar on productivity growth.
  • Indonesia unveils centralized commodity export agency to protect national interests.
Trade Ideas
Tracy Chen Portfolio Manager, Brandywine Global 30:06
Treasury yields to rise further
The global bond selloff is structural, driven by fiscal indiscipline, massive defense and infrastructure spending, aging demographics, and geopolitical turmoil, not just the Iran war. Therefore, US Treasury yields will continue to rise, with the 10-year heading to 4.75-5% and the 30-year to 5.5-6%.
TLT IEF HIGH
Tracy Chen Portfolio Manager, Brandywine Global 36:26
Philippines bonds offer attractive opportunity
After the sell-off, we added more position in Philippines sovereign bonds because their yield curve is the steepest in EM (140 bps 2s-10s), they are likely to be included in the JPMorgan GBI-EM index, and foreign ownership is below 5%, the lowest, making them attractive.
Philippines Sovereign Bonds HIGH
Yan Wang Chief EM & China Strategist, Alpine Macro 60:04
RMB to appreciate significantly over years
China's rapid productivity growth benefits consumers, leading to deflation and a cheap currency. Over a multi-year horizon, the RMB will appreciate substantially, potentially reaching 4 per dollar (20-30% from current levels), similar to the 50% real appreciation between 2005 and 2015 driven by the first wave of China's shock. This second wave of higher-value-added exports supports a stronger RMB.
CNY HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published May 25, 2026, features Tracy Chen, Yan Wang discussing TLT, IEF, Philippines Sovereign Bonds, CNY. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Tracy Chen, Yan Wang  · Tickers: TLT, IEF, Philippines Sovereign Bonds, CNY