EURUSD : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Short GBP/EUR as the options market is pricing in greater downside risk for the pound relative to the euro.

Speaker explicitly stated, "I think we'll get Eurodollar down to 112" and indicated further declines to 110 or parity if the war drags on. Prolonged war keeps oil prices elevated, causing broad second-round inflation. This forces central banks to maintain or hike rates, but the US benefits from energy exports (LNG and oil), creating a terms of trade advantage that drives dollar appreciation against the euro. SHORT on EUR/USD because the dollar is expected to strengthen due to the war's inflationary impact, relative US economic resilience, and terms of trade shock. The war ends quickly, reducing oil price pressures and inflationary expectations, which would diminish dollar strength and rate hike pricing.

Long EUR/USD as a more hawkish ECB rate path relative to prior expectations should support the currency.

Patrick Ceresna proposes shorting the Euro as the cleanest way to express the thesis that rising energy and food import costs create a direct terms-of-trade shock for Europe, similar to import-dependent emerging markets. Sustained high energy prices force European nations to demand more dollars to fund essential imports, creating persistent selling pressure on the Euro. The EUR/USD pair is a direct, liquid proxy for this macro view. He structures the idea with a defined-risk options overlay (short futures paired with a call spread) to hedge against headline-driven rallies. The trade loses its edge if oil prices roll over, supply chains normalize, or global growth stabilizes, removing the terms-of-trade pressure.

The ECB's baseline scenario includes two more rate hikes, a hawkish stance that should be supportive of the Euro.

The trade is long the Euro based on Deutsche Bank's revised, hawkish forecast for two ECB rate hikes this year, contrary to previous expectations of no change.

A hawkish ECB policymaker is signaling a potential rate hike to combat war-related inflation, which would strengthen the Euro.

An ECB official's forward-looking statement on higher inflation implies a more hawkish policy stance, which is supportive for the Euro.

Expects the European Central Bank to hike rates in the coming months due to inflation, which is typically bullish for the currency.

The Euro is poised to strengthen as Barclays has shifted to a more hawkish forecast, now expecting two ECB rate hikes in the near future.

Morgan Stanley projects the ECB will begin cutting rates in mid-2027 to a neutral level, which is bearish for the Euro.

Morgan Stanley's revised forecast for two ECB rate hikes in 2026 suggests a more hawkish policy path, which is bullish for the Euro.

A major bank has shifted to a hawkish ECB forecast, expecting two rate hikes which should provide a tailwind for the Euro.

The ECB is anticipating a stagflationary environment (higher inflation, lower growth), which is a fundamentally bearish catalyst for the Euro.

The ECB is signaling a hawkish reaction function to potential war-related inflation, creating a conditional but clear catalyst for rate hikes that would strengthen the EUR.

ECB sources are signaling a hawkish pivot with a likely rate hike in June, which should be supportive for the Euro.

A sourced report indicates a potential hawkish pivot from the ECB as soon as April, which would be bullish for the Euro if geopolitical tensions persist and keep inflation concerns elevated.

The market is incorrectly pricing in future ECB rate hikes, and a more dovish reality will lead to a weaker Euro relative to other currencies.

Key indicators like the Taylor Rule and rising long-term inflation expectations suggest the ECB is behind the curve, creating pressure for a more hawkish policy stance that would strengthen the Euro.

The author argues that the Chinese Yuan remains undervalued against the Euro and has not appreciated sufficiently, implying the CNY is likely to strengthen (and EUR/CNY to fall).

The Riksbank is expected to maintain a hawkish stance and not cut rates due to inflation risks, which should strengthen the Swedish Krona (SEK).

Short the Euro against the US Dollar, as a persistent oil shock is expected to weaken the Euro and drive the exchange rate down to parity (1.0000).

Short European (and Asian) currencies as their economies are highly vulnerable to the recent doubling of oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz closure compared to the US.

The author is calling for US Dollar strength against the Euro, a classic risk-off trade often associated with geopolitical instability.

A Reuters poll of economists suggests the ECB will remain dovish and hold rates for the year despite inflation, which is a bearish catalyst for the Euro.

A Czech central bank board member is signaling a dovish policy stance (no hikes) despite inflationary pressures from oil, which is bearish for the Czech Koruna.

An influential ECB member is signaling a hawkish stance due to inflation risks from the Iran conflict, which could lead to earlier rate hikes and strengthen the Euro.

First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) EURO DOWN 0.77%, STERLING FALLS 0.85%. Tweet Link

The author predicts European policymakers will resort to monetary expansion ("printing") to solve problems, which is fundamentally bearish for the Euro currency.

The author predicts European policymakers will resort to monetary easing ("printing"), which would devalue the Euro.