ces921 5.0 117 ideas

After 1 day
51%winrate
+0.8% avg
48W / 47L · 95/108 ideas
After 1 week
67%winrate
+2.6% avg
64W / 32L · 96/108 ideas
After 1 month
68%winrate
+7.4% avg
47W / 22L · 69/108 ideas
47 winning  /  22 losing  ·  69 positions (30d)
Net: +7.4%
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
SPY SHORT $700.62 Apr 16
USO LONG $123.76 Apr 16
BNO LONG $47.75 Apr 15
IWM SHORT $262.28 Apr 10
USO SHORT $128.75 Apr 09
USO LONG $125.86 Apr 09
SPY SHORT $654.50 Apr 01
USO LONG $125.91 Mar 30
USDJPY LONG — — Mar 27
SPY SHORT $644.55 Mar 27
SPY SHORT $648.06 Mar 26
SPY SHORT $645.16 Mar 26
USO LONG $116.70 Mar 26
SPY LONG $659.80 Mar 25
SPY SHORT $655.05 Mar 24
SPY SHORT $648.57 Mar 22
SPY SHORT $653.28 Mar 22
SPY SHORT $653.28 Mar 22
SPY SHORT $653.28 Mar 21
SPY SHORT $645.91 Mar 20
SPY SHORT $651.48 Mar 20
SPY SHORT $651.92 Mar 20
SPY SHORT $659.01 Mar 19
SPY SHORT $663.79 Mar 18
SPY SHORT $666.60 Mar 18
SPY SHORT $666.81 Mar 18
USO LONG $121.73 Mar 18
SPY SHORT $668.80 Mar 18
USO LONG $122.06 Mar 18
TLT LONG $87.76 Mar 18
By sector
ETF
99 ideas +4.7%
currency
4 ideas +16.5%
index
4 ideas +13.3%
Stock
4 ideas +6.8%
Commodity
3 ideas +46.3%
sector
3 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
SPY 35 ideas
57% W +1.2%
USO 19 ideas
89% W +28.7%
TLT 8 ideas
83% W +2.4%
VIX 4 ideas
100% W +13.3%
JPY 2 ideas
100% W +12.4%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
USO LONG +52.9%
The US government's reactive and improperly sequenced crisis response (financial before military) suggests the geopoliti...
Mar 03
SILVER LONG +50.3%
1. THE FACT: China is weaponizing materials, specifically silver, by controlling throughput and using export licenses. S...
Dec 27
WTI LONG +44.3%
The blunt reality is that trying to suppress hedging in futures markets (potential genius idea from Treasury coming) doe...
Mar 05
Worst calls
JETS SHORT -21.7%
1. THE FACT: TSA checkpoint data shows a "pretty sizable deterioration in yoy growth trends over the last couple weeks."...
Nov 18
USO SHORT -18.8%
Retail gasoline prices are expected to fall as they catch up to the recent significant drop in crude oil prices followin...
Mar 10
GLD LONG -13.5%
Heightened policy uncertainty and market anxiety surrounding tariffs are driving capital into gold as a safe-haven asset...
Feb 23
Go long oil as the market underestimates the deepening supply shock and functional closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
USO HIGH Apr 16, 11:53
"Brent near $96 with Hormuz still functionally closed... tells you the supply shock is real and deepening"
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 16, 2026 at 11:53
𝕏 @ces921
Short equities due to a severe disconnect between current market optimism and the physical reality of an unresolved US-Iran conflict.
SPY HIGH Apr 16, 11:53
"Markets are pricing a clean resolution to the US-Iran conflict that the physical world is emphatically not delivering - and that disconnect is the dominant risk sitting underneath this morning's equity optimism."
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 16, 2026 at 11:53
𝕏 @ces921
Go long Brent crude as the market underprices the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure following Iranian warnings regarding the US naval blockade.
BNO HIGH Apr 15, 12:32
"with Brent snapping back above $96 after a brutal prior-session selloff, the crude market is pricing in that this strait doesn't reopen cleanly or quickly."
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 15, 2026 at 12:32
𝕏 @ces921
The author is actively increasing a bearish options position on the small-cap index (IWM).
