Patrick Ceresna 5.8 73 ideas
Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
After 1 day
45%winrate
-0.4% avg
24W / 29L · 53/54 ideas
After 1 week
55%winrate
+0.1% avg
28W / 23L · 51/54 ideas
After 1 month
38%winrate
+3.9% avg
14W / 23L · 37/54 ideas
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
By sector
ETF
59 ideas
+5.5%
Stock
7 ideas
-9.6%
Commodity
4 ideas
currency
3 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
USO
9 ideas
100% W
+38.7%
SPY
8 ideas
100% W
+0.2%
SMH
6 ideas
25% W
-4.5%
GLD
6 ideas
0% W
-11.5%
QQQ
4 ideas
0% W
-1.0%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
USO LONG
+62.8%
"Over the last two months, oil has been very well accumulated. All supports and sell-offs have been held... everything t...
Feb 26
FXE SHORT
+1.3%
Patrick explicitly recommends shorting the June 2026 Euro futures contract (hedged with a call spread) to express a bull...
Feb 19
Worst calls
EWY LONG
-22.6%
"The Cosby, the South Korean index, which is going full-on parabolic." South Korea is a major beneficiary of the semicon...
Feb 26
URA LONG
-17.5%
"The entire pullback on the U308 has been just a traditional retracement. So the primary trend of higher highs, higher l...
Feb 26
GLD LONG
-13.2%
Gold has corrected roughly 20% peak-to-trough but the long-term structural bull market driven by de-dollarization and ce...
Feb 26
Patrick Ceresna recommended a June 2026 NYMEX crude oil bull call spread (buy $100 call, sell $120 call) for a net debit of ~$3, offering a maximum payout of ~$17 if crude rallies above $120 by expiration. The recent ceasefire only reduced immediate threat, but the structural risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains, creating an asymmetric payoff profile where downside is limited to the premium paid, while upside is leveraged to a re-escalation. LONG via options spread to gain convex, defined-risk exposure to a potential re-escalation of geopolitical risk and its impact on oil prices. The ceasefire holds, the Strait reopens fully, and oil flows normalize, leading to stable or lower oil prices through June.
WTI
Macro Voices
Apr 09, 17:09
Host/Derivatives Specialist
Patrick explicitly described structuring a June 2026 NSX crude oil bull call spread (buy $100 call, sell $120 call) for a net debit near $3, risking $3 to gain up to $17. The ceasefire reduced immediate threat but did not eliminate Strait of Hormuz risk; downside is limited while any re-escalation could quickly push prices toward recent highs. Asymmetric setup with high reward-to-risk (near 6:1) favors a long position via options to capture convex upside if geopolitics deteriorate. The ceasefire holds and the situation stabilizes, keeping oil prices subdued.
WTI
Macro Voices
Apr 09, 17:06
Host/Derivatives Specialist
Patrick observed Treasury yields have pulled back from highs and are directly sensitive to oil price movements. Bonds are seen as a buying opportunity, but only after the current geopolitical stresses settle and the path for yields becomes clearer. Waiting for resolution before positioning long bonds, as short-term uncertainties remain high. Oil prices re-escalate, pushing yields higher and delaying a bond rally.
TLT
Macro Voices
Apr 09, 17:06
Host/Derivatives Specialist
Patrick noted the S&P 500 retraced nearly 8% off lows but is close to prior highs with overhead resistance, amid persistent risks (higher oil, inflation, credit stresses). While tactical upside is possible, asymmetry is lacking due to substantial downside risk if the market rolls over, making long positions unattractive. Advises against putting new risk on here, as the setup does not favor a bullish bias given elevated uncertainties. The market breaks out above resistance and continues advancing.
SPY
Macro Voices
Apr 09, 17:06
Host/Derivatives Specialist
The speaker recommended expressing a bearish view on the private credit/BDC complex (proxy: BIZD ETF) due to stress from AI disrupting the SaaS companies that form a meaningful part of its portfolio, following Matt Barrie's thesis. The BIZD is already down ~15% YTD, making a physical short expensive due to negative carry from its distribution yield. Buying in-the-money put options (e.g., May 15th, 2026 $13 put) provides direct downside convexity with defined, capped risk. SHORT via options to gain exposure to the theme of private credit repricing without the cost burden of a physical short, positioning for a potential next leg lower in the sector. A broad market rally or a stabilization in credit spreads could lead to time decay and loss of the option premium, though risk is capped to the premium paid.
BIZD
Macro Voices
Apr 02, 14:18
Host/Derivatives Specialist
The dollar is consolidating at the top of an 8-month trading range with geopolitical tailwinds, currently around 99.77 on the DXY. If it sustains above the 100 level and breaks to fresh highs, it could easily shoot up to 102-103. WATCH for bullish follow-through on the dollar as a technical breakout play, given supportive chart structure. Failure to break out or unexpected escalation in conflict altering market dynamics.
