Citrini 9.2 67 ideas

Substack author, Citrini Research
After 1 day
50%winrate
+0.4% avg
31W / 31L · 62/67 ideas
After 1 week
56%winrate
+2.3% avg
34W / 27L · 61/66 ideas
After 1 month
54%winrate
+0.0% avg
20W / 17L · 37/66 ideas
20 winning  /  17 losing  ·  37 positions (30d)
Net: +0.0%
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
SPY LONG $700.65 Apr 16
NVDA LONG $177.39 Apr 01
ICVT SHORT $103.89 Mar 30
SPY SHORT $655.83 Mar 28
ES SHORT $69.47 Mar 28
SPY SHORT $655.83 Mar 28
BTC SHORT $67284.10 Mar 27
WTI LONG $137.92 Mar 27
EWM LONG $28.34 Mar 27
SPY SHORT $647.33 Mar 26
FSLY LONG $22.92 Mar 25
NET LONG $167.90 Mar 25
AKAM LONG $91.30 Mar 25
CRCL LONG $88.22 Mar 25
SPY SHORT $648.57 Mar 23
USHY SHORT $36.54 Mar 21
SPY SHORT $660.91 Mar 19
BWET LONG $77.45 Mar 18
By sector
ETF
37 ideas -1.7%
Stock
26 ideas +1.5%
Commodity
1 ideas
Crypto
1 ideas
index
1 ideas
private
1 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
SPY 13 ideas
80% W +2.5%
USO 5 ideas
25% W -4.6%
NVDA 5 ideas
100% W +3.5%
QQQ 2 ideas
50% W -1.8%
IGV 2 ideas
0% W -8.5%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
USO LONG +19.5%
The author is taking a contrarian long position in oil, betting that the sharp sell-off on geopolitical news is overdone...
Mar 09
OWL SHORT +18.3%
The author implies that Blue Owl's management reassurances about its portfolio quality are not credible, drawing a paral...
Feb 19
MU LONG +15.9%
1. THE FACT: A year and a half ago, expecting Micron to double in two years was controversial. Now, it's controversial *...
Jan 07
Worst calls
USO SHORT -18.7%
The author has entered a short position in oil with a defined risk (tight stop), indicating a high-conviction, short-ter...
Mar 10
RKT LONG -13.0%
1. THE FACT: Four months ago, the author outlined a thesis that Trump would direct "quasi-QE" by directing GSEs to buy M...
Jan 08
UNG LONG -12.3%
1. THE FACT: The tweet simply states "NATGAS BACK" with a link. 2. THE BRIDGE: The phrase "NATGAS BACK" implies a resurg...
Jan 21
Buy broad market equities on any dips, as investor psychology is deeply conditioned for V-shaped recoveries and will aggressively bid up even catastrophic events.
SPY MED Apr 16, 02:41
"At least for the remainder of Trump’s presidency, even a genuine, undeniable catastrophe won’t get sold off."
𝕏 @citrini ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 16, 2026 at 02:41
𝕏 @citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
The author is adding to a long position in Nvidia based on a valuation thesis that the stock is significantly undervalued.
NVDA HIGH Apr 01, 22:14
"I have bought more Nvidia on the thesis that it is way too cheap and should probably not be that cheap."
𝕏 @citrini ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 01, 2026 at 22:14
𝕏 @citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
Short ICVT as a convex way to bet on a rising/flat rate environment where speculative stocks fall, with limited upside risk.
ICVT HIGH Mar 30, 00:05
"Conversely, in a 'rates up / flat, speculative stocks crash' environment, ICVT gives you a solid convex short with minimal risk of getting BTFO’d on the upside in a squeeze."
𝕏 @citrini ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 30, 2026 at 00:05
𝕏 @citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
The author expects the S&P 500 to drop below 6000 despite potential short-term rallies.
SPY Mar 28, 11:20
𝕏 @citrini Source ↗
March 28, 2026 at 11:20
𝕏 @citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
The author expresses high conviction in a macro pair trade involving a long position in SFRH7 and a short position in ES.
ES Mar 28, 00:55
𝕏 @citrini Source ↗
March 28, 2026 at 00:55
𝕏 @citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
The author highlights significant market declines and criticizes those who ignored prudent capital allocation strategies.
SPY Mar 28, 00:16
𝕏 @citrini Source ↗
March 28, 2026 at 00:16
𝕏 @citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
The author reviews past macro trade performance, highlighting significant gains in oil and tankers alongside losses in Bitcoin and international equities.
EWM WTI Mar 27, 00:32
𝕏 @citrini Source ↗
March 27, 2026 at 00:32
𝕏 @citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
The author reviews past macro trade performance, highlighting significant gains in oil and tankers alongside losses in Bitcoin and international equities.
BTC Mar 27, 00:32
𝕏 @citrini Source ↗
March 27, 2026 at 00:32
𝕏 @citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
The author believes the broader market is at the start of a major, underestimated downtrend and expects significant downside.
SPY HIGH Mar 26, 22:23
"I’m starting to be a real believer in the market going down. Will be a mega trend like no one is really imagining right now."
𝕏 @citrini ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 26, 2026 at 22:23
𝕏 @citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
NET is an 'Agentic Utility' providing necessary digital plumbing and infrastructure for the boom in AI agent traffic, and market sentiment is reversing positively as its AI angle is recognized.
NET HIGH Mar 25, 12:36
"We have been slowly adding to our allocation names that are aligned with the “Agentic Utility” layer - we are currently long AKAM, FSLY, CRCL and NET in the Citrindex."