IWM HIGH Apr 10, 13:48
"I have decided to put more IWM puts into the prison pocket."
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 10, 2026 at 13:48
𝕏 @ces921
Implies that a key geopolitical risk premium for oil will soon dissipate as supply chains normalize, suggesting lower oil prices.
USO MED Apr 09, 15:45
"Strait of Hormuz opening up imminently they also say. Back to pre- March 1st supply chains in no time"
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 09, 2026 at 15:45
𝕏 @ces921
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would restrict supply and lead to higher oil prices, benefiting oil revenues.
USO MED Apr 09, 00:52
"keeping the strait closed is a positive carry event for Iran as they earn higher oil revenues for the oil they sell..."
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 09, 2026 at 00:52
𝕏 @ces921
The market's complacent relief rally regarding Iran is misplaced as geopolitical tensions are likely to escalate, creating downside risk for equities.
SPY MED Apr 01, 19:00
"That's fine but markets are voting as if this is over and Iran knows it and so they are digging in"
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 01, 2026 at 19:00
𝕏 @ces921
Author implies a strong long oil thesis due to a severe, ongoing supply crisis in the Strait of Hormuz that dwarfs previous shocks.
USO HIGH Mar 30, 12:07
"Morgan Stanley's warning of an 'air pocket' for crude has crystallized into a full-blown supply crisis, with Brent punching through $125 as the Hormuz chokepoint bleeds 15 million barrels per day from global markets..."
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ short-term to medium-term Source ↗
March 30, 2026 at 12:07
𝕏 @ces921
The author is explicitly long USD/JPY, celebrating its break above the key 160 level and expecting the bullish trend to continue.
USDJPY HIGH Mar 27, 16:12
"USDJPY thru 160. Let the good times roll"
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 27, 2026 at 16:12
𝕏 @ces921
Expects short-term downward pressure on the S&P 500 from a large put strike acting as a magnet and from potential pension selling for quarterly rebalancing.
SPY MED Mar 27, 10:28
"Additional important flows short term to watch can come from the JHEQX put strike at 6475 cash SPX for 3/31 expiry and possible pension quarterly rebalance flows into stocks."
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 27, 2026 at 10:28
𝕏 @ces921
Broad equities are expected to experience a sharp sell-off in the near term due to the ongoing closure and Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.
SPY MED Mar 26, 20:54
"Financial markets are liking to break over the next 10 days in light of Hormuz still being closed/controlled by Iran."
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 26, 2026 at 20:54
𝕏 @ces921
The broader market is in a structurally bearish regime driven by a VIX surge, dollar strength, and SPY trading well below its 20-day moving average, requiring defensive positioning.
SPY HIGH Mar 26, 20:10
"The market remains entrenched in a confirmed downtrend... in a structurally bearish regime that demands defensive positioning."
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 26, 2026 at 20:10
𝕏 @ces921
The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz will continue to drive elevated energy prices and oil revenues.
USO HIGH Mar 26, 09:57
"Every week Hormuz stays closed, Tehran collects transit fees, books elevated oil revenue, and normalizes a sovereignty claim modeled explicitly on the Suez Canal precedent."
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 26, 2026 at 09:57
𝕏 @ces921
Mechanical buying pressure from $14 billion in quarter-end pension rebalancing flows and supportive dealer gamma positioning is expected to drive a short-term relief rally in equities.
SPY HIGH Mar 25, 11:59
"The dealer gamma profile-short downside, long upside-combined with $14 billion in pension rebalancing flows (97th percentile) into equities through quarter-end creates mechanical buying pressure that could catalyze a relief r[ally]"
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 25, 2026 at 11:59
𝕏 @ces921
The broader market faces short-term downside risk as supportive share buyback flows dry up ahead of earnings blackout periods while operating in a negative gamma regime.
SPY MED Mar 24, 12:12
"Still in a negative gamma regime, supported by share buyback flows but those will be dissipating as we push thru the week and more companies move into the blackout period."
𝕏 @ces921 ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 24, 2026 at 12:12
𝕏 @ces921
ces921 | 117 trade ideas tracked | SPY, USO, TLT, VIX, JPY | Twitter | Buzzberg