DG
Macro Voices
Apr 02, 14:11
Host/Derivatives Specialist
AI is destabilizing the private credit complex exposed to SaaS businesses, with BIZD (a BDC and private credit proxy) already down over 15% year-to-date. To avoid the negative carry of a physical short from high distribution yield, buy May 15th 2026 $13 put options for convex downside exposure with limited premium decay. SHORT on BIZD to capitalize on potential further deterioration in private credit due to AI-driven stress and repricing. Market stabilizes or rallies, capping loss at the option premium paid (~$1.10).
BIZD
Macro Voices
Apr 02, 14:11
Host/Derivatives Specialist
Gold is in a correction phase after a 2-year bull run, with potential to test lower levels like 4200 or 4000, but long-term fundamentals remain bullish. The correction presents buying opportunities; any dips should be used to accumulate positions for an eventual rally. LONG on gold for a sustained move back to all-time highs, viewing the current correction as a setup for future gains. Further escalation in the Iran conflict leading to oil-induced inflation, which could delay Fed rate cuts and pressure gold in the short term.
GOLD
Macro Voices
Apr 02, 14:11
Host/Derivatives Specialist
The speaker proposed buying May 2026 $13 put options on the BIZD ETF, a public market proxy for Business Development Companies (BDCs) and private credit. Matt Barrie's analysis indicates private credit is stressed because its portfolios contain debt from SaaS companies whose business models are being eroded by AI, and funding rounds are becoming too large for equity, forcing over-reliance on debt. SHORT (via puts) to gain convex downside exposure to a potential repricing of credit risk in the private credit space, while avoiding the negative carry of a physical short. The private credit market stabilizes or rallies, or the stress does not materialize in the public BDC complex within the option's timeframe.
BIZD
Macro Voices
Apr 02, 12:34
Host/Derivatives Specialist
Speaker proposes a trade to express the view that rising energy/food costs stress import-dependent economies. He states the cleanest way is via EUR/USD, as Europe acts like a large import-dependent economy, and sustained demand for dollars to fund imports pressures the euro lower. The thesis is that the terms-of-trade shock from the Iran conflict will disproportionately hurt the Eurozone, leading to capital flows into USD. SHORT EUR/USD. A defined-risk structure (e.g., short futures hedged with a call spread) is recommended to manage geopolitical headline risk. A rapid de-escalation in Iran, normalization of supply chains, or a stabilization in global growth would remove the downward pressure on the euro.
USD
Macro Voices
Mar 26, 18:11
Host/Derivatives Specialist
Patrick Ceresna proposes shorting the Euro as the cleanest way to express the thesis that rising energy and food import costs create a direct terms-of-trade shock for Europe, similar to import-dependent emerging markets. Sustained high energy prices force European nations to demand more dollars to fund essential imports, creating persistent selling pressure on the Euro. The EUR/USD pair is a direct, liquid proxy for this macro view. He structures the idea with a defined-risk options overlay (short futures paired with a call spread) to hedge against headline-driven rallies. The trade loses its edge if oil prices roll over, supply chains normalize, or global growth stabilizes, removing the terms-of-trade pressure.
Host/Derivatives Specialist
The speaker proposes a trade to express the view that food inflation is the underappreciated macro risk, using the WEAT ETF via a defined-risk call spread (buy Oct 2026 $25 call, sell $30 call) for a ~4:1 payoff ratio. The thesis is that tightening export flows and a net-short positioning backdrop in Chicago SRW wheat create potential for a sharp repricing if the food inflation narrative gains recognition. WATCH because the structure is a pre-positioned, limited-risk bet on a specific narrative gaining traction, not an outright long recommendation. The food inflation narrative fails to materialize or is already fully priced into elevated option volatility.
WEAT
Macro Voices
Mar 20, 10:29
Host/Derivatives Specialist
The speaker notes gold is in a consolidation phase following a blowoff top, with analogies to past 2-4 month consolidations. He identifies $4,800 as first support and suggests a drop to $4,400-$4,500 could be a "compelling buy on dip." The technical view is that gold needs time to consolidate before attempting new highs, with a potential for a deeper correction within the ongoing bull trend. WATCH for a deeper correction to identified support levels to establish a long position, rather than advocating an immediate long or short. The consolidation pattern breaks down structurally, or geopolitical events abruptly re-establish gold's safe-haven correlation.
GOLD
Macro Voices
Mar 20, 10:29
Host/Derivatives Specialist
Patrick Ceresna proposed a trade to go long Chicago SRW wheat via the WEAT ETF, using a call spread (buy $25 call / sell $30 call) expiring Oct 16, 2026. The thesis is that food inflation is an underappreciated second-wave risk following the energy shock. Historical parallels (1970s) show food inflation had a larger CPI impact than energy. Current fertilizer supply disruptions and weather risks create a setup for tightening wheat markets, which is not yet fully priced. The defined-risk call spread structure offers a favorable payoff to position for a potential repricing of the food inflation narrative. Direction is LONG. The Iran conflict resolves quickly, fertilizer flows normalize, and global harvests are strong, negating the food inflation threat.
WEAT
Macro Voices
Mar 19, 21:05
Host/Derivatives Specialist