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Next edition in 1352 min Nov 5, 23:00 - Nov 6, 09:00 Lisbon
Premarket Alpha Midday Alpha Post-Market Alpha
Daily Alpha Premarket Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What matters before the open

AAOI's $1B-$1.5B hyperscaler deal came with a delayed ramp; SoftBank 5-year CDS hit 466bp as the KOSPI fell 8.8%; TrendForce sees 2027 DRAM bit supply growth slowing to 24% as Korean memory stocks fell; Mike Wilson sees semis 10-15% lower by mid-November.

Main narratives

day change
01

AAOI disclosed a $1B-$1.5B hyperscaler agreement but pushed its $471M monthly revenue run-rate target to late 2027

Applied Optoelectronics posted Q3 sales of $269.9M, up 127.5% year on year, and guided Q4 to $385M-$420M. It has about $450M of 1.6T orders but expects to deliver only $50M-$70M in Q4 because of component shortages. The CEO said a second agreement, possibly five times larger than the first, is in its final stages. A separate call summary says 2026 guidance was cut from 650K to 500K+.

AAOI +6.4%
02

SoftBank 5-year CDS widened 22bp to 466bp, the highest since 2022, as the KOSPI fell 8.8% and tripped a circuit breaker

The AI selloff reached Asian credit. SoftBank 5-year credit default swaps widened 22bp to 466bp, per Reuters, and SoftBank Group led declines in Asian dollar bonds, per Bloomberg. The KOSPI fell 8.8%, back below 5,000, triggering a circuit breaker. A UBS Asia desk update shared by Zerohedge saw acute selling in SK Hynix (4:1 better to sell) and Samsung Electronics (5:1), while long-only investors supported TSMC.

SFTBY +2.7% · 000660.KS -10.4% · 005930.KS -6.3% · TSM +7.0%
03

TrendForce sees 2027 DRAM bit supply growth slowing to 24% as SK Hynix and Samsung fell 13.6% and 11% in Korean premarket

Jukan reported SK Hynix down 13.6% and Samsung Electronics down 11% in Korean premarket trading. TrendForce, relayed by @pequityresearch, expects overall DRAM bit supply growth to slow to 24% in 2027, and server CPU shipments to grow over 30%, above roughly 25% server DRAM bit supply growth. In a quote shared by Beth Kindig, SK Hynix said its DRAM and HBM volumes through 2029 are effectively sold out.

000660.KS -10.4% · 005930.KS -6.3% · MU +5.8% · SNDK +3.5%
04

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson sees semiconductors falling another 10-15% by mid-November in a late-stage correction

Mike Wilson frames the correction that began in June as late-stage but warns the final phase may still need index-level weakness and a volatility spike. He sees semiconductors falling another 10-15% by mid-November as AI financing concerns are digested, with hedge-fund positioning near a 12-month low. Separately, @krugermacro counted 33 Nasdaq-100 one-day drops of 6.25% or more since 1985; in 21, the index fell another 10% or more within 63 days.

