Speaker stated oil markets may have a permanent risk premium embedded due to destroyed energy infrastructure, with a new baseline price closer to $80 instead of $60. Destroyed infrastructure takes years to rebuild, and Iran's emboldened risk persists even with a ceasefire, sustaining higher prices. This implies a structural upward shift in oil prices, justifying a LONG view. A rapid resolution or ceasefire that reduces geopolitical tensions could lower the risk premium.
Speaker stated oil markets may have a permanent risk premium embedded due to destroyed energy infrastructure, with a new baseline price closer to $80 instead of $60. Destroyed infrastructure takes years to rebuild, and Iran's emboldened risk persists even with a ceasefire, sustaining higher prices. This implies a structural upward shift in oil prices, justifying a LONG view. A rapid resolution or ceasefire that reduces geopolitical tensions could lower the risk premium.