US USDJPY Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Brad Setser argues that Japan's MoF borrows yen rather than printing it, and notes oil at $110 with yen at 155-160 is more expensive in yen terms than oil at $120 with yen at 80 in 2011, highlighting currency-driven commodity price impacts.

Long USD/JPY on weak intervention

Brad Setser analyzes whether pushing the yen weaker than 160 will make markets nervous, noting the 2024 intervention set expectations that were just ratified.

Historical intervention patterns suggest USDJPY has further upside; skew from repeated intervention supports continued rally in the pair.

Brad Setser suggests a defense of the 160 yen level would not be surprising given concerns about the yen price of oil, implying potential intervention risk.

Andy Constan praises Nik Lentz's USDJPY short trade (long yen futures), but the tweet is a retweet without Constan's own forward-looking directional view.

Quinn Thompson argues the BOJ's hawkish stance is superficial and expects USDJPY to reach 160, signaling yen weakness and potential intervention risks.

Buy USDJPY expecting yen weakness as BOJ refrains from hawkish action, allowing the pair to rise toward 160.

Short yen amid weak BOJ communication.

The author is explicitly long USD/JPY, celebrating its break above the key 160 level and expecting the bullish trend to continue.

The Japanese Yen strengthens against the US Dollar as the pair drops by half a percent to reach the 159.06 level.

The author is skeptical that any Japanese FX intervention will succeed, expecting the market to overwhelm it and push USDJPY significantly higher.

USDJPY technical analysis, update https://t.co/bgn9MlLcF9

USDJPY technical analysis, update https://t.co/8ZXwtc5dMV

U.S. DOLLAR ALSO EXTENDS RISE VS YEN, LAST UP 0.3% AT 158.03 YEN

MUFG expects the Yen to weaken (USDJPY to rise) due to dovish appointments at the Bank of Japan.

"Reports... suggesting that the prime minister there has voiced apprehension about further rate hikes... I didn't really buy into this... narrative that Japan was going to be fiscally responsible." The bull case for the Yen relied on fiscal discipline and BOJ rate hikes. With bond issuance ramping up (fiscal looseness) and political pressure stopping rate hikes, the fundamental support for the Yen is gone. This clears the path for the Dollar to rip higher against the Yen. Long USD/JPY targeting 160 (currently ~156). Unexpected hawkish pivot by the BOJ or direct currency intervention by the Ministry of Finance.

Fed minutes were hawkish (wary of cuts, some suggesting hikes). US growth is 2.3% (above trend). Meanwhile, the UK front-end rates have rallied too much, leaving the Pound vulnerable. The divergence between a "High for Longer" Fed and other central banks creates a widening yield differential favoring the USD. Rochester explicitly targets USDJPY to 157 and Short Cable (GBPUSD). LONG USD. The macro data supports US exceptionalism and higher rates, strengthening the dollar. A sudden deterioration in US labor data prompting immediate Fed easing.

Unconfirmed rumors

1. THE FACT: "A Darvas Box (also referred to as a pennant in ancient lingo) has been completed in $USDJPY." 2. THE BRIDGE: The completion of a Darvas Box (or pennant) is a technical pattern that often precedes a breakout or breakdown. While no direction is given, it signals USDJPY is at a point of potential significant movement. 3. THE VERDICT: USDJPY has completed a Darvas Box pattern, suggesting a potential breakout/breakdown.

1. THE FACT: The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, but a somewhat dovish press conference surprised markets, contributing to the Yen weakening by 1% against the dollar. 2. THE BRIDGE: The market reaction to the dovish press conference after the rate hike indicates continued weakness for the Yen. 3. THE VERDICT: BoJ's dovish press conference after a rate hike led to JPY weakening, suggesting further downside for JPY or upside for USDJPY.