Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit posts questioned Anthropic's reported gross margin and AMD's valuation, while a PayPal post put a $90-95 base case against a share price of about $56.
Themes on this desk
Alphabet after earnings
A r/ValueInvesting holder weighed Cloud growth against negative free cash flow and Search ad cannibalization, while a r/wallstreetbets author said they have been profiting on GOOGL puts.
Highest engagement
by score · day changePost alleges Anthropic's prospectus inflates gross margin
The author alleges direct costs are classified as sales and marketing, lifting reported gross margin to 85% versus under 70%, and derives a roughly $700 billion valuation versus a $1.5 trillion IPO price.
Anthropic is hiding its costs I looked into Anthropic's prospectus, and the more I read, the more questions I had.
The author's derived valuation is less than half the IPO price.
Source →ServiceNow fell 27% but still grew revenue 20%
ServiceNow fell 27% on weak contracted-growth guidance; the author notes it still grew revenue 20% and trades near 24x trailing free cash flow.
ServiceNow just had the worst day in its history.
The author asks whether the stock is disrupted or just repriced.
Source →Author plans to short AMD into Q3 earnings on valuation
The author argues AMD is extremely overvalued at 20x revenue and about 150x P/E and expects a big miss and an Intel-like repricing.
AMD is as overvalued as it gets.
It is a disclosed plan to short ahead of the report.
Watch AMD's Q3 earnings.
Source →Naver signs a $9 billion AI factory deal with Brookfield
The post reports Naver's $9 billion, 1GW-scale AI infrastructure deal with Brookfield, which satisfies a precondition for Nvidia's roughly $1 billion equity investment in Naver.
Naver Signs $9 Billion 1GW-scale AI Factory with Brookfield, Satisfying Precondition for Nvidia's $1 Billion Investment South Korea's Naver has
The deal clears a condition for Nvidia's investment.
Watch Nvidia's equity investment in Naver.
Source →PayPal bull case values shares at $90-95 versus about $56
The author argues PayPal's fraud-risk engine and buybacks can offset branded-checkout erosion, with a conservative base case of $90-95 per share.
PayPal's Hidden Moat Earns What The Button Loses The market prices PayPal as if its earnings will shrink for a
The thesis rests on the fraud engine offsetting checkout share losses.
Source →Most argued
by comments per upvoteInvestor is accumulating MPT at a 13% yield
The author is accumulating MPT, citing dividend coverage, debt reduction and rent collection while flagging rate and tenant risks.
13% Div yield for a REIT. $MPT. Affected by rates.
The post notes debt refinanced at nearly 10% and a 50% share-price drop over the past year.
Source →Intel's guide took Q4 gross margin from 44.1% to 38%
The post argues Intel beat Q3 but its Q4 guide, with gross margin falling from 44.1% to 38% and EPS from $0.52 to $0.25, signals PC weakness, margin compression and dilution outweighing data-center growth.
Intel beat its guide on every line, then fell ~24% overnight. The 8-K's guidance table explains it:
The author sees the guide outweighing data-center growth.
Watch Gross margin versus 38% and DCAI sequential growth.
Source →Author discloses a $400k long position in Oracle
The author discloses a $400k YOLO long position in Oracle.
Oracle long, brains short Oracle 400k YOLO
It is a disclosed single-stock position.
Source →Post calls Perplexity overvalued at $22 billion
The author argues Perplexity is overvalued at $22 billion, outclassed by Gemini and facing lawsuits, and predicts it becomes the next Pets.com.
The Elephant in the room - Perplexity Perplexity is worth 22 Billion dollars despite being entirely outclassed in every regard.
The author links Perplexity's valuation to an AI bubble.
Source →Investor says markets reward cash-funded AI capex and punish debt-funded spenders
After a hawkish Fed week and hyperscaler earnings, the author concludes investors reward cash-funded AI capex and punish debt-funded spenders, while staying invested in semis, memory and cloud via SMH and SOXX.
After the Big Tech shock, can today's wage data calm yields into month end?
The author holds Microsoft, Alphabet, SK hynix and Intel.
Source →