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Next edition in 204 min Oct 30, 2026, 09:00-16:00 Lisbon
Premarket Alpha Midday Alpha
Daily Alpha Midday Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What changed since premarket

Kioxia reported its 2027 NAND capacity sold out but guided quarterly profit below consensus; BofA cut iPhone estimates and flagged memory costs before Apple reports Monday; Exxon and Chevron beat on refining as Valero agreed to buy an idled Houston refinery; MediaTek raised its AI ASIC guide.

Main narratives

day change
01

Kioxia says its 2027 capacity is sold out while its profit forecast fell short of consensus

Per @skundojjala, Kioxia's September-quarter revenue rose 39% q/q to $15.4 billion at an 84% gross margin, calendar 2027 capacity is fully sold out, and long-term agreements cover more than 50% of 2028 bit shipments. Jukan relayed that Kioxia expects October-December net profit of ¥1.36 trillion, short of the ¥1.5932 trillion QUICK consensus. @thebigberbowski wrote that the market is focused on guidance implying sequential growth is slowing considerably.

285A.T -7.1% · KXIAY -19.6%
02

BofA cut its fiscal 2027 iPhone estimate by 9 million units and flagged memory costs before Apple reports Monday

BofA, as relayed by @firstadopter, lowered its F27 iPhone estimate to 247 million units versus a 260 million Street figure and sees a gross 900bp memory hit to iPhone gross margins, netted to 500bp, putting March-quarter company gross margin at 43.6-44.6% versus 47.7% Street estimates. On Bloomberg, LightShed's Walter Piecyk said the coming year looks harder, citing a roughly $2,000 foldable and carriers less willing to fund incremental subsidies.

AAPL -1.7%
03

Exxon and Chevron beat on refining, and Valero agreed to buy LyondellBasell's idled Houston refinery for $320.5 million

Bloomberg reported that Exxon and Chevron beat profit expectations as conflicts in the Middle East and Russia drove refining profits to a record high; Bloomberg's Kevin Crowley put combined earnings across the oil majors at roughly $56 billion. Separately, Valero plans to restart 165,000 barrels per day at LyondellBasell's idled Houston refinery by year-end 2027; TheValueist puts the price at roughly $1,940 per daily barrel against greenfield replacement cost above $25,000.

CVX +1.6% · VLO +3.1% · LYB +4.7%
04

MediaTek guided fourth-quarter AI ASIC revenue to $2.5 billion and Tokyo Electron put fiscal 2027 revenue at $23.3 billion

Per @skundojjala, MediaTek expects $2.5 billion of AI ASIC revenue in the fourth quarter versus prior $2 billion guidance and puts 2027 ASIC at the high end of its $16 billion target. Tokyo Electron's full-year FY27 is now $23.3 billion, up 44% in dollars, with memory reaching 49% of the second-half mix. HSBC, relayed by @pequityresearch, said none of the CCL makers it met expects that market to balance before 2029.

