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Next edition in 279 min Nov 3, 23:00 - Nov 4, 09:00 Lisbon
Premarket Alpha Midday Alpha Post-Market Alpha
Daily Alpha Premarket Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What matters before the open

Nasdaq futures fell as markets priced in a Democratic win of both chambers, and a Democrat won the Texas governorship, leaving Abbott's data-center moratorium in doubt. Gerstner sees 10-15 GW of expected AI build not coming online; Anthropic's S-1 shows $266B of purchase commitments.

Main narratives

day change
01

A Democrat won the Texas governorship, putting Abbott's data-center moratorium in doubt

A Democrat won the Texas governorship for the first time in decades, though Republicans still control the Texas House and Senate, per Bianco Research. Texas will host 25% of all data centers coming online through 2030, and Abbott's September 21 construction moratorium may not be lifted. @jiahanjimliu expects Hinojosa to block all new approvals until the legislature sets conditions; @aleabitoreddit expects some headwinds for individual developers rather than a market-wide hit.

IREN -7.6% · CRWV -7.7% · NVDA -7.9%
02

The Democratic sweep hit Nasdaq futures while solar and health-insurer names rallied

As Democrats moved toward control of both chambers, Nasdaq 100 futures fell more than 2% and the S&P 500 was on track to open below 7,500, per The Kobeissi Letter. RBC's Lori Calvasina said the pressure was concentrated in large-cap growth and tech while small-cap futures were steadier. A midterms basket flagged by @gaetano2026 rose: ENPH 17%, FSLR 8%, OSCR 10% and CNC 5%. Tesla and SpaceX fell after hours, per Bloomberg.

QQQ -5.8% · SPY — · ENPH -8.1% · FSLR +1.2%
+3 more OSCR -6.2% · CNC -2.2% · TSLA -10.1%
03

Gerstner expects 10-15 GW of planned AI capacity not to come online, while Super Micro says power and shells bind

Brad Gerstner, via All-In, said consensus expects 43 GW to come online in 2027 versus about 38 GW cumulative in the US at end-2026, and with local backlash now compounded by the blue wave, 10-15 GW of that build may not come online. Super Micro's CFO said land, power and data-center shells, not demand, are the binding constraints; deferred revenue rose $3.1B in one quarter as customers prepaid for racks.

SMCI -6.9% · NBIS -13.2% · MSFT -3.9% · META -3.9%
+1 more GOOGL -1.9%
04

Anthropic's S-1 shows purchase commitments of about $266B, with Broadcom guaranteeing up to $43B of a chip lease

Bloomberg reports Anthropic disclosed about $895B of committed spending as its IPO nears. Reading the S-1, @tengyanAI notes H1 2026 capex was just $482M, while purchase commitments rose from about $55B to about $266B in six months and signed leases not yet started total about $321B. Broadcom guaranteed lenders up to about $43B on a $63B chip lease.

AVGO -8.7% · ANTHROPIC —

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
AI Compute +2.8σ
AMD -14.5% · NVDA -7.9% · CBRS -9.8%
61 posts 38 voices base 34.2
Crypto Miners +2.8σ
CIFR -8.9% · HUT -3.5% · RIOT -1.8%
+3 more WULF — · MARA — · CORZ —
8 posts 7 voices base 1.9
Capital Markets +2.7σ
ASST -10.2% · NDAQ -3.2% · CBOE +2.3%
+7 more APO — · TRI — · 9984.T — · GS — · BRK.B — · BAM — · SFTBY —
12 posts 10 voices base 5.7
Networking & Photonics +2.1σ
AAOI -26.1% · LITE -16.2% · ANET -9.1%
+13 more OUST — · SIVE — · AXTI — · CRDO — · COHR — · CIEN — · CSCO — · FN — · NOKIA.HE — · APH — · KEYS — · VIAV — · MTSI —
32 posts 16 voices base 15.8
Equity Indexes +1.5σ
SPY — · QQQ -5.8% · SPX —
+21 more EWY — · NQ — · NDX — · ES — · SPMO — · EWJ — · ^KS11 — · FMTM — · MCHI — · FXI — · COMPQ — · VOO — · VT — · DIA — · IDMO — · SENSEX — · NASDAQ — · IWM — · KORU — · EWT — · SCHD —
64 posts 42 voices base 44.5
Clean Energy +1.4σ
BE -13.1% · FSLR +1.2% · TE -15.4%
+4 more 096770.KS — · 009830.KS — · ENPH -8.1% · RUN +11.4%
9 posts 7 voices base 5.0
Grid Equipment +1.3σ
298040.KS -11.2% · ETN -6.5% · VRT -12.0%
+6 more GEV — · 000500.KS — · 000150.KS — · POWL -11.2% · 267260.KS — · 010120.KS —
10 posts 8 voices base 5.8
Pharma & Biotech +1.0σ
KYMR -8.0% · ABVX -6.6% · SNY -1.4%
+18 more 196170.KQ — · 2616.HK — · NRIX — · INSM — · KRYS — · PFE — · UCB.BR — · IMGN — · ANNX — · CGON — · IVA — · ZURA — · AMGN — · NKTR — · 068270.KS — · HUMA — · SMMT -10.8% · MRNA —
13 posts 11 voices base 8.6
AI Hardware +0.8σ
SMCI -6.9% · CLS -11.1% · VPG -16.8%
+3 more 009150.KS — · TEL — · DELTA.BK —
14 posts 11 voices base 9.8
AI ASIC +0.6σ
MRVL -12.8% · ALAB -16.7% · AVGO -8.7%
+2 more ARM — · AMBA —
19 posts 14 voices base 13.8
NeoCloud +0.5σ
NBIS -13.2% · IREN -7.6% · CRWV -7.7%
+1 more DOCN —
32 posts 22 voices base 25.9
Commodities +0.5σ
USO — · GLD +0.7% · SLV -0.4%
+7 more WTI — · HO=F — · BNO — · UGA — · HG — · SILVER — · GC —
23 posts 14 voices base 20.2
Autos & EV +0.3σ
TSLA -10.1% · BMW +0.6% · 005380.KS -4.9%
+5 more F — · RACE — · BYDDF +1.2% · CON.DE — · AEVA —
26 posts 20 voices base 20.9
Space +0.3σ
SPCX —
13 posts 13 voices base 9.9
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

2 positions · 2 voices

Selective / waiting

1 positions · 1 voices

Fading / not buying

2 positions · 2 voices
YouTube
63 videos · 44h 42m Compass Datacenters' CEO says data-center demand is real but the industry needs higher standards to win local approval, and Tacora's Keri Findley says her firm has declined every GPU-backed financing proposal it reviewed. Open the desk →
X
1850 posts Bianco Research called the Democratic win of the Texas governorship the biggest market news of election night, while Gerstner expects 10-15 GW of expected AI build not to come online. Open the desk →
Reddit
282 threads Reddit split on the election: one r/StockMarket post warns of new AI data-center regulation after the change in Washington, another argues the results were already priced. Open the desk →
Substack
11 letters Rooster Global Portfolio Mastery Club posted sales of uranium holdings and of DVP and CSC, saying copper looks weak. Open the desk →