Jordan Rochester 1.6 4 ideas

Speaker explicitly stated, "I think we'll get Eurodollar down to 112" and indicated further declines to 110 or parity if the war drags on. Prolonged war keeps oil prices elevated, causing broad second-round inflation. This forces central banks to maintain or hike rates, but the US benefits from energy exports (LNG and oil), creating a terms of trade advantage that drives dollar appreciation against the euro. SHORT on EUR/USD because the dollar is expected to strengthen due to the war's inflationary impact, relative US economic resilience, and terms of trade shock. The war ends quickly, reducing oil price pressures and inflationary expectations, which would diminish dollar strength and rate hike pricing.

"The valuations of the euro versus the dollar... will continue to fall as long as oil stays at these levels... we could see much lower prices in the euro versus the dollar. We will start talking about levels of 1.10 in a month's time." The Eurozone is highly sensitive to energy import costs. A sustained oil shock acts as a massive tax on the European economy, driving terms-of-trade deterioration, while the US Dollar benefits from safe-haven flows and a hawkish repricing of the Federal Reserve. SHORT the Euro as the energy crisis disproportionately hurts European economic growth relative to the US. The ECB hikes rates aggressively to defend the currency and fight inflation, or the Strait of Hormuz reopens, collapsing oil prices and reversing the terms-of-trade shock.

Fed minutes were hawkish (wary of cuts, some suggesting hikes). US growth is 2.3% (above trend). Meanwhile, the UK front-end rates have rallied too much, leaving the Pound vulnerable. The divergence between a "High for Longer" Fed and other central banks creates a widening yield differential favoring the USD. Rochester explicitly targets USDJPY to 157 and Short Cable (GBPUSD). LONG USD. The macro data supports US exceptionalism and higher rates, strengthening the dollar. A sudden deterioration in US labor data prompting immediate Fed easing.