Iran Nuclear Threat: Germany Moves to Fix Trump-Merz Rift | The Pulse 5/7
Summary
The video covers Iran-US nuclear negotiations and oil market implications, an interview with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul on US-Germany relations and NATO, and a segment with Morgan Stanley's James Lord who shares bearish views on the US dollar and bullish views on select emerging market currencies (BRL, HUF, TRY, KRW) and USD/JPY. It also includes news on Arm's royalty weakness, Anthropic's compute deal with SpaceX, and Shell earnings.
- Oil steadies as US and Iran exchange fresh proposals to end the war; Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.
- German foreign minister says relations with US are solid despite tensions over Iran and troop withdrawals.
- Morgan Stanley's James Lord is bearish on the US dollar due to strong risk appetite and equities.
- James Lord recommends long positions in Brazilian real, Hungarian forint, Turkish lira, and Korean won.
- James Lord expects USD/JPY to rise (yen to weaken) as FX intervention is unlikely to be sustained.
- Arm shares fall on weak smartphone demand; data center growth offsets partly.
- Anthropic signs a computing deal with SpaceX to secure AI compute capacity.
- Shell reports higher Q1 profits driven by oil price surge and trading business.
Trade Ideas
Long Hungarian forint on domestic strength
James Lord likes the Hungarian forint for its strong domestic fundamentals and positive bottom-up story, making it attractive in a risk-on environment.
Long Brazilian real on solid fundamentals
James Lord favors the Brazilian real due to its solid domestic story, positive bottom-up fundamentals, and resilience beyond pure carry trade dynamics. He sees it as a currency that can perform well in the current risk-on environment.
Long Turkish lira on solid base
James Lord favors the Turkish lira, citing it as a currency with a solid domestic narrative and well-based fundamentals, supporting its appreciation.
Long Korean won on cheap valuation
James Lord is bullish on the Korean won, noting it is a cheap currency and that Korea's trade balance continues to grow despite higher oil prices, which supports a stronger won.
Long USD/JPY on weak intervention
James Lord expects USD/JPY to move higher (i.e., yen to weaken) because the fundamental case points to a rise in the pair. He argues that FX intervention is unlikely to have a sustained impact and that the rate differential narrative has lost influence, with risk appetite and terms of trade now driving the yen.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published May 07, 2026, features James Lord discussing HUF, BRL, TRY, KRW, USDJPY. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.