Daily Alpha · X
· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Kioxia's sold-out 2027 capacity and below-consensus profit forecast, MediaTek's higher AI ASIC guide, BofA's iPhone cut and Valero's refinery purchase led the substantive X posts.
Themes on this desk
Intel supply constraints
Per @skundojjala's notes from Intel's call, the industry is expected to stay supply-constrained through 2027 and into 2028, and Intel plans to increase substrate capacity by 40%, mostly in 2H27; @mkfilko argued the market sold the headline
Ticker heat
?
Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Kioxia's October-December profit forecast fell short of consensus
Kioxia expects consolidated net profit of ¥1.36 trillion for the October-December 2026 quarter, 15 times the year-earlier level but short of the ¥1.5932 trillion QUICK consensus.
Kioxia Holdings announced on October 30 that it expects consolidated net profit under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) to reach
Memory sales remain strong on AI investment, yet the forecast missed the market's prior estimate.
Watch Kioxia's October-December results against the ¥1.36 trillion forecast.
Source →BofA cuts its fiscal 2027 iPhone estimate to 247 million units on memory costs
BofA lowered its F27 iPhone estimate by 9 million units to 247 million versus a 260 million Street figure and sees a gross 900bp memory hit to iPhone gross margins, netted to 500bp.
BofA slashes Apple iPhone sales estimate and says Wall Street models for gross margin are WAY too high due to
BofA estimates March-quarter company gross margin at 43.6-44.6%, well below Street estimates of 47.7%.
Watch Apple's gross-margin guidance.
Source →Valero to buy LyondellBasell's idled Houston refinery for $320.5 million
Valero plans to restart 165,000 barrels per day of light sweet crude capacity by year-end 2027; TheValueist calculates about $1,940 per daily barrel against a greenfield replacement cost above $25,000 per barrel.
$VLO $MPC $PSX $DK $CLMT VALERO TO ACQUIRE FORMER LYONDELL HOUSTON REFINERY Valero is buying LyondellBasell's idled Houston refinery for
Even with $1 billion of restart capex, TheValueist puts the all-in cost at a third or less of replacement value.
Watch Deal close, expected by end of 2026 subject to HSR review.
Source →Kioxia says calendar 2027 capacity is fully sold out
Kioxia's September-quarter revenue rose 39% q/q and 405% y/y to $15.4 billion at 84% gross margin, above the $14.8 billion guide; long-term agreements cover more than 50% of 2028 bit shipments.
Kioxia QSep26 - Revenue up 39% q/q and 405% y/y to $15.4B (above the $14.8B guide) at 84% GM;
Blended ASP rose mid-20s% q/q while bit shipments rose low-teens.
Watch December-quarter revenue against the $15.9 billion guide.
Source →MediaTek guides fourth-quarter AI ASIC revenue to $2.5 billion
MediaTek expects $2.5 billion of AI ASIC revenue in the fourth quarter versus prior $2 billion guidance, with fourth-quarter revenue up 30% q/q to $6.8 billion and 2027 ASIC at the high end of its $16 billion target.
MediaTek 4Q26 - Revenue up 9.1% q/q and 10.7% y/y to $5.25B at 46.3% GM;
Its second-generation ASIC uses Intel's EMIB-T, and a second ASIC customer, not from China, is confirmed with revenue beginning in 2028.
Watch Second accelerator on track for production in 1Q28.
Source →