Trade of The Week - MacroVoices #537

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 18, 2026 at 21:26  |  24:23  |  Macro Voices
Speakers
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend — Founder & Host, MacroVoices

Summary

MacroVoices #537 postgame features a Trade of the Week on the DBA agriculture fund via a bull call spread, betting on delayed crop input tightening from shipping disruptions. Erik Townsend also argues that crude oil's peace-deal selloff is overdone and expects a bounce to $85-$100, while Patrick Ceresna sees US dollar strength, a potential equity rotation into financials, defense and industrials, and a seasonal wait in uranium.

  • Patrick Ceresna presents the Trade of the Week: a DBA bull call spread to play delayed agricultural supply stress from shipping disruptions into 2026.
  • Erik Townsend expects crude oil to retrace higher to at least $85 and possibly above $100, citing critically low inventories and overdone peace-deal selling.
  • Patrick sees the US dollar well bid, with USDJPY poised for a new leg down in the yen and EURUSD breaking lower, supported by flows into US assets.
  • A potential rotation from energy and semiconductors into lagging sectors like financials, defense, and industrials is flagged as a developing theme.
  • Uranium remains a long-term bull story but is in seasonal summer doldrums; a pickup is likely in late August around the World Nuclear Association conference.
  • Treasury yields likely peaked near 4.70%, but no immediate long bond trade is signaled; more time is needed for inflation and rate clarity.
Ideas
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 0:36
Long DBA for delayed agricultural supply stress.
Coming out of Brent Johnson's interview, the bigger opportunity from shipping disruptions will be delayed knock-on effects on fertilizers, chemicals, and other crop inputs, turning this into a food story into Q4 and Q1 2026. The cleanest way to express the thesis is a longer-dated bull call spread on the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) to position for a rebound and repricing in the agricultural basket over the next seven months with defined risk.
DBA HIGH
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 5:35
Rotation into financials, defense, industrials.
After the Hormuz reopening spurred another leg higher in equities, the market may see a rebalancing rotation out of the strong performers (energy stocks and some semiconductors) into lagging sectors. Flows could broaden into financials, defense contractors, and industrials, and we'll be watching for that broader sector rotation story to emerge.
XLF ITA XLI MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 8:14
Dollar strength, yen and euro weakness.
The US dollar remains very well bid with clear strength. The yen may have a whole new leg down after the BoJ rate hike failed to move USDJPY and it is crawling above 160. The euro remains below its 50-day moving average and is breaking to lower lows. Flows into US equities are supporting the dollar, and a breakout above the 100 level on DXY is a key question.
DXY USDJPY MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 8:14
Dollar strength, yen and euro weakness.
The US dollar remains very well bid with clear strength. The yen may have a whole new leg down after the BoJ rate hike failed to move USDJPY and it is crawling above 160. The euro remains below its 50-day moving average and is breaking to lower lows. Flows into US equities are supporting the dollar, and a breakout above the 100 level on DXY is a key question.
EURUSD MED
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 9:14
Oil bounce to $85-$100.
Oil sold off hard on the peace deal, testing the 200-day moving average, but this is likely a local bottom. Physical shortages remain severe with commercial inventories at operational minimums and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest since 1983. The market is underestimating how long it will take to restore traffic and catch up on deliveries. An upside retracement is very likely to fill the glaring chart gap up to at least $85, and prices could be back over $100 before year-end, though the $150-$200 doomsday prediction is withdrawn because China can buffer the crisis.
WTI HIGH
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 17:40
Uranium stocks to catch late summer.
Remains uber-bullish long-term on uranium due to clean energy demand from AI data centers, but near-term the sector is in its seasonal summer doldrums. Action usually picks up in late August leading into the World Nuclear Association conference in early September, so that period is when the market may start to catch a bid again. Currently uranium stocks are in a distribution cycle and we are waiting for bottoming formations.
Uranium Stocks MED
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 19:28
Yields peak near 4.70%, await bond entry.
Yields on the 10-year Treasury note have been pressuring lower from the peaks a month ago and are now under 4.5%, but have not yet officially broken into a new downtrend. It is very reasonable to assume that yields near 4.70% will be a key high, but that does not make it an immediate opportunity to go long bonds. It will take a good chunk of the summer to see a meaningful turn in inflation expectations and a repricing in yields.
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note MED
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This Macro Voices video, published June 18, 2026, features Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend discussing DBA, XLF, ITA, XLI, DXY, USDJPY, EURUSD, WTI, Uranium Stocks, 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend  · Tickers: DBA, XLF, ITA, XLI, DXY, USDJPY, EURUSD, WTI, Uranium Stocks, 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note