TLDR
The author argues that AI has entered its third phase, the 'Agentic Era,' characterized by autonomous AI agents executing complex tasks and driving massive token consumption. This paradigm shift requires a new digital infrastructure, creating investment opportunities in 'Agentic Utilities' that provide the necessary plumbing, ecosystem services, and governance for agentic traffic. • AI adoption has moved from hyperscaling and commodification to the 'Agentic Era' of integration and specialization. • AI agents like OpenClaw have rapidly evolved from abstract concepts to highly capable services, driving massive token consumption and network effects. • The proliferation of AI agents will reshape digital traffic patterns, requiring robust new infrastructure and bandwidth. • 'Agentic Utilities' are emerging as the first B2A (Business-to-Agent) vendors, offering essential services like payment rails, digital plumbing, and observability. • Legacy infrastructure companies are already seeing revenue inflections as they adapt to accommodate the boom in agentic traffic. • The author is actively buying infrastructure names that the market is just beginning to recognize as beneficiaries of the AI agent narrative.
▣ Citrini Research ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 25, 2026 at 12:36
▣ Citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
AKAM is an 'Agentic Utility' providing necessary digital plumbing and infrastructure for the boom in AI agent traffic, and market sentiment is reversing positively as its AI angle is recognized.
AKAM HIGH Mar 25, 12:36
"We have been slowly adding to our allocation names that are aligned with the “Agentic Utility” layer - we are currently long AKAM, FSLY, CRCL and NET in the Citrindex."
TLDR
The author argues that AI has entered its third phase, the 'Agentic Era,' characterized by autonomous AI agents executing complex tasks and driving massive token consumption. This paradigm shift requires a new digital infrastructure, creating investment opportunities in 'Agentic Utilities' that provide the necessary plumbing, ecosystem services, and governance for agentic traffic. • AI adoption has moved from hyperscaling and commodification to the 'Agentic Era' of integration and specialization. • AI agents like OpenClaw have rapidly evolved from abstract concepts to highly capable services, driving massive token consumption and network effects. • The proliferation of AI agents will reshape digital traffic patterns, requiring robust new infrastructure and bandwidth. • 'Agentic Utilities' are emerging as the first B2A (Business-to-Agent) vendors, offering essential services like payment rails, digital plumbing, and observability. • Legacy infrastructure companies are already seeing revenue inflections as they adapt to accommodate the boom in agentic traffic. • The author is actively buying infrastructure names that the market is just beginning to recognize as beneficiaries of the AI agent narrative.
▣ Citrini Research ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 25, 2026 at 12:36
▣ Citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
FSLY is an 'Agentic Utility' providing necessary digital plumbing and infrastructure for the boom in AI agent traffic, and market sentiment is reversing positively as its AI angle is recognized.
FSLY HIGH Mar 25, 12:36
"We have been slowly adding to our allocation names that are aligned with the “Agentic Utility” layer - we are currently long AKAM, FSLY, CRCL and NET in the Citrindex."
TLDR
The author argues that AI has entered its third phase, the 'Agentic Era,' characterized by autonomous AI agents executing complex tasks and driving massive token consumption. This paradigm shift requires a new digital infrastructure, creating investment opportunities in 'Agentic Utilities' that provide the necessary plumbing, ecosystem services, and governance for agentic traffic. • AI adoption has moved from hyperscaling and commodification to the 'Agentic Era' of integration and specialization. • AI agents like OpenClaw have rapidly evolved from abstract concepts to highly capable services, driving massive token consumption and network effects. • The proliferation of AI agents will reshape digital traffic patterns, requiring robust new infrastructure and bandwidth. • 'Agentic Utilities' are emerging as the first B2A (Business-to-Agent) vendors, offering essential services like payment rails, digital plumbing, and observability. • Legacy infrastructure companies are already seeing revenue inflections as they adapt to accommodate the boom in agentic traffic. • The author is actively buying infrastructure names that the market is just beginning to recognize as beneficiaries of the AI agent narrative.
▣ Citrini Research ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 25, 2026 at 12:36
▣ Citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
CRCL is an 'Agentic Utility' providing necessary digital plumbing and infrastructure for the boom in AI agent traffic, and market sentiment is reversing positively as its AI angle is recognized.
CRCL HIGH Mar 25, 12:36
"We have been slowly adding to our allocation names that are aligned with the “Agentic Utility” layer - we are currently long AKAM, FSLY, CRCL and NET in the Citrindex."
TLDR
The author argues that AI has entered its third phase, the 'Agentic Era,' characterized by autonomous AI agents executing complex tasks and driving massive token consumption. This paradigm shift requires a new digital infrastructure, creating investment opportunities in 'Agentic Utilities' that provide the necessary plumbing, ecosystem services, and governance for agentic traffic. • AI adoption has moved from hyperscaling and commodification to the 'Agentic Era' of integration and specialization. • AI agents like OpenClaw have rapidly evolved from abstract concepts to highly capable services, driving massive token consumption and network effects. • The proliferation of AI agents will reshape digital traffic patterns, requiring robust new infrastructure and bandwidth. • 'Agentic Utilities' are emerging as the first B2A (Business-to-Agent) vendors, offering essential services like payment rails, digital plumbing, and observability. • Legacy infrastructure companies are already seeing revenue inflections as they adapt to accommodate the boom in agentic traffic. • The author is actively buying infrastructure names that the market is just beginning to recognize as beneficiaries of the AI agent narrative.
▣ Citrini Research ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 25, 2026 at 12:36
▣ Citrini
Substack author, Citrini Research
The author is bearish on broad equities over the next 4-8 weeks, citing a lack of bullish catalysts and increasingly one-sided market sentiment.
SPY MED Mar 23, 03:59
"I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term."
𝕏 @citrini ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 23, 2026 at 03:59
𝕏 @citrini
Citrini (Substack author, Citrini Research) | 67 trade ideas tracked | SPY, USO, NVDA, QQQ, IGV | Substack, Twitter | Buzzberg