Marvell is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Lumentum; Samsung says long-term agreements could cover 60-70% of its memory capacity through 2030; X analysts tie Microsoft's capex shortfall to delayed neocloud leases; KLA expects 2027 wafer equipment spending above $200 billion.
Bloomberg reports Marvell is in advanced talks to buy Lumentum. Paradis Labs notes Lumentum's CEO has said it is sold out into 2029 and argues owning the fab may be the only way Marvell can guarantee laser supply, but says the deal has to be mostly stock. TengyanAI puts the deal near $99 billion, says Marvell fell 8.4% while Lumentum rose 3.5%, and warns Marvell risks paying a peak scarcity price.
Samsung reported Q3 operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, while net profit of 75.21 trillion won missed a 89.06 trillion estimate, and it sees 2026 capex at 84.4 trillion won versus 52.7 trillion in 2025. It has signed long-term supply agreements with 10 major customers, is negotiating with 10 more, and said the memory shortage will worsen in 2027. Shares slid as much as 6.6% on the lack of a new shareholder-return plan, per Bloomberg.
@jiahanjimliu writes that Microsoft's capex miss and calendar-year outlook cut, from about $175 billion to $170 billion, were attributed to third-party GPU-as-a-service delays. Citing a former CFO's finance-lease accounting analysis, @jiahanjimliu says the delay is most likely Nscale's; the CFO adds the $5 billion figure is somewhat overstated. On Odd Lots, Barclays' Alex Altmann said neoclouds lack operating cash flow and rely on capital markets.
KLA reported September-quarter revenue of $4.14 billion, up 29% year on year, and guided the December quarter to $4.7 billion. It raised its 2026 wafer-fab equipment view, including advanced packaging, to the mid-$150 billions from the low-$150 billions in July and expects more than $200 billion in 2027. It also expects about $1.1 billion of 2026 advanced-packaging process-control revenue, up more than 70%, and memory's share of process-control sales to reach 40% in December.
@kevinxu says they are all in $AAOX (2x leverage) in a challenge account, saying a Marvell acquisition of Lumentum means a big day for AAOI.
On r/wallstreetbets, one trader reported buying 400 GOOGL shares at 280 and another bought 100 GOOG shares in overnight trading.
On Bloomberg, Sanjeev Rana said a catalyst remains for Samsung, while the segment noted Samsung's shareholder-return details were postponed to January.
A Reddit 10-Q review says Q4 cRPO against the 18.5% guide is the test of whether subscription growth decelerates below 20%.
Barclays' Alex Altmann contrasts cash-rich hyperscalers with neoclouds, which lack operating cash flow and rely on capital markets; Alfred Chuang on Bloomberg said leveraged AI neoclouds face consolidation.
Altmann notes the market's perception that memory is at peak earnings keeps multiples low, and @liwei_twcapital warns China's state-backed capacity could make memory a brutal cyclical commodity business after 2029.