SO SOFR Amplify Samsung SOFR ETF Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

The overnight SOFR rate is attractive for sitting out market drama, and the SSOFR ETF provides access to this institutional rate, yielding 3.6% with overnight duration.

The author maintains a short position on long duration bonds while planning to add to SOFR futures longs over the next month, expecting more inflation scares before easing.

Based on Mike Green's view that the economy is weakening faster than headline data suggests, with deteriorating labor conditions, overstated payrolls, and demand destruction from the energy shock rather than persistent inflation, the market is underpricing the probability of aggressive Fed easing. The trade is a bull call spread on December 2027 SOFR futures to capture a reversal in the future policy rate path, targeting a move to higher prices as rates are cut more than expected.

Long SOFR futures offer an asymmetric upside payout because further rate hikes are highly unlikely due to recession risks, while rate cuts have already been completely priced out.

The author is long SOFR calls as a long-term tail hedge, betting that a major AI-driven layoff cycle will force interest rates to fall significantly by 2028.

Author discloses an active long position in SOFR futures, implying a view for lower short-term rates or a dovish Fed path ahead.

Buy March/April SOFR futures — Powell's dovish tone, falling near-term inflation expectations, and disinflationary tariff pass-through make another Fed normalization cut squarely on the table, leaving front-end SOFR underpriced.