QQQ +1.6%

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
Clean Energy +3.4σ
BE +4.2% · NXT +5.3%
16 posts 9 voices base 5.2
Crypto Miners +3.2σ
WULF +12.8% · HUT +15.3% · CIFR +17.7%
+3 more RIOT — · CORZ — · ABTC —
9 posts 4 voices base 2.0
Equity Indexes +2.6σ
SPY — · EWY +4.3% · QQQ +1.6%
+21 more NDX — · NQ — · EWJ — · ^KS11 — · SPX — · DIA — · IWM — · EEM — · KORU — · XAU — · COMPQ — · SCHD — · TOPIX — · FXI — · VGK — · NDQ.AX — · NASDAQ — · VOO — · KOSPI — · KS11 — · COMP —
82 posts 54 voices base 46.7
Grid Equipment +2.3σ
VRT +4.0% · GEV +0.5% · PSIX +5.9%
+4 more 034020.KS — · 7011.T — · ENR.DE — · 119850.KQ —
14 posts 6 voices base 6.0
AI Compute +2.2σ
NVDA +3.9% · AMD +10.5%
60 posts 42 voices base 35.5
Capital Markets +2.2σ
SFTBY +2.7% · 9984.T -10.8% · BR -1.8%
+6 more 071050.KS — · MQG.AX — · EMG.L — · ENX.PA — · 402340.KS — · BRK.B —
12 posts 10 voices base 5.8
NeoCloud +2.0σ
IREN +20.4% · NBIS +8.3% · CRWV +6.3%
+3 more APLD — · NXT.AX — · SHAZ —
53 posts 24 voices base 28.1
Networking & Photonics +1.7σ
AAOI +6.4% · LITE +6.0% · COHR +14.4%
+12 more SIVE — · CRDO — · ANET — · NOK +2.5% · LPTH — · AXTI — · CSCO — · FN — · CIEN — · NOKIA.HE — · NOVT — · KEYS —
35 posts 13 voices base 17.9
Construction & Infrastructure +1.0σ
GNTX -1.1% · XYL -3.2% · LG —
+8 more 000720.KS — · 047040.KS — · 028260.KS — · 1960.T — · DTG — · J — · 028050.KS — · OR.PA —
10 posts 9 voices base 7.0
Thematic ETFs +0.9σ
SMH +3.8% · SOXX +3.8% · SOXL +12.6%
+17 more XLF -0.7% · SKYY -0.5% · DRAM — · XLB -0.9% · XLY — · MSOS +2.4% · 102970.KS — · XME — · XLK — · ICLN — · 069500.KS — · AIA +2.8% · IGV — · XLE +0.6% · XLU -0.6% · KWEB +0.5% · AIQ —
34 posts 35 voices base 27.8
AI ASIC +0.5σ
AVGO +0.7% · MRVL +6.3% · ALAB +6.2%
+3 more ARM — · QCOM — · MCHP —
18 posts 12 voices base 13.8
Software & SaaS +0.5σ
APP +9.8% · U +5.5% · PLTR +3.6%
+4 more NOW — · 018260.KS — · SVIA — · TEAM —
13 posts 11 voices base 10.7
AI Hardware +0.5σ
HPE +1.4% · SMCI +6.6% · HPQ -3.0%
+8 more 0992.HK — · DELL — · CLS — · 204270.KQ — · 009150.KS — · FROG — · VPG — · MSI —
12 posts 8 voices base 9.4
Commodities +0.4σ
USO +0.1% · GLD -0.5% · CPER +0.8%
+6 more BNO — · UNG — · SILVER — · GOLD — · WTI +0.1% · LNG -0.6%
23 posts 13 voices base 20.9
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

2 positions · 2 voices

Refiners: @thevalueist added

@thevalueist said refiners look very attractive on the selloff and disclosed adding, arguing they will stay highly profitable into next year even if refining margins stay flat or mildly compress.

@thevalueist Alpha #5 44 smart
$NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE My initial reaction to the past 3 days is not to add long GAI infrastructure delta
VLO
7d before-13.3%
since call +0.2%
MPC
7d before-16.2%
since call +0.2%
PSX
7d before-13.1%
since call +0.9%
DK
7d before-13.1%
since call +0.0%
CLMT
7d before-20.2%
since call +2.9%

Selective / waiting

3 positions · 3 voices

AI infrastructure: @thevalueist not adding yet

@thevalueist's initial reaction is not to add long AI infrastructure delta in NVDA, MU, SNDK or LITE; if a pre-Thanksgiving IPO timeline fails, another wave of selling could follow, though nothing has changed long term for the buildout.

@thevalueist Alpha #5 44 smart
$NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE My initial reaction to the past 3 days is not to add long GAI infrastructure delta
NVDA
7d before-8.8%
since call +1.1%
MU
7d before-22.0%
since call +0.7%
SNDK
7d before-27.4%
since call +0.0%
LITE
7d before-35.9%
since call +0.3%

Fading / not buying

2 positions · 3 voices

Neoclouds: Cramer and Dan Niles

Jim Cramer singled out CoreWeave, IREN and Nebius as debt-laden neoclouds whose projects will likely be delayed by regulation; Dan Niles said neoclouds are in a tougher spot on token price pressure and higher funding costs.

Dan NilesFereidun FesharakiClaudio PironPeter KimRashesh Shah
CNBC
Now, you're the first company I've heard that is not involved with thermal management that actually addresses the concept of
Bloomberg Markets
JAPAN HAS ENTERED A BEAR MARKET. TAIWAN GETTING HAMMERED AS WELL.
CRWV
7d before-15.4%
since call +0.0%
IREN
7d before-9.6%
since call +0.3%
NBIS
7d before-16.0%
since call +0.7%
YouTube
22 videos · 37h 25m Bloomberg guests split between a positioning washout and a needed AI infrastructure repricing, while Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson expects semiconductors may weaken further before a durable bottom. Open the desk →
X
1508 posts Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) parsed AAOI's call and Chamath read the Texas governor-elect's data-center comments as not bullish, while a UBS desk note saw acute selling in Korean memory. Open the desk →
Reddit
473 threads Reddit split between dip-buying in AI hardware and Palantir's political risk; standout posts covered Oracle's bond pricing and UBER at 13.5x free cash flow. Open the desk →
Substack
14 letters Tae Kim argued the market is misreading the Texas election, Gaetano flagged AAOI's delayed ramp, and Noah Smith called the Democratic wave fragile. Open the desk →