FoftyPawlow 5.0 48 ideas
After 1 day
51%winrate
+0.2% avg
18W / 17L · 35/44 ideas
After 1 week
66%winrate
+1.5% avg
23W / 12L · 35/44 ideas
After 1 month
31%winrate
+0.8% avg
9W / 20L · 29/44 ideas
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
By sector
ETF
28 ideas
+4.4%
Stock
8 ideas
-3.3%
Crypto
6 ideas
+0.5%
currency
3 ideas
-7.8%
Commodity
2 ideas
+0.0%
sector
1 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
SPY
9 ideas
50% W
+3.7%
BTC
6 ideas
20% W
+0.5%
GLD
3 ideas
—
—
QQQ
3 ideas
0% W
-4.7%
USD
3 ideas
0% W
-7.8%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
USO LONG
+58.4%
The author implies that escalating military conflict in the Middle East will cause a significant increase in oil and gas...
Feb 28
WTI LONG
+27.7%
Imagine Korean Degens will get the idea to replicate silver but in crude
Mar 06
XHB SHORT
+17.1%
The US housing market will remain frozen due to the "golden handcuffs" effect, where existing homeowners with ultra-low ...
Feb 27
Worst calls
WTI SHORT
-27.7%
Bloomberg could also just rename to WatcherGuru with the random headlines they try to suppress oil down all day
Mar 06
NFLX LONG
-15.9%
1. THE FACT: NFLX 130C Feb20.
2. THE BRIDGE: The purchase of a call option implies a bullish outlook on the underlying a...
Nov 17
USD SHORT
-9.5%
1. THE FACT: *US SEPT. CORE PPI RISES 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.3%. *US SEPT. RETAIL 'CONTROL GROUP' SALES FALL 0.1% M/M; EST. +...
Nov 25
Expecting a continued grind lower in equities through April and May if the 6800 level (likely SPX) fails to hold, potentially accompanied by a spike in the VIX.
SPY
MED
Mar 25, 14:06
The author is holding a long gold position, dismissing the ceasefire rumors as a manufactured narrative to create exit liquidity for upcoming 5-year Treasury note auctions rather than a genuine de-escalation.
GLD
HIGH
Mar 24, 20:55
Gold is highly vulnerable to a sharp selloff in a liquidity squeeze or Asian carry trade unwind because it is heavily used as collateral and will be liquidated first.
GLD
MED
Mar 21, 00:26
The author believes that despite current funding pressures causing poor performance, an inevitable intervention will lead to a rally in gold.
GLD
MED
Mar 20, 19:03
The (alleged) downing of F-35 jets will likely trigger increased government defense spending and new contracts for Lockheed Martin.
LMT
MED
Mar 20, 10:44
The author implies a bearish outlook for the market, suggesting that the recent support from short covering is exhausted, leaving the market vulnerable to remaining selling pressure.
SPY
MED
Mar 19, 20:11
The author interprets the continuation of a probe into the Fed Chair as a political move to ensure his long-term tenure, which would reduce policy uncertainty for markets.
SPY
MED
Mar 19, 18:34
The author expects a potential "rug pull" in the venture capital and AI sectors, which they believe would cause a significant downturn in the broader stock market.
QQQ
MED
Mar 19, 15:32
The market is incorrectly pricing in future ECB rate hikes, and a more dovish reality will lead to a weaker Euro relative to other currencies.
EURUSD
HIGH
Mar 19, 14:02
The market is overly hawkish in pricing two ECB rate hikes for 2026, creating an opportunity to short the Euro (via FXE) in anticipation of a more dovish reality.
FXE
MED
Mar 18, 14:38
The author expects Bitcoin to outperform as the "AI bubble" deflates, anticipating a capital rotation into BTC.
BTC
MED
Mar 17, 17:38
The author predicts a "spot down, vol down" market environment, where high option skew prevents a sharp crash but leads to a slow grind lower for equities as protective puts decay in value.
SPY
HIGH
Mar 17, 15:42
The author expects a gradual market decline with decreasing volatility, similar to the 2022 environment, driven by the decay of existing hedges rather than a sharp, crash-like event.
SPY
MED
Mar 13, 20:03
Gulf sovereign wealth funds may liquidate broad market assets to cover war-related losses, creating potential selling pressure.
SPY
MED
Mar 12, 14:47
A conditional short thesis on the market, suggesting that if heavy VIX call buying persists and the Hormuz situation doesn't improve by mid-week, the market could be pushed lower into options expiration.
SPY
MED
Mar 11, 19:54