#535
Alpha Score 28.4
ces921
Author, The Aletheia Narrative (Substack)
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Mar 03
$90.20
+52.0%
The author posits that Iran's military actions are a deliberate strategy to disrupt key global economic chokepoints, which will likely lead to higher energy prices.
The author posits that Iran's military actions are a deliberate strategy to disrupt key global economic chokepoints, which will likely lead to higher energy prices.
Energy
Long
Jan 12
$25.84
-5.7%
1. THE FACT: President Trump is back as a "Chaos Agent and Volatility Accelerator" and is focusing on "Main Street over Wall Street" to address polling declines.
2. THE BRIDGE: Trump's populist shift and "chaos agent" persona are likely to increase market volatility.
3. THE VERDICT: Long volatility products as Trump's actions will accelerate market uncertainty.
1. THE FACT: President Trump is back as a "Chaos Agent and Volatility Accelerator" and is focusing on "Main Street over Wall Street" to address polling declines.
2. THE BRIDGE: Trump's populist shift and "chaos agent" persona are likely to increase market volatility.
3. THE VERDICT: Long volatility products as Trump's actions will accelerate market uncertainty.
Macro
Short
Apr 28
$709.65
-7.0%
Short S&P 500 on bounces into resistance as defensive rotation, oil spike to $100, and stagflation fears pressure risk assets ahead of mega-cap earnings.
Short S&P 500 on bounces into resistance as defensive rotation, oil spike to $100, and stagflation fears pressure risk assets ahead of mega-cap earnings.
Macro
Long
Jan 05
$46.87
+23.7%
1. THE FACT: "Wild dispersion day under the hood today. We have a pro-cyclical rotation into banks, energy, materials with some modest movement out of Mag 7 while defensive sectors like XLU, XLV and XLP underperforming. And this comes on the back of a weaker than expected ISM print and bonds"
2. THE BRIDGE: There is a pro-cyclical rotation into banks, energy, and materials, indicating strength in these sectors.
3. THE VERDICT: Long banks, energy, and materials due to pro-cyclical rotation.
1. THE FACT: "Wild dispersion day under the hood today. We have a pro-cyclical rotation into banks, energy, materials with some modest movement out of Mag 7 while defensive sectors like XLU, XLV and XLP underperforming. And this comes on the back of a weaker than expected ISM print and bonds"
2. THE BRIDGE: There is a pro-cyclical rotation into banks, energy, and materials, indicating strength in these sectors.
3. THE VERDICT: Long banks, energy, and materials due to pro-cyclical rotation.
Energy
Short
Apr 10
$262.28
-11.1%
The author is actively increasing a bearish options position on the small-cap index (IWM).
Macro
Long
Mar 25
$659.80
+15.1%
Mechanical buying pressure from $14 billion in quarter-end pension rebalancing flows and supportive dealer gamma positioning is expected to drive a short-term relief rally in equities.
Mechanical buying pressure from $14 billion in quarter-end pension rebalancing flows and supportive dealer gamma positioning is expected to drive a short-term relief rally in equities.
Macro
Long
Feb 23
$481.28
-14.4%
Heightened policy uncertainty and market anxiety surrounding tariffs are driving capital into gold as a safe-haven asset.
Heightened policy uncertainty and market anxiety surrounding tariffs are driving capital into gold as a safe-haven asset.
Macro
Long
Feb 20
$609.84
+22.5%
The Supreme Court's anti-tariff ruling will act as a catalyst for a significant rotation into growth stocks over value stocks.
The Supreme Court's anti-tariff ruling will act as a catalyst for a significant rotation into growth stocks over value stocks.
Macro
Long
Jan 05
$46.59
+10.3%
1. THE FACT: "Wild dispersion day under the hood today. We have a pro-cyclical rotation into banks, energy, materials with some modest movement out of Mag 7 while defensive sectors like XLU, XLV and XLP underperforming. And this comes on the back of a weaker than expected ISM print and bonds"
2. THE BRIDGE: There is a pro-cyclical rotation into banks, energy, and materials, indicating strength in these sectors.
3. THE VERDICT: Long banks, energy, and materials due to pro-cyclical rotation.
1. THE FACT: "Wild dispersion day under the hood today. We have a pro-cyclical rotation into banks, energy, materials with some modest movement out of Mag 7 while defensive sectors like XLU, XLV and XLP underperforming. And this comes on the back of a weaker than expected ISM print and bonds"
2. THE BRIDGE: There is a pro-cyclical rotation into banks, energy, and materials, indicating strength in these sectors.
3. THE VERDICT: Long banks, energy, and materials due to pro-cyclical rotation.
Other
Long
May 20
$723.12
+47.2%
Long Micron as the primary beneficiary of the Samsung strike, which disrupts HBM/DRAM supply at peak AI data center demand, accelerating memory price inflation.
Long Micron as the primary beneficiary of the Samsung strike, which disrupts HBM/DRAM supply at peak AI data center demand, accelerating memory price inflation.
AI/Semi
Short
May 19
$538.75
-17.5%
Short SMH on morning bounce due to record crowding, no downside protection, and leveraged ETF short gamma that forces $4B selling on a 2% drop, with Wednesday's catalyst stack as the risk peak.
Short SMH on morning bounce due to record crowding, no downside protection, and leveraged ETF short gamma that forces $4B selling on a 2% drop, with Wednesday's catalyst stack as the risk peak.
AI/Semi
Long
May 06
$69.03
-0.8%
Buy ES above 7,350 on quality growth rotation, semiconductor/industrial leadership in AI infrastructure, disinflationary bond rally and commodity deflation supporting margins.
Buy ES above 7,350 on quality growth rotation, semiconductor/industrial leadership in AI infrastructure, disinflationary bond rally and commodity deflation supporting margins.
Energy
Long
May 01
$71.35
-0.4%
Buy AUD via FXA as commodity price surge supports terms of trade and provides floor under RBA rate expectations.
Buy AUD via FXA as commodity price surge supports terms of trade and provides floor under RBA rate expectations.
Macro
Long
Mar 18
$87.76
-2.5%
Geopolitical and energy market pressures are creating a structural shift that will force the Fed to become more dovish, making a long position in bonds attractive.
Geopolitical and energy market pressures are creating a structural shift that will force the Fed to become more dovish, making a long position in bonds attractive.
Macro
Long
Mar 06
$40.46
+1.0%
The selective blockade is expected to disrupt shipping routes, increase insurance costs, and create market inefficiencies, which should lead to higher freight rates and benefit shipping companies.
The selective blockade is expected to disrupt shipping routes, increase insurance costs, and create market inefficiencies, which should lead to higher freight rates and benefit shipping companies.
Other
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