KX KXIAY Kioxia Holdings Corp ADR Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

The author agrees with the possibility of a post-earnings dip in MU and memory names but views it as a buying opportunity, while still long and bullish on memory.

NAND prices have risen 246% since Q1 2025, 2026 capacity is fully sold out, and AI inference bit-demand is growing at >100% CAGR (vs consensus 86%), driven by agentic AI and KV cache offloading via Nvidia’s ICMSP. The market underestimates the permanence of NAND shortages. Kioxia, as the low-cost producer with plans to double capacity by 2029, is uniquely positioned to capture margin expansion as supply remains tight through 2028. Kioxia will continue to “moon” because structural NAND demand from AI inference is far larger than consensus estimates, and physical limits on vertical stacking prevent a repeat of historical oversupply cycles. YMTC’s 120-140k wafer/month capacity addition in late 2027/2028 could flood supply earlier than expected. Geopolitical tensions may disrupt Kioxia’s manufacturing or export. A sudden slowdown in AI adoption or compression breakthroughs could curb bit demand.