Oil Falls, Stocks Rise as US, Iran Inch Toward Deal | The Asia Trade 5/25/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 25, 2026 at 04:41  |  1:34:59  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Kevin Hassett — Director, White House National Economic Council
Anthony Stevens — Bloomberg Market Producer
Alison Shimada — Senior Portfolio Manager, Allspring Global Investments
Illiana Jain — International Economist, Westpac

Summary

The episode covers market optimism around a potential US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to fall and stock futures to rise. It also discusses Japan's fiscal strategy, AI-driven tech trade in EM, and regional inflation risks. Guests provide views on oil, central bank policy, and emerging market opportunities.

  • US and Iran edge toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; oil prices drop 5%.
  • Japanese equities rally on lower oil and AI momentum; Topix near record.
  • Japan's PM orders supplementary budget for fuel subsidies.
  • AI remains the dominant theme; supply chain concentrated in South Korea, China, and Taiwan.
  • Westpac economist sees RBA hiking in August/September and BOJ hiking to 1% in June.
  • Allspring portfolio manager likes EM AI supply chain, India financials, and Brazil/Poland.
  • China's coal mine disaster raises risk of tighter safety rules affecting global coal supply.
  • Bloomberg investigation exposes carbon credit fraud in Chinese projects sold to European firms.
Trade Ideas
Kevin Hassett Director, White House National Economic Council 2:01
Oil prices will plummet on deal.
Energy prices (Brent crude) will plummet as soon as a US-Iran deal is reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This would then give the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates. The speaker clearly expects oil to fall sharply on the deal news.
BNO HIGH
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Speakers: Kevin Hassett  · Tickers: BNO