2454.TW -3.2% · TOELY —

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
Chip Manufacturing & Equipment +7.6σ
INTC -31.0% · 8035.T -5.2% · COHU -7.2%
+9 more ENTG — · ONTO — · TSM — · 3443.TW — · TSEM — · TOELY — · AMAT — · AEHR — · ASYS -7.3%
81 posts 50 voices base 20.6
Internet Platforms +6.7σ
RDDT -29.9% · PINS -4.4% · SNAP -6.7%
+1 more COUR —
33 posts 24 voices base 3.1
Oil & Gas +5.3σ
XOM +1.7% · CVX +1.6% · BP —
+12 more VLO +3.1% · CLMT +0.8% · DK +3.2% · MPC +2.4% · PSX +2.9% · LNG — · ET — · RELIANCE.NS — · EQNR — · TOU.TO — · VG — · BKR —
39 posts 15 voices base 8.8
Commodities +3.2σ
SLV -6.5% · GLD -3.6% · USO +1.1%
+9 more BNO — · SILVER — · HG — · GOLD — · OILK — · WTI +1.1% · GC — · PPLT — · CPER —
46 posts 21 voices base 18.1
Crypto Assets +3.0σ
BTC -5.4% · BNB — · HYPE -4.0%
+12 more ETH -4.6% · ZEC — · SOL — · NEAR — · PEPE — · PURR — · ELY — · USDC — · USDT — · LIT — · XMR — · PENDLE —
70 posts 38 voices base 34.0
Equity Indexes +2.6σ
SPY — · QQQ -4.1% · NQ —
+18 more ES=F — · EWY — · SPX — · XAU — · NASDAQ — · DIA — · SCHD — · VOO — · SPXU — · EWU — · QQQM — · VGK -1.1% · EWZ — · SP500 — · COMP — · ES — · IWM — · NDX —
75 posts 43 voices base 40.5
AI Hardware +2.6σ
JBL -6.3% · DUOT -6.0% · PENG -13.3%
+10 more 2317.TW — · DELL — · DXC — · CLS — · 009150.KS — · MTRS — · FLEX — · SMCI — · HPQ — · 0992.HK —
18 posts 13 voices base 8.5
Clean Energy +1.8σ
TE -8.0% · BE -10.8%
12 posts 7 voices base 5.3
Networking & Photonics +1.7σ
SIVE -9.6% · LITE -9.4% · AAOI -15.0%
+8 more ALMU — · OUST — · CRDO — · LWLG — · OCC — · GLW — · AXTI — · OPTX -15.5%
28 posts 10 voices base 18.1
Pharma & Biotech +1.5σ
IOVA -12.3% · ABBV +1.1% · AZN +7.0%
+12 more JNJ — · REGN — · VERA — · TGTX — · MDGL — · MRK — · GMAB — · ABVX — · SNY — · INSM — · GILD — · SLS —
23 posts 16 voices base 12.1
Thematic ETFs +1.2σ
SOXX -9.7% · SMH -8.1% · SOXL -29.1%
+21 more XLU — · DRAM — · XLP — · IGV — · XLK — · XLI -1.8% · XLE +1.4% · IBIT — · URA — · ICLN — · SKYY — · 114800.KS — · GRID — · MAGS — · SOXS — · AIQ — · XPH — · IALT — · XLV — · ITA — · PAVE -2.2%
34 posts 27 voices base 24.7
Hyperscalers +0.5σ
GOOGL -2.2% · AMZN -2.0% · MSFT -1.8%
+2 more META — · ORCL -6.9%
78 posts 56 voices base 52.1
Construction & Infrastructure +0.4σ
CAT -4.2% · 000720.KS -9.2% · 047040.KS -6.2%
+8 more 006360.KS — · 028260.KS — · WCC — · CEO — · PWR — · CNI — · ATEC — · NWG —
10 posts 10 voices base 7.3
Consumer Electronics +0.1σ
AAPL -1.7%
9 posts 8 voices base 8.7
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

3 positions · 3 voices

Selective / waiting

2 positions · 2 voices

Fading / not buying

2 positions · 2 voices
YouTube
23 videos · 17h 23m Exxon and Chevron beat on refining, LightShed's Walter Piecyk was skeptical on Apple before Monday's report, and Evercore's Mark Mahaney kept Amazon as a top pick. Open the desk →
X
1451 posts Kioxia's sold-out 2027 capacity and below-consensus profit forecast, MediaTek's higher AI ASIC guide, BofA's iPhone cut and Valero's refinery purchase led the substantive X posts. Open the desk →
Reddit
342 threads Reddit posts questioned Anthropic's reported gross margin and AMD's valuation, while a PayPal post put a $90-95 base case against a share price of about $56. Open the desk →
Substack
13 letters Rooster Global's author said their bias is to buy a lot more silver on confirmation of an uptrend. Open the desk →