Stephen Stapczynski

Qatar LNG (12% of global supply) is offline. Iraq is cutting production. Tankers have halted travel through Hormuz. Lianting Tu notes a rotation from tech into "shipping and oil names." Physical supply is being removed from the market. Even with US naval escorts, insurance premiums and scarcity will drive up commodity prices (Oil/Gas) and the rates charged by tanker companies (Frontline/Euronav) willing to take the risk. Long Energy and Energy Logistics. Demand destruction from a global recession or a rapid peace deal releasing supply.

Qatar LNG (12% of global supply) is offline. Iraq is cutting production. Tankers have halted travel through Hormuz. Lianting Tu notes a rotation from tech into "shipping and oil names." Physical supply is being removed from the market. Even with US naval escorts, insurance premiums and scarcity will drive up commodity prices (Oil/Gas) and the rates charged by tanker companies (Frontline/Euronav) willing to take the risk. Long Energy and Energy Logistics. Demand destruction from a global recession or a rapid peace deal releasing supply.

The Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil supply) is seeing a "collapse in traffic." Shipowners refuse to transit due to missile/drone attacks. While Trump is floating "options" (SPR release, naval escorts), these are reactive and slow. The physical blockage of oil creates an immediate supply shock that paper trading (futures) must price in. US producers (XLE) benefit from higher prices without the geopolitical risk of Gulf producers. LONG oil exposure via futures or US producers. A rapid diplomatic resolution or a massive, coordinated global SPR release dampening prices.

The idea that the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital waterway for 20% of seaborne oil and fuel products, and that's going to remain shut and that's going to cause a strain on the markets, prices and consumers. A coordinated SPR release is a temporary band-aid that cannot replace 20% of global seaborne supply over the long run. If Hormuz remains closed, global supply remains structurally impaired. US-based energy producers are geographically insulated from the conflict and will reap massive windfall profits from sustained $100+ crude prices without facing the physical delivery risks of Middle Eastern producers. LONG US energy majors to capitalize on structurally higher oil prices and a lack of domestic supply disruption. A sudden diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict reopening the Strait of Hormuz would cause a rapid collapse in oil prices back toward the $70 level.

There are some countries that aren't getting the deliveries that they need, especially in South and Southeast Asia... Japanese refiners were pushing their government to try to go forward with tapping some of their reserves. Asian and European refiners rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude imports. With Hormuz shut, these foreign refiners face severe feedstock shortages and will have to cut utilization rates. US refiners, however, have access to abundant domestic crude (WTI). As global refined product supply drops due to foreign refiner curtailments, crack spreads (refining margins) will explode higher, disproportionately benefiting US refiners. LONG US refiners as they capture record margins driven by global product shortages and secure domestic feedstock. A global recession triggered by the energy shock could destroy consumer demand for gasoline and diesel, compressing refining margins despite the supply constraints.

There are some countries that aren't getting the deliveries that they need, especially in South and Southeast Asia... Japanese refiners were pushing their government to try to go forward with tapping some of their reserves. Asian and European refiners rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude imports. With Hormuz shut, these foreign refiners face severe feedstock shortages and will have to cut utilization rates. US refiners, however, have access to abundant domestic crude (WTI). As global refined product supply drops due to foreign refiner curtailments, crack spreads (refining margins) will explode higher, disproportionately benefiting US refiners. LONG US refiners as they capture record margins driven by global product shortages and secure domestic feedstock. A global recession triggered by the energy shock could destroy consumer demand for gasoline and diesel, compressing refining margins despite the supply constraints.

There are some countries that aren't getting the deliveries that they need, especially in South and Southeast Asia... Japanese refiners were pushing their government to try to go forward with tapping some of their reserves. Asian and European refiners rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude imports. With Hormuz shut, these foreign refiners face severe feedstock shortages and will have to cut utilization rates. US refiners, however, have access to abundant domestic crude (WTI). As global refined product supply drops due to foreign refiner curtailments, crack spreads (refining margins) will explode higher, disproportionately benefiting US refiners. LONG US refiners as they capture record margins driven by global product shortages and secure domestic feedstock. A global recession triggered by the energy shock could destroy consumer demand for gasoline and diesel, compressing refining margins despite the supply constraints.

The idea that the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital waterway for 20% of seaborne oil and fuel products, and that's going to remain shut and that's going to cause a strain on the markets, prices and consumers. A coordinated SPR release is a temporary band-aid that cannot replace 20% of global seaborne supply over the long run. If Hormuz remains closed, global supply remains structurally impaired. US-based energy producers are geographically insulated from the conflict and will reap massive windfall profits from sustained $100+ crude prices without facing the physical delivery risks of Middle Eastern producers. LONG US energy majors to capitalize on structurally higher oil prices and a lack of domestic supply disruption. A sudden diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict reopening the Strait of Hormuz would cause a rapid collapse in oil prices back toward the $70 level.

Qatar LNG (12% of global supply) is offline. Iraq is cutting production. Tankers have halted travel through Hormuz. Lianting Tu notes a rotation from tech into "shipping and oil names." Physical supply is being removed from the market. Even with US naval escorts, insurance premiums and scarcity will drive up commodity prices (Oil/Gas) and the rates charged by tanker companies (Frontline/Euronav) willing to take the risk. Long Energy and Energy Logistics. Demand destruction from a global recession or a rapid peace deal releasing supply.

Despite rising US-Iran tensions and a military buildup, oil prices are "boring" and steady. However, Gold continues to gain, marking a run of weekly wins. The market is treating Oil as a supply/demand story (which is bearish due to ample supply) but treating Gold as the true geopolitical and monetary hedge. With the US Dollar weakening and trade policy in chaos (Supreme Court rulings vs. Trump), Gold is the only clean "uncertainty" hedge. LONG. Gold is decoupling from traditional rate correlations and trading on pure uncertainty. A sudden diplomatic resolution with Iran or a sharp spike in the USD.